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EEM trade ideas

Buy the EEM versus a short in the SPY for 2014There are times when one gets ahead of the other but it hasn't stayed that way forever. As the year-end is upon us, perhaps there is more potential in the next 12 months to be long the EEM (Emerging Markets) instead of the S&P500. Risk 10%, Goal 10%. Probability 75% (my impression) of profit. Would anyone like to comment on the valuation disparity between these ETF's and make a fundamental analysis? Or, feel free to wait for my analysis. Monday, December 16, 2013 10:28AM EST
AMEX:EEM
by timwest
7
Ben Bernanke Speaks and Emerging Markets Taking a HitSince the crash of 2008 emerging markets have seen enormous amounts of capital inflows. As you can see with volume on this chart money has poored into a very popular Emerging Market ETF, EEM. If you look closely, after significant corrections emerging markets are leading US markets. So look for EEM to push out of this recent correction at a higher rate of return compared to the S&P, DJIA and Nasdaq. What the chart is telling us with this volume and Fibonacci study, emerging markets have capitulated in the near term. On balance volume OBV is near the 2011 US market/Emerging market bottom. Chaiken Money Flow as well as the Elder Force Index, both volume indicators, are suggesting capitulation as well. If I were to use CMF and EFI, I would wait to see both cross the 0 median line before getting bullish. Another new indicator is the volume weighted-adjusted moving average VWMA. The Volume Weighted Moving Average is a weighted moving average that uses the volume as the weighting factor, so that higher volume days have more weight. It is a non-cumulative moving average, in that only data within the time period is used in the calculation. When the VWMA is distant from the actual price, it suggest capitulation. On weekly the VWMA is at 42.07 while price barely stands on a recent fib line at 38.61. Looking at price action we can see we have made higher highs and lower lows since the 2011 drop. With the larger fib line (shown on the thumbnail image, not here} we might want to look at is the .382 retrace at 37.90 for support and 37.21 for further support/possible weekly tweezer bottom in the near term.
AMEX:EEM
by QuantitativeExhaustion
2
Long SPY, Short EEM PAIRS TRADEIt looks to me that the S&P500 is leading the Emerging Markets Index, setting up a disparity that could be resolved in any number of ways: 1. The S&P could rally and the EEM could rally less. 2. The S&P could continue to fall, and the EEM could fall more. 3. The S&P could stabilize, and the EEM could slide lower. The risk isn't very high in this pair, but keep the risk to 3% and the upside is approximately 5%. You can see that they are 3.6% apart in performance since June (EEM +8.48% - SPY +4.81% = 8.4-4.8 = 3.6)
AMEX:EEM
by timwest