Flag Formation on EWZAfter the accumulation zone, EWZ can pump up.
Important Fibonacci Levels:
-20,0
-26,9
-31,0
-34,2
-37,7
-42,2
-48,4
EWZ trade ideas
Opening (Margin): EWZ October 21st 28/35 Short Strangle... for a 1.18 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 62/47. Selling the ~20 delta strikes or so both sides. 1.18 credit on buying power effect of 3.18. 37.1% ROC at max; 18.6% at 50% max. Delta/theta -5.06/3.13.
Closed: EWZ August 19th 23 Short Puts... for a .23/contract debit.
Comments: Filled for .47/contract (See Post Below), hit 50% max today. .24 ($24) profit/contract.
E7 CountriesI’d like an ETF for E7 Countries, holding their ETFs (Brazil EWZ; China MCHI; India INDA; Indonesia EIDO; Mexico EWW; Russia ERUS; Turquia TUR).
Theses countries has been more GDP upside than the G7 Countries. An this must go on.
*** The Russia ETD was excluded for the “index” because it isn’t been working on.
I’ll include the ETF ERUS after the war.
Opening: EWZ August 19th 23 Short Put... for a .47/contract credit.
Comments: Selling some 15 delta premium in the Brazil exchange-traded fund (IVR/IV 83/54) on weakness. .47 on buying power effect of 2.31 (on margin). 20.3% ROC at max; 10.2% ROC at 50% max.
EWZ Brazil, a commodities proxy is now in Wave 3 of IIIWith the current fear of recession & rising inflation in the US, a lot of funds will be flowing outside into emerging markets, China & also Brazil which is rich in commodities especially now that the dollar seems to be peaking out as foreign markets slowly becomes more attractive to invest in.
EWZ may retrace down first to fill the gap at 33.65 green line. A bounce from here will enable a near 20% rally to the 0.618 red zone at 40 to 42.43.
42.43 will be a strong pivot point since it is the intersection of the 0.50 red dotted FIB level of my slanted FIB CHANNEL with 1.272 FIB of the recent wave 2. EWZ is currently in the wave 3 of 3 of a larger wave III.
Not trading advice
EWZ Long Term PlayOne of my followers asked me for a long term play, here's one.
EWZ (Brazil) is still at the same level as 2008. It's in a pennant and looks like it will break upward. Why? What does 2022 and 2007 have in common? High oil and commodity prices.
Materials and Energy is 40% of EWZ plus the currency is rallying because of oil. I suppose you can play DBC (commodity index fund) instead if you prefer or both. DBC is now finally back to 2007 levels.
Now that I think about it, it probably makes sense to park my money in DBC as an inflation hedge.
Closing: EWZ June 17th 27 Short Puts... for .18/contract debit.
Comments: A little bounce, a little volatility contraction ... . In for a .71/contract credit (See Post Below); out for .18 here with 28 days to go. .53 ($53) profit/contract.
Opening: EWZ June 17th Short Puts... for a .71/contract credit.
Comments: Taking a directional shot on weakness here and in high IVR/IV (92/46). .71/contract credit on buying power effect of 2.71; 26.2% ROC as a function of buying power effect at max; 13.1% at 50% max.
Brazil- History RhymesThe commodity 'super cycle' trade is definitely over crowded. Likely to see another pull back, possible to lower bound.
Ongoing commodity tightness in the next decade would benefit Brazilian equities.
Brazilian Real, showing strength.
Observe , build confidence.
Not for the faint hearted.
#BRAZIL Looks bullish, let's see if it samba! #EWZ #BRAZIL Looks bullish, let's see if it samba! #EWZ . Dollar cost average if drops to 26$. Couple of months timeframe.
I dont know why but it should go up :P
EWZ LongNot as other EM, Brazil sees it's stock market prices surge. Having not applied sanctions to Russia, and being a strong commodities economy, we see EWZ price surge.
Watch out for inflation.
Closed: EWZ June 17th 25 Long P/March 18th 26/30... for a 4.76 credit.
Comments: The most I could make on this was 5.00 (the width of the diagonal), so closed it out here with 39 days to go, rather than roll out the short call to April or hang out for the remaining extrinsic to bleed out. My cost basis in the entire setup was a 4.22 debit. (See Post Below). Closing it out here for a 4.76 credit results in a small winner of .54 ($54).
