Potential long on Brazil $EWZ ETFIs it time to become a Brazil bull?
+ AMEX:EWZ iShares ETF down nearly 70% from ATH
+ Pays an indicated 7% dividend
+ Milei's success in Argentina hopefully ignites a free market renaissance across LatAm
EWZ trade ideas
Opening (IRA): EWZ July 19th 31 Monied Covered Call... for a 30.31 debit.
Comments: Decent 30-day IV at 34.0%, but I'm primarily looking to position myself to grab the June dividend. IV is skewed to the put side in this underlying, so the general go-to would be short put, but to grab the dividend, you have to be in stock.
Because I want the extrinsic in the short call to exceed any dividend, I'm basically going at-the-money/slightly monied with the short call and will look to manage the position after the dividend drops. Unfortunately, the distribution has been wildly variant, so it's hard to tell how much extrinsic to keep in the short call to diminish the prospect of being called away early due to some dick exercising their long call early to grab the dividend.
Metrics (Sans Dividend):
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 30.31
Max Profit: .69
ROC at Max: 2.28%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.14%
JADE LIZARD Trade Idea for Jan 2025JADE LIZARD
$33 Call 1/17/2025 Buy
$32 Call 1/17/2025 Sell
-{Current Share Price: $29.77}-
$29 Put 1/17/2025 Sell
Approx $175 credit as of 10/2.
Jade Lizard = Credit from short put (below the price) exceeds max loss of call credit spread (above the price).
Worst case scenario is owning 100 shares of the iShares Brazil ETF @ around $27.25 per share, (which seems totally fine).
Argentina and India outperform across emerging marketsAmong emerging markets, Argentina and India have been booming.
Whereas countries like South Africa and Brazil have been stagnating (as measured by global ETFs).
EWZ setting up multi-year breakout
Brazil boasts a strong investment case compared to an overvalued US market, which is historically trading at depressed multiples. The global scenario is looking positive for emerging market equities, like ewz and small cap brf with slower GDP deceleration, resilient commodity prices, and inflation control. Higher commodity exports are generally positive for Brazil’s currency (BRL) and equities. The technical set up is straight forward, from the 2020 high and low the price is consolidating ready to break above the descending trendline. If the fib retrace holds and the price can move past the high volume node which coincides with the breakout of the trendline around 32 we may see the start of a multi-year advance.
Brazil $EWZ Hanging on by a thread - ShortMacro view of Brazil. Symmetrical wedge with a bias to the downside due to the price being below all macro VWAP + large volume shelf. Short on the macro basis.
Opening (IRA): EWZ Sept 20th 25 Short Put... for a .53 credit.
Comments: In for a penny ... . In for a pound. With the July 19th 28 short put looking ripe for assignment (it's still got time, so you never know), adding a rung here out in Sept (there is no August monthly yet).
The current position is a Dec 20th 29 Covered Call with a 28.44 break even, a July 19th 28 short put, and a Sept 20th 25 short put. I'll look to add a rung in August once it becomes available, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on ... .
Opening (IRA): EWZ July 19th 28 Short Put... for a .65 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put element to my EWZ covered call ... . Here, it was either sell the 21 delta 27 for .36 or be more aggressive and sell the 30 delta for .65.
Do I really want more shares of EWZ? Not particularly. That being said, IV isn't horrid here at 26.5%, and there is the divvy to be had (8.20% annualized) so picking up additional shares wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing ... .
EWZ - Brazil was forgotten and will comebackWhile China, India, Russia and the Middle East have been very noticed, Brazil has been overlooked. With the discussion of the end of the dollar's hegemony, it may be a good time to look at emerging markets. Despite controversial policies, it is a country without problematic neighbors and with many natural resources. The areas and lines on the chart are support or resistance areas, with confluence in the fibonacci retracement and projection. The next few years look promising for EWZ.
A chance for Brazil to shineLooks like large and mid-sized companies in Brazil will have a nice little run up in the coming weeks. Chart is bullish on daily and weekly cycle. Taking a long here.
EWZ May Fall Down to 30.75 - 30.45 in the Medium TermAfter breaking bellow a bearish flag-like consolidation, EWZ reached the contracted objective point at 32.00 in an agreement support zone. Market is now testing the broken line from the downside in a pull back movement. If the broken line can hold the market, EWZ tends to reach the next target in the objective point area at 30.75 - 30.45, which is also an agreement support.
EWZ has broken and retested its long-term downtrendThe EWZ (Brazil ETF) has used to be in a downtrend in USD terms since 2008. It has now broken and retested the resistance and looks ready for reaching higher highs. Fundamentally, it is trading at ~7x P/E with a large part of the index and the country economy being possibly fueled by a renewed commodities cycle.
EWZ: Long Brazilian EquitiesThis emerging market is breaking a 15 year downtrend, and I expect it to follow India. Countries that stay neutral in crazy geopolitical times tend to do very well. There are a lot of fundamental reasons to long Brazil that I won't enumerate here, commodity-rich etc, interest rates, etc.
