EWZ trade ideas
The Week Ahead: EWZ, MJ, XLE, IWM/RUT Premium SellingHighly Options Liquid Single Name With Earnings in the Rear View Mirror Ranked by 30-Day Implied With a 30-Day >50% and a Share Price >$10:
FCEL (0/104)
M (11/75)
CCL (0/59)
PLAY (0/59)
CHWY (0/52)
Highly Options Liquid Exchange-Traded Funds Ranked by 30-Day Implied With a 30-Day >35%:
EWZ (8/73)
MJ (2/51)
XLE (0/48)
XRT (2/41)
GDXJ (6/41)
LIT (18/38)
XBI (36/36)
Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ranked by 30-Day:
IWM (1/27)
QQQ (0/23)
SPY (0/16)
Musings:
If it isn't obvious, the number of exchange-traded funds with a 30-day implied volatilty percentage >35% have dwindled dramatically over the past several weeks, limiting premium selling opportunities if you're not interested in playing single name. That being said, it's not a bad time to relax a little bit, allow plays you've put on in higher volatility to play out, and wait for "the next one," whether it be in the market as a whole, or in a given sector. Since I've already got plays on in EWZ and MJ (See Posts Below), I may consider something in XLE, with the caveat being that its implied is low in the 52 week range, with the monster volatility pop we had in 2020 still holding sway over where current levels are relative to where they've been.
All that having been said, I'm in the mode of generating "cash flow" regardless of the volatility environment, and so will likely continue to programmatically sell my weekly, 45 days 'til expiry short put in the broad market exchange-traded fund having the highest implied volatility, which here is IWM, along with adjusting any rungs of my longer-dated SPY short put ladder to window dress, take profit, or add units to generate credit and keep that theta pile on and burning. I'd naturally prefer higher volatility to muck about in, but can't have everything.
Rolling (IRA): EWZ April 16th 29 Short Put to June 18th 28... for a .57/contract credit.
Notes: With the April 16th 29 only having .14 of extrinsic left in it, rolling out to the June 18th 28 strike for a realized gain of .43 ($43)/contract with 30-day at 43.9% and expiry-specific at 42.2%. I would've rolled out to May, but have 29's in that expiry. I get a credit, realize a gain, and reduce buying power effect all in one fell swoop.
Opening (IRA): EWZ May 21st 29 Short Put... for a .57/contract credit.
Notes: Just banging through the underlyings at the top of my high IV list. EWZ's 30-day is at 54.07%. ROC at max 2.00% as a function of notional risk.
Closing (IRA): EWZ March 31st 30 Short Put... for an .08/contract debit.
Notes: In for .60/contract (See Post Below); out for .08 with 8 days to go. .52 ($52)/contract profit.
Brazil long term portfolio addition after trend line breakoutsl none
tp none
strategy : buy and hold
EWZ Short PutEWZ is trading near its rising trendline support. Assuming that it could break below it, going with a neutral to bullish strat like a short put or a put credit spread would work to your favor even if the ETF breaks below, or trades flat.
Trade Idea:
Short Put: 28 Strike expiring 4/16 for $0.72 Credit. 72.5% Prob. OTM. and only $285 BP used for a max 25% ROC.
EWZ monthly - up trend is very strongIt has multiple breakouts. RSI, MACD, and long term moving averages are all favorable. I speculate it will revisit all time high in a year or two.
Buy dip and accumulate.
OPENING (IRA): EWZ MARCH 19TH 30 SHORT PUT... for a .69/contract credit.
Notes: Already have some February on, so going out to March here with 30-day at 41.7% and expiry-specific at 41.8%. 2.35% ROC at max. Will manage on approaching worthless and/or take assignment, sell call against.
