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GDX trade ideas

All I Want for Christmas is a Fed Pivot...Markets are pricing in a recession by 2023 year end. Many believe the fed has overtightened and financial conditions will kill growth. Less spending, lowering earnings and less jobs. In today's market environment an environment a recession is actually bullish for equity markets. A recession would bring down aggregate demand and inflation. This would allow the fed to revert the economy easy monetary policy and markets will price in interest rate cuts. In this scenario, we would see an increase in growth stocks, Bonds, Gold, EURO, Semis...etc. On the contrary, there still remains the upside risk of inflation being more persistent than expected due to a more resilient US economy. economic growth in Q4 is ~ +3.5% and consumers are still strong. The savings rate is at an all time low signifying that stimulus is still in consumer's wallets. So are you expecting a recession or will we stay with tightened conditions. The above chart shows where price will gravitate towards under the two scenarios. 1. The first chart shows the US10Y with XLE(Energy) overlaid. A recession would lead to lower growth prospects decreasing both XLE and US10Y. On the other hand, a high inflation environment would mean that energy prices would rise due to more steady demand and yields would price in the accompanied economic growth. 2. Next we will take a look at the Dollar. A recession would be very bearish for the dollar due, to US treasury not paying out as much for those holding dollars. This would allow the EURO to increase. 3. Gold does well whenever real interest rates falls. Like when there is a recession.... If higher inflation is here to stay, real interest will increase as, the fed attempts to slow economic growth further. We have entered an environment riddled with moderate inflation. The last 10 years, Tech boomed. In the next 10 years, commodities will. I see the US economy's increased resiliency and higher than expected growth to be the reason rates stay high leading the fed to tighten more. I am looking for 4.5% - 6% on the US10Y. But, everyone is pricing in a recession by Q4 2023. Leading to the decline in US10Y (long bonds) and the dollar. A lower dollar increases prices of commodities and lower rates make for easier economic conditions. The exact opposite things we need to bring down inflation. The fed pivot narrative is stimulating the economy, leading to more inflation. So, maybe the US10Y goes down a bit before going to 6%???? or it goes up a bit before going to 3%???? This a very confusing market so, I urge you to tread carefully and only invest in what you understand. I can't see the future, I observe the clues the market gives me, manage risk and hope for the best..... Saving rate: Dear Santa..... All I want for Christmas is a Fed Pivot... Please?
AMEX:GDX
by arama-nuggetrouble
15
Elliott Wave View: Gold Miners (GDX) Starts a New Bullish CycleShort term Elliott Wave View in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests it has started a new bullish cycle from 10.13.2022 low. The rally from there is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 25.4 and dips in wave 2 ended at 22.58. The ETF extends higher again in wave 3 towards 28.49 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. Internal of wave 3 unfolded as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 27.02 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 26.05. ETF extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 28.48, and dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 27.88 as a triangle. The last leg higher wave ((v)) ended at 28.83 which completed wave 3. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 26.76 with subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 27.57 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 28.09. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 26.76 which completed wave 4. GDX has rallied higher again in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 28.40 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 28. Expect the ETF to extend a few more highs before ending wave 5 of (1). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave (2) to correct cycle from 10.13.2022 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Entry for next leg up in $GDXMy dowsing keeps giving me that there's a long entry in GDX, and that this is a multi-day swing low. I think it's today. There's a nice reversal candle on the day. I forgot that I calculated a target yesterday, so did it again today, but I'm happy to see they are relatively close to each other, $29.83-30.40 And I asked for a date twice as well and got the 25th, which I though was this week. But, I forgot I asked already for a date (yesterday), so asked for the number of days to a reversal on GDX and it gave me 34. That calculates to none other than Christmas Day, 12/25! I actually hate getting dates on closed days, but it's something to be aware of since I got the 25th twice using 2 different methods. I ask what direction we run up into 12/25 and get "higher".
AMEX:GDXLong
by JenRz
idea- Relief Rally It looks like an incoming relief rally for GDX, MACD divergence, if this week close above the 11-week EMA in orange we can see the rally at least to around 27.50 or even 28.50(10% to 14% upside) good opportunity in this chart. I look to see the price close above the 11 Week EMA, Bottom indicator crossing above the zero line MACD already with a buy signal. The histogram above Zero Line, if I see the EFI crossing above the zero line is a confirmation of the relief rally. Disclaimer: This is only my view of the instrument, please carry out your due diligence, this is not advice to buy or sell anything.
