GDX trade ideas
Gold Miner ETF Holds Key ZoneGold miners have been consolidating for the last six months and now the Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF is bouncing at a potentially key level.
GDX peaked around $28 between late October and mid-December. It then broke out and has now pulled back to find support at the old resistance. There's also some confluence with the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages at the same area.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index just made another lower high below its 50-day SMA. This isn't a huge surprise given the Fed's strongly dovish stance -- especially after last week's poor non-farm payrolls report AND this week's tepid inflation numbers.
GDX could also serve as something of a hedge against downside in the broader market. While the S&P 500 isn't showing many clearly bearish signs yet, a lot of good news is potentially priced in.
XAUUSD
Bullish reversal coming soon Gold metal appears to have more downside but minors which have uncharacteristically underperformed Gold are nearing strong support and bottom of trendline and are forming bullish bullish cup and handle.
OPENING: GDX MARCH 20TH 27/32 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.16 credit; delta -3.15/theta 1.60.
Notes: Going small here in the first expiry in which the short straddle pays greater than 10% of the stock price. Will add if necessary to delta balance.
GDX close to break otuXAUUSD led the break @ 1367 and now GDX will follow accordlingly. my estimates are on Q1 2020
GDX – Small Gap Missed Reason for Downtrend?Found a 3 cent gap around $27.87. Easy to miss. We are headed to gap fill, then back up in my opinion.
Trade Entry
I would look to place hopeful orders in the gap fill, and below the gap fill for overshoot.
I am holding 1/31 expiry options. May add to position if we get to the gap fill.
Market at ATH’s with GDX gap fills tells me things are ready to flip anytime into pullback/correction.
Chart Details
All other details other than the gap fill are the same as previous chart.
Bullish pennant failed.
Price retested recent highs.
Current price at $28 has 10% upside to last high around $30.
Daily trend did confirm bearish today.
Multiple gaps to fill above tells me price wants to go higher.
Watching RSI for bounce off support around 43. If we get below 40 RSI, trade is totally off.
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, CRWD Bullish short term, ZM Bullish, BYND Bullish
GDX – Bull Pennant Failure Stop reached but still holding Put Credit Spreads.
Trade Entry
I entered this trade with 1/31 expiry. Although stop was reached, I am happy to either see how this pans out or take the obligation to buy GDX at $27. I can just hold the shares and wait a month.
If you think there will be any kind of unrest in the next year, while Gold comes out of a 10yr nap, then GDX at current price is an excellent hedge.
Chart Details
Bullish pennant failed.
Price retested recent highs.
Current price at $28 has 10% upside to last high around $30.
Daily trend did confirm bearish today.
Multiple gaps to fill above tells me price wants to go higher.
Watching RSI for bounce off support around 43. If we get below 40 RSI, trade is totally off.
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, CRWD Bullish short term, ZM Bullish, BYND Bullish
GDX – Pausing Before Resuming BullishTrading active in GDX. Going to gap fills at $37 possible.
Trade Entry
1/31 expiry, 27/31 Put Credit Spread.
1/31 Expiry. 29/33 Put Credit Spread.
Chart Details
GDX currently in Bull Flag breakout.
Fractal from pole of Bull Flag is almost identical to current price breakout.
Fractal lines up with 0.618 Fib Extension and gap fills. Things confirming in this manner are positive correlation.
I see GDX taking a break on Fed Repo day of $35Billion or more. Same as fractal. By next week we are resuming up IMO.
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, CRWD Bullish short term.
Previous GDX Chart
The Art of Opportunity Cost (Gold Miners)While Gold is inching closer to its prior all time high, it is not that rosy for gold miners and gold mining stock.
After reaching its all time high in 2011, the gold miner ETF is still down roughly 60% from its all time high. And this was the fate for majority of gold mining stock.
