TARI CONDORHi guys,
this iron condor is with 3 weeks expire and 4% strike.
So the short legs are 28.5 and 31.
Probability of success is 56%, so our Rew/risk is 100-56/56= 0.78
With 1$ spread iollect 0.52 credit
Max profit 52
Max loss 48
Rew/risk for this operation is 52/48=1.08, 40% more than 0.78
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
EWZ trade ideas
EWZ Downward Channel BreakoutEWZ just broke out of a downward channel at ~$30 on Friday. $EWZ is an ETF of the Brazilian market with stocks like VALE SID NTCO GOL AZUL ITUB BBD in the index. EWZ has previously moved with the domestic "value" trade.
EWZ broke out of a downward channel after forming a double bottom.
First Target $32, Second Target $33, then looking for relative highs above $33.75
GOL Chart
BTO $EWZ 9/4 $31c avg $.50, 9/18 $34 avg $.16
BTO $GOL 9/18 $8c avg $.25
OPENING (IRA): EWZ AUGUST 21ST/SEPTEMBER 18TH 23/24 SHORT PUT... for a total of 1.73 credit, with the 24 paying .80 and the 23, .93.
Notes: One of the dividend yielders on my shopping list (yield currently at 3.58%). I've been going three rung with these, but there is currently no October to take advantage of.
Brazilian ETF: Descending Triangle for Latin American NationGlobal stocks had a nice bounce in early June, outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin as the “reopening” trade took hold and the Federal Reserve kept the spigots of easy money flowing.
The MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rode that wave higher at the time but has fallen flat more recently. Weakening of energy prices and a spreading coronavirus outbreak in the Latin American nation has also made matters worse.
This has produced a descending triangle for the ETF, with a series of lower highs since June 8. Downside support is around $28.50.
This creates the potential for bearish continuation if the lower price level is broken. Timing is unclear, and there could be some tests above $29.50 to the falling trendline.
However, the overall setup could be interesting because EWZ has potential downside toward the low $20s if the current support level breaks.
OPENING: EWZ JANUARY/JUNE 15/26 CALL DIAGONAL... for an 8.40/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Loss: $840/contract
Max Profit: $260/contract
Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 76.4%
Break Even: 23.40 vs. 23.30 spot
Notes: A neutral to bullish assumption, IRA-friendly play in the weakened EWZ. I naturally could have gone short put (the June 19th 19 shortie is paying .63), but wanted the opportunity to make something decent if it totally rips away. In a cash secured environment, you'll get some buying power relief over going with the naked.
From a delta standpoint, the back month is at the 89 delta; the front month at the 28, with the front paying just a smidge short of the extrinsic in the back month (which is why the break even is slightly above where EWZ is currently trading). The way to look at these is a form a synthetic covered call, with the back month 90 standing in for your stock.
OPENING (IRA): EWZ SEPTEMBER/JUNE 17/19 SHORT PUT LADDER... for a 1.44 credit.
It's not much of a ladder with only two rungs, but there's no July currently (there will be one after May opex, after which I'll consider adding a third rung).
An acquisitional play in high rank/implied (53/66) to potentially grab this divvy yielder (5.15%) at a discount.
EWZ at decision Point!Dear Investor,
After falling about 60% from this year's High, the EWZ has started a correction movement in "W" shape.
If the price goes above $26,50, I believe the share will return to trade between $30 and $35 and it'll close the first GAP opened by the coronavirus crisis.
I started my LONG position in this share since $20,00. But, if you want to get in this trade, I think the better entry level is when the price breaks up the $26,50.
Good investments for all.
Best regards,
Lucas Sampaio
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Olá Investidor,
Depois de cair cerca de 60% da máxima desse ano, o EWZ está fazendo um movimento em formato de W.
Se o preço superar $26,50, acredito que alcançará a faixa de preço de $30 a $35, fechando o primeiro GAP desde a forte queda da crise do cornavirus.
Eu já estou comprado desde os $20, mas se quiser entrar nesse trade, acredito que o melhor ponto de compra é após o rompimento do $26,50.
Bons investimentos a todos!
Abraços.
Lucas Sampaio
Emerging markets at 2008 level EWZ/BrazilEmerging markets are at 2008 levels, as IMF says this is going to be WORSE than 2008. The rest of the world still needs to catch up, SPX is at Dec 2018 level and this virus is way worse than a double rate increase.
Ask yourself, are you better or worse off than Dec 2018?