EWZ Fairly basic chart, it looks like a pennant forming on the daily, expecting a move either which way
Unpredictable Brazil in a critical area - 08/03/2021Although moving averages aren't looking good, EWZ is in a big support zone (white area). In this Elliott waves analysis EWZ hit the 0.382 (30.78) fibonacci retraction for wave 4 and if this is the end of it, wave 5 could hit 0.618 (42.01) or 1 (49.15) of fib extentions. The ex-president Lula news made the market drop today, but Lula isn't worse than current president Bolsonaro. I'm neutral but I expect a further drop moved by fear and uncertainty before go up.
Opening (IRA): EWZ April 16th 29 Short Put... for a .57/contract credit.
Notes: Still have some March on, but adding some in April at the 16 delta strike with 30-day at 49.9% and expiry-specific at 45.7%. 2.00% ROC at max as a function of notional risk.
OPENING (IRA): EWZ FEBRUARY 19TH 31 SHORT PUT... for a .72/contract credit.
Notes: Continuing to establish some new positions in 2021. January has gone a little bit short duration (38 days), so starting out in February. Will add on in weakness and/or if implied stays up there (30-day is currently 38.0%; expiry-specific at 40.3%). ROC: 2.38% at max; 11.75% annualized at max.
OPENING: EWZ MARCH 31ST 30 SHORT PUT... for a .60/contract credit.
Notes: 30-day at 44.7% and expiry-specific at 44.8%. Going with the 58 day weekly 16 delta strike, since I have a March 19th 30 and didn't want to go out to April just yet. 2.04% ROC at max.
$spy Thoughts on $ewzI think as long as this stays above support at 33.25 level we can see 42 then 47
EWZ:Bullish Flag ConfirmedBullish Flag Confirmed
As you can see the price made a clear break out from the bullish flag. This leads to higher volume and we can watch for higher targets.
Targets:
$40.14
$41.92
Thank you and Good Luck!
EWZ: Difficult to time shorts, stay long till 11thTill 11th it will be a difficult asset to sell short due to the timing intervals present.
I have a shorter timing pivot low at Dec 3rd (relative to the pivot 26th), but that is of minor importance. Keeping longs till 11th is preferred strategy and adding on eventual dip the 3rd if it occurs. At the 12th its time to unwind longs till Xmas.
EWZ - Bullish Stock Market goes globalAs the vaccine news comes out very often lately, US stock market have rallied to new all time highs. With the backdrop of weakening dollar and soaring precious metals prices, Brazil will benefit since it has huge dollar denominated debt.
EWZ has corrected 9 months. On 12/1/2020, price broke out of pivot $33.4. The space up to $43.3 have very little trading volume, meaning there is very little resistant. A good trading setup will be buying at <$35, SL $32.5(-7%), Price Target $43.3 (+24%)
OPENING (IRA): EWZ OCTOBER/NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 24/25/26 SHORT PUT... ladder for a total of a 2.34 credit.
Notes: The highest 30-day on the exchange-traded fund board. Will run to approaching worthless/if assigned -- cover. Current yield of 3.38%.
TARI CONDORHi guys,
this iron condor is with 3 weeks expire and 4% strike.
So the short legs are 28.5 and 31.
Probability of success is 56%, so our Rew/risk is 100-56/56= 0.78
With 1$ spread iollect 0.52 credit
Max profit 52
Max loss 48
Rew/risk for this operation is 52/48=1.08, 40% more than 0.78
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
EWZ Downward Channel BreakoutEWZ just broke out of a downward channel at ~$30 on Friday. $EWZ is an ETF of the Brazilian market with stocks like VALE SID NTCO GOL AZUL ITUB BBD in the index. EWZ has previously moved with the domestic "value" trade.
EWZ broke out of a downward channel after forming a double bottom.
First Target $32, Second Target $33, then looking for relative highs above $33.75
GOL Chart
BTO $EWZ 9/4 $31c avg $.50, 9/18 $34 avg $.16
BTO $GOL 9/18 $8c avg $.25
EWZ daily chart - looks promisingStill not quite there as the price is approaching the resistance line and MACD is still negative. But RSI went above 50. If breaking out, next resistance is around $34 price level.
