#EWG German Market Index ready for a retracement?We seem to be reversing off the top of this multi-channel area at 31.25. In Addition, RSI has bearish divergence and we also recently had a demark13 countdown which could signal an exhaustion in trend. Watch for a reversal to take place off the current area. Perhaps a move back to the 50day moving average which currently sits at +- 29.60 and rising daily, is a potential short term target.
EWG trade ideas
EWG , LONG, if we take back the 50 sma while respecting S2 .Well the doom and gloom news came out today and net short levels went up 3% to 78% .
The news is that Germany is officially in a recession .
The news is bad , the consensus is that this has to go down .
So, time to long , the temptation is to get long right now but my rules don't allow it , for we are below the 50 sma .
So in the bushes I go, to wait, watch and maybe pounce..... Then probably scare people walking by👹.
That's the plan , I will change my mind if the bears see a win with follow-through and a breakdown of levels, but today we closed green so that's good enough to at least get me interested .
* The net short levels are marked on chart using signposts
* The net short levels are based on IG traders accounts positioning
EWGIn 2022, Europe faced a number of challenges that had a significant impact on the region. High energy prices, inflation, and the war in Ukraine all contributed to a difficult economic and political climate. It was predicted that these dark days would continue for longer than expected, but there were a few bright spots amid the gloom.
One of those bright spots was the EWG ETF, which had seen a remarkable turnaround from its low point in October 2022. In fact, as of the end of the year, it was up 47% from that low, which was an impressive feat given the challenges faced by the region. Similarly, the EUR USD had also rebounded, with a 15% increase from its low point in September 2022.
Looking at the Elliott Wave theory, the low point in October 2022 can be seen as the start of a major uptrend wave C. However, it's worth noting that we're currently in the middle of a trend channel, and the momentum in the rate of change is slowing down. This could be an indication that a short-term correction is on the horizon, even if the overall uptrend remains intact.
Despite the challenges faced by Europe in 2022, there were signs of resilience and optimism in the market. While the region's problems were far from over, the impressive performance of the EWG ETF and the EUR USD provided a glimmer of hope for investors and traders. As always, it's important to stay informed and keep an eye on the market to anticipate any potential shifts or corrections that may be on the horizon.
German 40 , Net short update per Daily Fx trader data German 40 shorts are getting more and more aggressive , this has been the theme all year long , they refuse to believe that this is a bull market and continuer to short more and more .
**The same is true for:
Dow jones at 64% net short ,
US 500 at 63% net short
France 40 at 84% net short
and FTSE 100 at 85% net short
All the big markets are net short per traders positions in daily FX .
Love it ~
Long EWGEuropean equities have been an out performers for 23 and I look for that trend to continue. This can be accomplished by a long position in EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF. At the moment the rally should be entering a good supply zone so I will look to add to longs on any pullback which should be short and shallow.
My 2023 posts will not be as detailed . Hey everyone , so those that looked at my previous ideas know that I was pretty good at posting profit targets and stops last year .
I think that was an important step for me to get a consistent process down , I am still following that exact same trade management and have no intentions of changing it , trading like that gave me a positive expectancy in a very bad year for the market so no point in changing it.
However, this year, I am going to re focus on my career related work and I will likely be working lots of 7 day and 6 day weeks with 10 to 12 hour average days . So less time Infront of a monitor and more time on a jobsite . Trading is my passion , I love it and I am not going anywhere , this will be something I work at for my whole life. However, for now I am going to refocus on my other work and to do that I will make some concessions .
From now on , I will still post entries and exits but that is all . No more trade management updates and many of the trades will be posted in the evenings after close as I will be busy working on a jobsite when many of the trades are taken .
For anyone that watched my previous ideas/trades , in 2022 especially , you can look at the trade management on them and that is what I am doing on and and all posted trades going forward . I will not post entry or exit price , but it will be easy enough to deduce from the charts " long/short position box" .
Good luck going into 2023 ~
....Side note check out the net short levels on this Germany fund , contrarian indicator ? Looks like France 40 and German 40 are kicking some bear butt in early stage two uptrend's
US outperforms EU in absolute terms when $ rises against €Thesis: US markets outperform EU markets in absolute terms when $ rises against €.
EWG/SPY (Germany ETF/SPY both in $) vs EURUSD (red line)
I've read many opinions on what happens to US stocks (versus EU stocks) when the dollar rises. Usually people say a strong dollar is bad for US exporters as their revenues will fall and labour costs will rise. Similarly they say a weak euro is good for EU exporters as their foreign revenues rise and labour costs fall. And comparisons are often made between national indexes, which take no account of currency, and are thus pointless IMHO.
So this chart shows that the common sense view is completely wrong. It compares EWG (Germany ETF in US$) divided by SPY - which I'm using as a proxy for EU outperformance over US - and EURUSD. As you can see, they are very strongly correlated.
In other words when the $ started strengthening in 2008, the US indices started outperforming the EU indices. And in the previous cycle, when the dollar started weakening around 2002, and the euro strengthened, the EWG outperformed the SPY. And in the cycle before that, which ended around 2001/2003, € weakness again correlated very well with EWG weakness.