AMEX:GDXLong
by f3rnandomoreira
GDX - Going Down Xtrenuously (pun intended)The gold miners ETF, GDX, just points to a very very rough time. With the interest rates escalating rapidly, the USD rising swiftly, the equity markets weakening, and gold prices crumbling... it is a perfect storm for GDX thrashing. The weekly chart had a tombstone doji the previous week as it failed the Hull EHMA, and the past week confirmed the trend reversal down. The weekly technical indicators are weak and bearish looking so not much to go on here. The daily chart shows a recent breakdown from a failed 55EMA test. and on Friday, ended with a bearish marubozu, closing near the weekly low. The technical indicators are significantly suggestive... the MACD had actually wasted a long bullish divergence and failed to mount a very decent rally. This failure would have a doubling opposing effect, and the daily MACD has actually crossed down into the bear territory. Taken together, projections set a downside target of 17, about the end of November 2022. A very tough time for GDX (unless you are short)
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
GDX: Rise and Shine! ☀️GDX seems to have woken up and is showing its high spirits by climbing upwards. We now consider wave ii in magenta to be finished, and thus expect the ETF to continue its way above the resistance at $28.83. Once there, GDX should gain even more upwards momentum to rise above the next mark at $40.13 as well. We should still keep in mind our alternative scenario, though, as there remains a 40% chance that GDX could lose its steam and drop below the support at $16.18. in that case, we anticipate further descent.
AMEX:GDX
by MarketIntel
1
GDX gold miner ETF setting up LONGAMEX:GDX Based on the 4H chart as well as the price action of spot gold using an EMA ribbon cross-over as well as the volume profile, I have set up a long trade with two upside targets of about 10 and 20 % upside respectively with a stop loss of about 4% which would be adjusted as soon as the price rises above $ 27 to move the stop loss to the entry price making for a breakeven free trade after that. Overall, spot gold is sitting on support with a bullish RSI divergent pattern. I also see GDX as a candidate for the intermediate term call options out of the money about 15% above the current price being between the two targets.
AMEX:GDXLong
by AwesomeAvani
Elliott Wave View: Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Has Reached Inflection Short Term Elliott Wave View in GDX suggests rally to 26.40 ended wave (2). Wave (3) lower is in progress to complete a cycle from August 25th, 2022 high. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 25.23 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 25.44. ETF extended higher in wave ((c)) of W towards 26.22. Connector wave X completed as a zigzag correction at 25.30. GDX then resumed the rally in wave ((a)) ended at 25.98 and pullback in wave ((b)) finished at 25.53. Final leg higher wave ((c)) ended at 26.40 which ended wave Y of (2) GDX turned lower in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 25.75 and bounce in wave 2 ended at 26.18. The ETF extended lower in wave 3 towards 22.96. Internal subdivision in wave 3 unfolded as an impulse. Wave ((i)) ended at 24.40 and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 25.14. The instrument extended lower in wave ((iii)) of 3 towards 23.80. Then a shallow rally completed wave ((iv)) at 24.24 and last leg lower ended at22.96 completing wave ((v)) of 3. Near term, we are developing a corrective wave 4 and afterwards, it should continue lower to end wave 5 of ((3)). As far as pivot at 26.40 high stays intact, expect any rally to fail for further downside.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
GDX vs. BTC still holding uptrendI first published this chart in December last year with the view of owning gold & gold miners over Bitcoin. Whether you took a spread on Gold spot or gold miners(GDX) vs. BTCUSD, either one would have doubled your money this year. It has been a great trade indeed but interesting to note how strong this uptrend has been since the end of last year and there looks like no stopping this gravy train at the moment. In the absence of a technical break, I am still happy to own gold vs. bitcoin for now.
AMEX:GDXLong
by MarcoOlevano
1
GDX suffering a low periodGDX, the gold miners ETF which once had a lot of potential is now in the doldrums. Having hit 41 in April 2022, it had almost halved within 4 months. Recently, an attempt to consolidate and rebound is seeing a lot of challenges. First, the Gold prices are in a bear trend, secondly, rising interest rates hurt the miners, third, the weak equities market also affect the gold miners. The GDX weekly chart has in the past couple of weeks attempted a rebound, but the past week pretty much wiped all gains out. This move mellowed the technical indicators and it is less than ideal to be a tad bullish at all. The daily chart obviously has technically bearish indicators crossing down with momentum. Overall, very likely to take out the last low. Nothing much except the obvious... bearish
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
11
GDX: GDX-citing 🍿We hope you’ve all got your popcorn ready because it’s getting more and more exciting here! GDX has reacted to the upper edge of the magenta-colored zone between $19.52 and $27.49 and has slowed down its upwards movement. Although the ETF could directly continue the ascent, we still give it some more room and time to finish wave in magenta a bit deeper in the magenta-colored zone. As soon as wave in magenta is completed, though, GDX should take off, rise above the resistance at $28.83 and head for the next one at $40.13. However, there is a 30% chance that GDX could break through the bottom of the magenta-colored zone and drop below the support at $16.18, which would then activate further descent.
AMEX:GDX
by MarketIntel