The TA is the main thing here, TP 1 will get hit this year, and TP 1 Would be about 48, imo. TP2, $91.20 as I have it on the chart, could get hit earlier or by 2026 I'm not sure. I think that there could be a move symmetric and inverted to the 2008 down move (longer of course), but markets love mean reversion.
On the side of risk, China is dumping and they are Brazil's biggest supporter, so I believe that is the downside risk and why you should enforce the stop around $31.
EWZ Bear Call spread at 2nd order selling +1 sig retestSymbol EWZ
Open Date 11/6/2023
Bear Call or Bull Put Call
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 34.5
Long Strike 36
Price to Open 0.18
Min Width Multiple 3
Risk Ratio 7.33
Return on Risk 13.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.30%
Max Annual ROI % 108.2%
Longer term, the buyer stepped in on the -1 sig test Oct 6
Rebought the Bearish range -1 sig and the selle did not come back at the aggregate range anchor -2 sig.
Candles past 5 days have gotten short and small.
Price is about to test the 2nd order selling range at +1 sig.
I anticipate that this seller returns with some capital and begins a push down.
So +2 sig above it from the 2nd aggregate seller and the Long term buyer is also above it.
Which is why I sold the 34.5 strike at 4 wide.
It's not that great a yield at 13%, but it's a sound technical idea IMO.
The trade here is to get a return of the 2nd order seller at its +1 sig and allow some time for the 12/22 Calls to die.
I only anticipate a push lower into maybe 31 or 30.75 where the buyer may resume.
So this Bearish position I need to watch closely to see how it reacts to the shortest Bull range -1 sig in the Blue shaded range.
I will buy back this position at breakeven or small profit if the approach and reaction at -1 sig, currently at 30.62 and probably 31 into the future, is a strong Bullish response leaving gaps and imbalances on the 15 min.
(Incorporating ICT orderflow reading)
EWZEWZ (Brazil ETF) looks extremely bullish. If it can break out of this wedge pattern, this thing can explode to the upside.
Brazil ETF Could Be Breaking OutThe iShares MSCI Brazil ETF has squeezed into a tight range since the coronavirus pandemic, but now it could be nearing a breakout.
Today’s chart uses two-week candles to display the price action since 2016.
First consider the falling trendline since December 2019, along the highs of 2021, 2022 and earlier this year. EWZ jumped above the line last week after cooler-than-expected inflation sank the U.S. dollar. Traders may watch to see whether EWZ can hold these levels or add to the gains.
Second is the gradually rising trendline since 2016. Notice how the ETF made a higher low at the end of September above the support. That may reflect an accelerating uptrend.
Third, prices bounced around $25 in July 2022 and March 2023. That double bottom may confirm the presence of lurking buyers.
Fourth, the recent price compression (highlighted by Bollinger Bandwidth) may give way to price expansion .
Finally, investors could focus on valuations and the macro environment as the New Year approaches. EWZ trades for less than half the P/E ratio of the S&P 500. Investors may also see opportunities in global assets if the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken.
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ):
1-year: -8.88%
5-years: -25.85%
10-years: -40.65%
(As of Oct. 31, 2023)
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EWZ Looking Interesting Resource rich countries should preform nicely over the next 5 - 10 years.
EWZ is looking good for a long term break out.
EWZThe Brazilian market looks like it wants to breakout in a big way. If we can get the USD to weaken then that would give us more evidence that a breakout is coming. Lets wait and see...
EWZHI MY BRAZILIAN FOLLOWERS me personally seeing brazilian stocks attractive nowadays in terms of creating bullish wedge pattern since 2012 so after it drops to 26 dollar i will buy that in longterm goal.
Goooood Luuuuuuuck
EWZ Tightening In Macro Triangle: Breakout Loading? Here we are looking at EWZ on the Weekly TF!
As you can see, EWZ is currently at its MACRO downwards sloping resistance line, which dates all the way back to 2008 when the Brazilian Market put in its all time highs.
Since then, price has worked its way down, with many break out attempts of this line. Ultimately, each of the breakout attempts thus far have failed, but the chart has always found support at its macro upwards sloping trend line.
As price interacts with resistance, it’s important to recognize that price has really began squeezing between resistance and support, as it works to the APEX of this Macro Triangle structure.
If the EWZ continues to fall from its latest test, we should look for it find support at about $25, where the current support line rests around. Ultimately, I expect this to break out from resistance, and IF it can, I’d expect a nice run to follow!
As always this isn’t intended as financial advice, and I always recommend making your own financial decisions!
I will continue to update you on this chart as I see fit… Cheers!
EWZHi,Guys EWZ it lokks like a rocket which is filling its fuel tank ready for its taker off and over 30 percent gain on that ...if you dont have this etf in your basket dont jump on gun please wait it breaks the wedge pattern to the upside then after retrace maybe you can find long setup.....
Goooooood Luuuuuuuuck
Brazil looks like a good opportunity. On the longer term, Brazil looks to be an attractive opportunity. It is a very resource rich country coming into a commodity boom.
