NEVER GO FULL..... GOLD EUPHORIAGOLD EUPHORIA HAS GONE FULL CYCLE — AND THAT MAKES ME NERVOUS
There was a time not too long ago when uttering the word gold in financial circles would elicit smirks, eye-rolls, or worse — instant dismissal. Between 2014 and 2019, the mere suggestion of accumulating physical bullion or positioning in junior miners like GDXJ was treated as a form of ideological extremism. You were either a doomsday prepper, a Ron Paul groupie, or a relic yourself — a “pet rock” clinger, waiting for a catastrophe that the Fed’s digital printing press would forever keep at bay.
But fast-forward to mid-2025, and gold isn’t just back — it’s fashionable. That should terrify you.
Suddenly, everyone sees it. Systemic fragility. Fiscal nihilism. The slow, nauseating decay of the dollar’s purchasing power. Even the “trust-the-Fed” technocrats and QE-forever interventionists are parroting the same doomsday lingo they spent a decade mocking. Now, they’re loading up on precious metals, layering macro doom threads on Twitter, and waxing poetic about Bretton Woods III. The same institutions that branded you a lunatic for shorting the Treasury complex in 2020 are now publishing breathless gold forecasts and endorsing BRICS currency chatter like it’s gospel.
When the gold trade starts getting consensus nods from CNBC anchors and Brookings fellows, something has changed. And not for the better.
Take a look at the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) — the quintessential proxy for speculative precious metals froth. From its late-2024 bottom near $40, it rocketed to over $72 by June 2025 — a near-80% vertical melt-up in seven months. The volume on that ascent was substantial, no doubt, but what’s come since is even more telling. We’ve now got three weeks of topping candles, declining volume, and a weekly close this Friday at $66.19, down nearly 4% on the week. Support at $65 is teetering, and the next real floor sits closer to $60 — the prior breakout zone.
Technically, it smells like distribution. Psychologically, it reeks of complacency.
Call it the Minsky moment of the gold trade. Stability breeds instability. And nothing screams instability like a former pariah asset becoming a near-universal safe haven consensus play, right as speculative capital piles in at nosebleed valuations.
This isn’t a call on gold’s long-term validity — far from it. The monetary rot is real. The fiat debasement is mathematically terminal. And the entire global sovereign debt pile is one rate shock away from implosion. But markets don’t move in straight lines. Especially not when everyone is suddenly on the same side of the boat, citing the same macro talking points they ridiculed five years ago.
I’ve been here before. I remember accumulating metal when it was hated — not merely unloved, but reviled. Back when CPI read 0.2% and the Fed pretended it could tighten. Back when nobody knew what an SDR was and gold bugs were caricatured as paranoid survivalists waiting for a return to the gold standard. That was value. That was accumulation.
What we have now is a FOMO-soaked crescendo, where even the Keynesians are starting to sound like Austrian-school newsletter writers.
So yes, I’ve sold into this rally — at least the speculative tranche. I’ve taken gains in miners, trimmed the GDXJ fat, and built a list of bear-side entries for what I think is the inevitable correction. Because when the least-likely characters start echoing your thesis word-for-word, it’s time to reassess your positioning.
This doesn’t mean the dollar survives. It doesn’t mean the Fed has regained credibility. It simply means markets are reflexive — they overshoot in both directions. And when the gold trade becomes saturated with latecomers who believe the dollar dies tomorrow and the DXY is going to 40 in a straight line, the odds of a savage retracement increase tenfold.
I remain a long-term gold bull. But right now? The fever is high. The crowd is euphoric. And in markets, that’s when gravity tends to do its finest work.
Chart Notes:
Weekly candle closed at $66.19, down -3.85%.
Resistance: $72.00.
Immediate support: $65.00.
Stronger support zone: $60–61.
Weekly volume: 16.86M, with signs of declining momentum.
