EWZ trade ideas
EWZ all of my special trend lines shows short is nowwhat say you ?
I dont usually short tripple top...
tripple top is not double top. thats for sure
Short EWZShort EWZ on touch of long term resistance line and apparent continuation of long term bear market. However, if current correction leads to an additional wave up and breakout from the trend, the trade will be stopped and there are high chances of reversal towards long term bull market.
Brazil went down big, let's sell premium (Big lizard)After some negative news about bribery in the government the Brazil's ETF (EWZ) got killed at the open with a 18% down move.
With the Implied volatility rank of the stock at the high's of the last 52 weeks(100%) it means that buying options is going to be expensive, in other words we are going to be selling overpriced options.
Betting that this is an over reaction and wanting to take as much credit as possible, I decided to sold a big lizard (Straddle with no upside risk) to get a nice premium.
The trade:
64 days to expiration
Sold the 33 Calls
Sold the 33 Puts
Buy the 36.5 Calls (no upside risk)
Collected 3.95 per contract
Target price will be at 25%
Brazil Further Downside ExpectedFairly textbook descending triangle breakdown. Volume expected to slant down, go flat until breakdown, then increase into another slant down marked by black arrows.First measured move was correct for the breakdown. 2nd measured move marks my ultimate target price and blue arrows show the path I expect price to take.
Long EWZ: Target Price $52 from $35Head and shoulders pattern. EWZ broke out the primary downtrend. Next step $52.
EWZ - POTENTIAL BOTTOM23.05.17
Signal for a potential bottom from one of my dBFIs
Awaiting confirmation
OPENING: EWZ JULY 21ST 26/28/38.5/40.5 IRON CONDOR... for a .61 credit.
With EWZ caving heftily here and implied volatility popping, I'm going back to the Brazilian well narrow and small, since I can foresee this having some volatility in it for a bit, in which case I may want to add to the position.
Metrics:
POP%: 63%
Max Profit: $61/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $139/contract
BE's: 27.39/39.11
Theta: .69
Delta: .7
Notes: I'll look to take this off at 50% max ... .
EWZ weekly chartEWZ is showing sign of life testing its weekly resistance. If it gets through here, we can have a better move to the low and mid 40s
EWZ weekly - not looking goodSo far uncertain if it is just technical based selling or any fundamental reasons. It is a sell once it breaks 40 weeks MA (which is 200 days MA).
TRADE IDEA: EWZ MAY 19TH 32/37/37/41 DYNAMIC IRON FLYWith a six-month implied volatility percentile of 76 and a background implied volatility of 37, throwing a touch of "Brazilian" on here ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: $247/contract
Max Loss: $253/contract
Break Evens: 34.53/39.47
Theta: 1.77
Delta: -.29
Notes: Will look to manage this at 25% max ... .
EEM/EWZ pairs trade (covered strangles)EWZ and the Emerging Markets ETF EEM have a strong correlation (Since EEM have 7.7% of brazil stocks). The correlation for the last year have been .92, and the last 30 days have drop to .40.
Today we got a strong move on EWZ of -3.18% at the time of the trade and -.64% on EEM. By trading one to the upside and the other to the downside I will look to reduce risk on this trade until time has passed enough to take my profits.
The trade is two Synthetic Covered Strangles
EEM 38.5/40.5 Calls for $1.92 credit
EWZ 38.5/35 Puts for $2.95 credit
In total we got $4.87 credit (1 to 1 ratio) and will look to close at $2.00.
I don't do a lot of these trades, but I find them very interesting so lets if in the next 30 days we can close for profits.
Trend-follow signals : EWZIf you are a trend following trader, find instruments and timeframes that satisfy your trending filters and just follow these signals. But remember:
consolidation period can be brutal to a trend following strategy. Also, the longer the trend, the greater the chance for a reversal.
With that in mind, make sure you apply proper money management.
Bullish EWZLooking for the breakout of this triangle consolidation and a C leg for this flag formation
EWZ weekly - buy breakout - 1/4/2017EWZ bounced up from 40 week MA, coincidental with RSI rising channel support. Wait for a breakout (and a positive MACD) for buy confirmation.