Of course if you dig deeper into some of the gold bugs who sell their client to only buy golds, they were investing in gold mining stocks. Of course never tell the story about how much money their lose and the opportunity cost they lost for the past 8 years hanging on to gold mining stocks.
A stark reminder that market is very cyclical in nature, nothing goes up forever, nothing goes down forever.
Nasdaq will eventually crash, commodity will eventually enter into another bull phase.
But without understanding of market cycle and constantly being trapped by SHILLERS who only knows how to sell, not how to make money in the financial market, most people lost out from making big gains from the market.
Yeah, if they are lucky, maybe they able to buy some gold miners on Dec 2015 and made some hefty gains, hopefully they sold and cash out in 2011.
Market is cyclical.
Stop fall in love with any assets.
Play the market cycle.
Play the smart money game, don't be the dumb money.
If you want to make money from Gold and Gold miners, make sure you understand the gold market cycle, and the commodity cycle and understand that if you want to make money, you need to buy low, and sell high.
GDX short as it tests 1h 200maboth scripts point down after 1 month of successful long and short calls.
to learn more about using the scripts head to tradingscripts.best
GDX - Miners Fail to Confirm Gold BreakoutAfter bottoming out last month, GDX broke through its downtrend channel and started the new up leg. During this time, GLD slightly lagged GDX throughout the bottoming process and also lagged breaking through the downtrend channel. Last night's event has now pushed GLD to highs reached at the end of the summer but GDX is still below those highs. This divergence tells me that GLD has gotten ahead of itself as we typically see the miners lead the underlying metal. Looking for GDX to go through a little consolidation here as GLD consolidates some of its nearly $7 move in as many trading days. Still long the metal but waiting for a pullback in the miners. We may not get much with tensions rising overseas, but a pullback to the breakout area of the uptrend channel should be looked at as a place to add to initiate positions.
GDX - Bullish PullbackTRADING ACTIVE
GDX options 1/31 expiry, 27/31 Put Credit Spread.
Adding to position with another spread based on chart.
Chart Details
Bull flag breakout pattern.
Gaussian channel confirms current trend is bullish.
Price in consolidation before further upside IMO.
Multiple gaps to fill.
Market at all time high with any pullback GDX will go higher.
Trend dots confirm Daily and Weekly trends both bullish with room to run.
Entry Options
Today’s Order – 1/31 Expiry. 29/33 Put Credit Spread. $3.00 credit or more. May go down to $2.90. Risk $110. Reward $290-300. POP around 70% for total strategy.
Stop loss at GDX $29.00
Must exit before expiry on 1/31. Hold maybe a week. Exit at 50% profit, gap fills, or your risk tolerance.
For those looking to hold stock instead of options, I would consider this a good entry for 3-6 month horizon (~10%+ return in my estimate).
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
I am transitioning to my new website www.moneypatterns.com and have updated my name previously jbird7839. Same guy - new name. :)
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish
$GDX GOLD MINERS a good bet for 2020Entry level $30 = Target price $33 = Stop loss $29
This morning a lot of folks are going to wake up to the reality that the world is not such a great place, commodities will be the focus of attention today and indeed the weeks to come.
Let the flight to safety begin.
GDX - Bullish EntryI AM WAITING FOR FILL ON THIS ENTRY
Chart Details
Bull Flag with bullish breakout.
RSI bullish breakout
Weekly trend just turned bullish.
Gaps to fill above. Good entry at lower gap fill around $28.70
Entry Options
Waiting for fill - 1/31 Expiration - 27/31 Put Credit Spread. Take $220 Credit. Max loss $180. Breakeven GDX at $28.80
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
I am transitioning to my new website www.moneypatterns.com and will be updating my username here. Same guy - new name. :)
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC.