$EWZ Weekly Pivot Point - Trend is now upTrader Vic (Victor Sperandeo) says you gotta go long here !
By his "Principles of Professional Speculation" , EWZ weekly has broken down trend and pivoted to an up trend.
I'm also liking the volume and and MACD bullish confluence.
I went long starter size March 32/34 debit spread , and will add with more confirmation.
Some whale also bought 17K of these at $1.14 on Friday , let's see !
Closed (IRA): EWZ June 17th 25 Long Calls... for 7.45/contract.
Comments: With the short leg having expired worthless, went ahead and closed out the long leg of this diagonal here rather than covering it again. My cost basis was 6.37/contract as of the last short leg roll. (See Post Below). Closing out the long leg here results in a 1.08 ($108)/contract winner (which seemed to have taken forever).
Brazil ETF Breaks the DowntrendThe iShares MSCI Brazil ETF has skidded lower since the summer, but now it may be reversing higher.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish trendline running along the highs of June, July and December. EWZ broke above that line last week and has remained there since – even as the S&P 500 crashed to a seven-month low.
Next consider the 10- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Crosses of these two SMAs have been effective intermediate directional signals several times in the last two years, as the white arrows show.
Third is the support zone around $26.56 from late October 2020, which EWZ held earlier this month.
Finally the macro environment may favor the fund’s holdings, which focus on natural resources (energy and metals). They also trade at relatively low multiples compared with big growth stocks.
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Rolled: EWZ February 18th 32 Short Call to March 18th 30 Call... for a .38 credit.
Comments: Rolled the short call aspect of my long call diagonal, the back month of which is in June at the 25 strike. There wasn't much extrinsic left in it, so I first looked at rolling down to the 30 intraexpiry, but that wasn't paying squat, so rolled it down and out to a strike slightly above my cost basis/break even, which is now 4.54 with a 29.54 break even.
I still also have the 24 short put on, but that still has .30 left in it, so will wait until it approaches worthless before rolling.
EWZ starting to materializeI posted this idea back in mid November laying out some reasons why I'm bullish on Brazilian equities, since then I've been accumulating under 28.50. Over the past week we've seen increased buying amid Dollar weakness and the trade looks like it's starting to work.
$EWZ holding a key supportLong term triangle about to break out. Has a strong support @26.50, the last time the ETF was at this level in Nov 20 it went back up very fast. Lets see if this can go to $31 to take a long position.
BRAZIL will recover fast; best position for range trade.I thinks wave 2 has already bottomed at 17.60 in this weekly chart. Now at the base of an accumulation range…finishing with a hammer candle. Best to wait for next candle confirmation. Stoich RSI turning up.
You may range trade …buy at 27 & sell at 48 with some volatility at 37 to 39 mid zone.
Once Brazil’s economy restarts in full gear, Wave 3 of the bigger wave 3 have to continue.
Opened: EWZ February 18th 24 Short Put... for a .53 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put element to what was a long call diagonal (June 17th 25 Long Call/February 18th 32 Short Call). Up to this point, my cost basis in the diagonal alone was 5.45, implying a 30.45 break even relative to where EWZ is currently trading at 27.90. I wanted to bring the setup break even closer to where EWZ is currently trading, and selling this put results in a net cost basis of 4.92 with a break even of the long call strike (25) + 4.92 or 29.92.
I'll look to roll the short strangle (short put/short call) as a unit to reduce cost basis further, assuming we don't get a bodice ripper up to >32, at which point the diagonal should begin to converge on max.
Swing trading EWS Brazil EtfEWZ Brazil Etf building a base where you may swing trade the 31 to 48 range. Cut loss below 26.50 the most recent low for a good risk to reward ratio.
In this weekly chart, I think the ABC down from May 2008 top is already completed in 2016 & we are now in the wave 3 of the new cycle.
If it bounces from the 27-28 zone, there is a 50% potential upside in this trading range in 2022.
Note: It completed a big M-Gartley pattern bottoming in 2016 at wave 2 @17.61. From 2016 till now, it is building a channel base for a huge Wave 3 in 2022.
Rolling: EWZ January 21st 32 Short Call to February... for a .25 credit.
Comments: The short call aspect of a long call diagonal, the back month long of which is at June 25 strike. Rolling at >50% max, reducing my cost basis further in the setup, which is now at 5.45 with a 31.45 break even.
