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FXY trade ideas

FXE and FXY: Carry trade unwind triggers longterm rallyIn my previous FXY chart, I detailed the weekly/monthly time at mode trend signals and with Tim West's help I noticed that the downtrend was expiring during August. After seeing the reaction to this event, I conclude that both FXE and FXY are reversing the longterm downtrend, judging by post pattern behavior after forming a clear bottom. This currently eludes traditional Elliott Wave analysts (save for a select few like our local AndyM who did a great job with his analysis). I recently began studying neowave from Glenn Neely's book, and read his updates on the new chart patterns he discovered in the 90s, and the one that concluded the impulsive tops/bottoms in most major instruments is a diametric corrective structure. A 7 wave pattern, with similar time between swings and an expanding/contracting or contracting/expanding price range during its progression. Time at mode forewarned us of this situation, and it's now confirmed based on the last week and this week's behavior that the trend is done for. I estimate a return to the monthly mode as a safe bet target for these instruments, which would be an impressive rally in the euro and yen, so, I'll be looking for opportunities on the long side on both. Gold is unclear to me yet, but it's possible that the impulse that we recently saw was the beginning of a new uptrend as well, just that it has a complex bottom formation, which I haven't analyzed in this light in the proper depth required yet. (proper Elliott Wave analysis is really time consuming, and not too practical for trading, but I like keeping it as a secondary tool) I guess that you could purchase calls or sell puts to profit from these instruments reversal, or trade the Forex pairs with leverage as well. Good luck, and see you at the top. Cheers, Ivan.
AMEX:FXYLong
by IvanLabrie
FXY: How long can the Yen carry trade last?There's a monthly time at mode expiration in this instrument coming next month. It's possible to see a reaction as carry trades get unwound, but it's not clear at what price yet. The extreme target is not reached, but the time at mode one has been exceeded, and heading for 2x the projected range soon. I think the dollar rally is about to hit its expiration date, regarding the Euro and the Yen at least, but it can last at least one more month. Looking at usdjpy closely, and also monitoring the S&P500, TLT, Dax, Nikkei and gold. These are very interesting times to be a trader! Will update with more insights and potential trade setups as they come. Good luck, Ivan.
AMEX:FXY
by IvanLabrie
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