The 2020 GDX OUTLOOK>>YIELDS|STOCKS|FED Policy& GOLD>>(Part 2/4)Short Analysis on GDX/Gold in 3 bullet points; Series on Commodities and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19'
Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! Here's the simpler version of the chart:
1. Few key takeaways: Despite that the current resistance at ~31 is holding , the breakout in GDX is eminent . The question is of the timing . From part 1/4 analysis on yields(Ref #5) it seems that yields are looking somewhat bullish. Of course, this is based on the assumption that "Not QE" will continue and eventually QE-4 will be announced . Nevertheless, this means that equities will continue to be bullish, even in sectors such as materials (Ref #6). If we get another series of rate cuts, GDX could breakout as early as Q2 of 2020. For further discussion on QE and monetary policy, visit part (1/4) on Treasury yields:
2. Recently there has been somewhat of a small bounce in PMI's . This was expected as the global monetary policy stance of CB's took a dovish turn in 2019, and the easing environment affects the real economy with a lag . Taking this into consideration, $GOLD may continue the horizontal path that it is currently on. This bounce in the macro data may be very dependent on the outcome of the trade negotiations , which hopefully we will find more about in January.
3. Not expecting gold to make new highs in the first half of 2020 . As the election cycle unfolds, there should be more volatility depending on the election circumstances. It's still very early, but it doesn't look good for the Democrats, in which case a breakout in both GDX and GOLD may be postponed . It's all labelled on the chart.
To sum up, based on more accommodating monetary policy, the bottom line in GDX should hold above 27$. The horizontal range (27-31.25) should sustain before we get a breakout triggered by either the election cycle or potential economic shocks . This is a perfect iron condor trade setup . Materials as a sector has been very under-weighted and hasn't performed well, compared to the cyclicals . As the global economic slowdown continues, it seems that there isn't any downside in holding gold as a stock market hedge . Either way, balance sheet expansion favors all assets, especially substitutes for the dollar- gold.
Tried my best to keep it short and simple, this it for GDX and GOLD.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
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References & Disclosure:
1. FED rates Super-cycle 1980's-
2. Dollar/Yuan breakdown, trade progress and tariffs:
3. Previous Gold chart:
4. XAUXAG, Gold aginst Silver ratio:
5. Treasuries and QE:
6. XLB Sector, US materials:
Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
Gold Miners Going Up My portfolio is GDX, GDXJ, Silver, Gold which have averaged a bit over 25% since jan 2019. Gold and Silver will outperform all asset classes through the next 3-5 years they have not outperformed everything in 2019 US tech has went up 49% and bitcoin 100% however this is going to change. Bitcoin is in slow longterm downtrend never going above 14k again, US stocks will get hit with massive bear market recession within 3-5 years. The portfolio has out permed bonds, foreign stocks, and real estate. But 3-5 years form now it will beat out everything.
TRENDS for next 3-5 years
Bonds are bad because of low interest rates and real inflation is 9%
Foreign stocks are undervalued in relation to US Stocks so they may be heading up
US. real estate according to zillow will get hit hard in 2020
Bitcoin headed down to 1k by the end of 2020
US stock bubble will pop 40 - 60% drop
$GDX Possible Head & Shoulders Bullish pattern targeting 32.3 Bullish pattern as much as it Hold 27.13 targeting 1.23 fib and uptrend resistance at 32.3 or maybe up to 34
[Long] Miners waking upIn the wake of today's FOMC, Gold did NOT get slammed down. That's pretty bullish.
GDX has been relatively strong to Gold and its technical picture is shaping up VERY bullishly.
- Break of downtrend line(s)
- Backtest of such lines
- Strong pop off the 50ma
Fundamentally, Gold is extremely bullish. Central banks can't stop won't stop printing.
Gold Miners Setting Up for a Great 2020!My followers and readers know my fascination and excitement about Gold and Silver. Being well versed in economic history, one cannot avoid Gold. Human history is cycles of hard money and soft money, and come 2021, we will be in the 50th year of this soft/fiat money cycle. Interestingly enough, Neil Howe and William Strauss in their book “The Fourth Turning”, predict that there will be a historical cycle which will be ending between the years 2020-2025.
