GDX: Long opportunity for the patient tradersGDX , AMEX:GLD and GC1! are all correlated
- GDX lost 40% of it's peak value in 3 weeks - and shot thru the 3-year lows
- this represents a "golden" opportunity - pun definitely intended :) - to someone who wants to ride the opportunity and invest in gold - GDX provides a way to do that with small capital
- i would consider watching the GDX ATM Calls for 4 to 6 months out - but only establish the trade once the reversal to the upside is confirmed and we have a good and reliable target count
- this may happen in few weeks depending on when demand returns to gold by large investors - who had to liquidate to support their equity positions
-- this is another trade idea for the "patient fisherman"
(edited - my edits now showing)
GDX trade ideas
Gold mining ETFs are not worth anythingWeekly target of $23, long term target ETF delisted.
Gold mining companies derive their value from the gold they produce. Their value will never increase in a greater percentage vs. actual gold because paper traded gold does not have the same built in overhead costs that companies have.
Owning gold mining stocks, ETFs, baskets, etc. have no relation to the reason for owning physical gold and I don't see how mining companies would be immune to the global sell-off.
Fundamentals improving - Prices falling anyway = OpportunityIn the short run price action/trend is bearish. We have broken bullish reversed it all and broken below key support. Oil fell through the floor which is good news for Gold Miners because it significantly lowers their cost to mine, oil is way cheaper than in 2016 when GDX peaked at $31 an ounce, simultaneously gold is up around $200 an ounce from 2016 highs. Oil falling = lower cost + Gold rising = higher revenue = bigger net income, dividends and good news for miners. With that being said GDX is falling which is great for us because we understand what the central banks are doing and that Gold/Silver are going through the ceiling. Remember in 2008 GDX fell from $56 to $17 then rose from $17 to $67 that was near the end of the 13 year Gold bull market. But now we are only 4 years in to the Gold bull market up as much as 70% since $1000. All problems in 08 are bigger now.
Gold Miners DislocationI have no idea why Gold Miners are being destroyed right now. They should not be highly impacted by Corona Virus. Oil prices are low( low costs for extraction ). Gold prices are high( high profits and dividends ) and on an upward trajectory with central banks printing money. I fully expect gold miners to pop violently once the dust settles in this broad market sell off. Gold Miners are finding themselves as the baby tossed out in the bathwater. Perhaps they are being dragged down by being part of materials sector ETFs? Damn Algos! I wish the SEC would look into Algo trading price manipulation. But hey, it's creating an opportunity for you to get gold miners on the cheap.
GDX - support zone3/1/20. GDX 4 hour charts
I issued a warning on 2/23/20 of Risk v Reward. At the Friday low, GDX was down a bit more than 20% and NUGT was down a bit more than 50%. I FEEL for all those people who jumped in at the last leg and getting burned but that's how it usually out. Identifying Risk vs Reward and Resistance zone vs Support zone is important.
GDX - 3 day chartGDX 3 day chart 2/23/20
GDX is nearing a resistance zone. If GDX stops around 32 - 33 area and pulls back to the support zone then I will likely view GDX has a bull market to look forward to for a long term but if GDX extends to the red line around mid 36 area, then pulls back hard, I would view it bearish for GDX. Until now, it's been a fairly easy ride but it's time to buckle up.