Gold Miners on Cusp of Outperforming as Bull market beginsGold Miners remain historically attractive relative price of gold. GDX should outperform gold as the bull market continues with next target ratio of .03.
GDX trade ideas
Gdx is a long term winnerForget about the noise, we are in a multiyear gold bull market.
Few people realize how big this gold bull run can be:
- No alternative assets as fixed income is yielding negative rates and central banks can not increase them or everything will fall apart. Just bitcoin could compete with gold but it is a much smaller market.
- All countries have huge amount of debts impossible to repay (US, Europe, China, Japan, Emerging).
- dollar collapsing
- a reform of the monetary and financial system in the coming years.
- new players buying gold (pension funds)
- current gold market cap is 2 trillion vs equity 100 trillion, which is 2%. If investors start including gold in their portfolios, just a 5% would double the price, a 10% would 5x. Gold can go to 4000$ easily. Miners would be more profitable than tech and Gdx achieving 140-150$ in this scenario is even conservative.
- shake out in march confirms this multiyear market and strong hands will want to 5x or 10x their bet in the coming years. Observe this shake out is pretty similar to that of 2009, but just look at how huge volume is this time, meaning bull run will be much bigger.
- 2023-2024 is the timeframe for gdx going to 120-140$. Thats 3x from current levels without leverage.
Expect volatility in the coming months and buy on every pullback. I expect a pullback to 39-40$ level in September, but could go as low as 36$ if dollar gets stronger. Accumulate at those levels.
First Fibonacci retracement testIf this is really the long awaited bully run on gold (and GDX)... today should hold strong.
[Study] Miners UnderperformingToday is quite wild with SLV +4%, GLD +1%, but Gold miners generally down and sucking.
I actually remember the same situation happening just before the COVID crash and it seems I can illustrate it with this chart.
It's hard to believe miners can be so weak with Gold so strong above $2000. They have amazing fundamentals here.
But the tape is what it is. I would be very careful here. I am doing so by favoring long dated calls and limited sizing.
Long gold miners Seasonality will take prices to 45$ by the end of August.
Expect pullback to 41$ by September for the same reason.
US elections, COVID, and year end seasonality will take the price to 52$
GDX MNT: V-shape recovery / 40% upside BUY/HOLD(STOCKS/ETFs)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
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GDX MNT: V-shape recovery / 70% upside BUY/HOLD(STOCKS)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
Gold is currently a strong bull market with more upside mid-term.
Also strong seasonal period, so I expect more gains
in August/September 2020.
Here's the technical overview of gold price, feel
free to recap:
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: GDX monthly chart review and outlook
::: chart looks strong right now
::: gold clearly in bull market now
::: miners benefiting from rise in prices
::: V-shape recovery in pgogress
::: 60% through already however
::: 40% upside remains from here
::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD at market
::: TP +40% gains
::: setup for patient traders only
::: do not expect fast/overnight gains now
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: supply/demand: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9/Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS
::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS
𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵: $GDX Monthly. What a Move! Major breakout! Look to buy dip as sentiment too high 📈
$GLD $GC_F $GDXJ $SI_F $SLV $ES_F $SPX $VIX $NQ_F $QQQ $NDX $SOX $IWM $TLT $TNX $DXY #Gold
GDX and IBB review (IBB at decision point)both bullish, IBB at critical point - please follow, cheers, Rick
Long on Common Sense. I Personally don't believe the price of Gold is linked to inflation or the recession.
However, you might. So let's see if this reasoning holds up to scrutiny.
Let's see if selling at 2k makes sense.
Boomer Logic:
It happened in the past, there was a recession and then the price of Gold spiked to 2k and then it crashed, so it will happen again.
Skeptic:
This brings up a very interesting question, was every previous recession followed by 2k price spike and then a crash.
Looking at the price history of Gold there is no indication of that. 2k is just a random number pegged to dollar valuation that flucatues with time.
So 2k, or any number we peg in our mind to the price of gold in terms of dollars is really insignificant. It would not indicate a reason to sell or even buy. However, you might.
Boomer Logic:
Well how about inflation, those daaaaaaaaaaaaaam feds are printing so much goddaaaaaamn money! and that's why we all need to sell.
Skeptic:
Ook so the government is printing lots of money, so wouldn't selling into inflation erase your investment?
However, let's pretend selling into inflation makes sense.
What is the current inflation rate? The current inflation rate is only 1.6 % at best or maybe 1.7%.
No one is going out and spending and working, everyone is afraid of the Ronoa, so how can there be inflation?
Inflation is only expected to pick up next year. So selling now means you would be buying into inflation, and thus losing money and a buying opportunity for anyone else.
However, you do what makes sense for you. You can sell when you know the economy is heading in the right directions.
You won't need some financial fortune teller telling you when to sell.
You will feel it in the air, when people have more confidence in government and in the strength of the dollar.
You might think that's happening right now, in which case you should sell right away.
However if you don't, then you probably shouldn't, and I suspect we won't be there anytime soon. But you do you ;-)
GDX needs to pullback and resetGDX has been on a good run and is showing signs of topping out. Specifically bearish divergence is clear on MFI (money flow index and we see a clear 5 wave pattern in the context of Elliot Wave analysis with wave 5 almost exactly equal to wave 1 which is a component of wave analysis. For those who want to short you must establish your own stop loss and a reasonable first target is the low 38 regions based on a .618 retracement of the 5th wave and this also correlates to where the volume weighted moving average is. I would also not be surprised to see a corrective ABC pattern play out.
GDXPotentially early next week a pullback under the 40 level. Then I will be looking for another advance higher. The dollar index is showing divergence and may have a bounce early next week putting downward pressure on SPX GLD GDX
Long GDX As illustrated. Because this one is a slow mover, I am going to sell call to increase my profit along with time. (Cover call strategy)
Gold futures fluctuate quite a lot, the timing of sell call is important (not at the same time as buying the stock).
!GDX, !SLV Trade Updates Holding both positions long from the entry given on back in June here on my tradingview.