On this blog, and with my work on Gold, I have mentioned how it is a confidence crisis asset. There are 3 reasons why Gold will be going higher in the very near future (can read in link below). Gold rises when people lose confidence in government, banks and the fiat money. You can see a lot of this occurring now. Trump impeachments and passing government spending bills to avoid shutdowns, piling up the debt. The Federal Reserve doing repo which is over the tune of 300 billion a day and Jim Bianco saying this will just increase in size. Central banks racing to the bottom by cutting interest rates to devalue their currencies. The macroenvironment is there for Gold to shine.
Just a reminder that Gold and the US Dollar can move up together due to being safe havens. I have outlined why I expect the US Dollar to move higher, and how this will cause the problems in the world to exacerbate. Also, remember that Gold priced against other major currencies (the Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, the Yen, the Yuan, and the Euro is very close) has already broken out into all time new highs in 2019. This is a sign regarding where these fiat currencies will be going.
With central banks likely to continue their easing and stimulus, calling it something else other than QE to avoid a confidence crisis, real rates (nominal rates and inflation) will be negative yielding. Another reason to hold Gold. However Gold does well in both inflationary and deflationary environments, and really boils down to it being a confidence crisis asset.
Billionaire Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones have recently spoken about Gold and how one should own it. Dalio’s words on Gold and his “paradigm shift” environment may very well have lead to large institutions and hedge funds to increase their positions in Gold. These larger funds will be playing Gold in 3 ways: buying physical bullion, buying the GLD ETF, and buying positions in Gold royalty and streaming companies, which is one of the best business models invented.
Let’s get to the chart of note, and perhaps the chart of 2020.
The fundamental reasons for Gold are there as described above. The chart of Gold also has given us a nice signal and we are awaiting for a higher low for Gold, which could occur as early as January if the Fed does cut rates again. Currently, the market believes there will be no rate cuts until Fall 2020, but this can be tested and would impact Gold once more cuts become priced in.
GLD is the ETF for the Gold Miners. Our market structure analysis shows us a very exciting market. On the weekly chart, Gold has had a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, and then we began to base and consolidate. This consolidation has occurred for 7 years and the resistance level has been tested 4 times in these 7 years. This is a very important level to watch.
As you learn in my course, all markets only move in 3 ways, and we are very likely to be breaking out into an uptrend to validate this claim. From the break I expect higher lows and higher highs. For those dubious about this pattern, take a look at the Gold weekly chart which had this same pattern. We are still awaiting the first swing on the weekly after the break and run up to a new flip zone level:
Forecasting a great 2020 for the precious metals, and I think it is worth considering positioning yourself for this now.
GDX - Chugging along!GDX price action is very constructive. The impulse leg that marked the beginning of the correction appears to have concluded and it looks like we are beginning to make a series of higher highs and higher lows negating the downtrend channel or flag pattern. I like gold and silver to rise fairly significantly in 2020. RSI and MACD trending upward. Fib levels acting as support. Need the rest of the market to sell off to send this up with conviction. Traders waiting until 2020 to book profits and push of taxes until 2021. Don't miss out on this next run-in the metals space.
GDX - Update - Current PatternI AM NOT ACTIVE IN THIS POSITION. WAITING ON ENTRY.
GDX failed to breakout yesterday. Most likely tied to continued Fed Repo liquidity keeping SPY artificially inflated (see SPX chart link below for news).
Current Daily pattern shown in last chart was extended. Weekly view shown on this chart best shows pattern.
Still in a bull flag formation. Pattern ends around end of February.
RSI trend breakout failure shows trend is going down.
Next Weekly and Daily trends and both bullish flip. Once this occurs we are in good position with both Daily and Weekly to confirm bullish entry.
I will watch the pattern and update if anything occurs by pattern end.
If anyone would like an update, let me know via chat.
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC
