NEVER GO FULL..... GOLD EUPHORIAGOLD EUPHORIA HAS GONE FULL CYCLE — AND THAT MAKES ME NERVOUS
There was a time not too long ago when uttering the word gold in financial circles would elicit smirks, eye-rolls, or worse — instant dismissal. Between 2014 and 2019, the mere suggestion of accumulating physical bullion or positioning in junior miners like GDXJ was treated as a form of ideological extremism. You were either a doomsday prepper, a Ron Paul groupie, or a relic yourself — a “pet rock” clinger, waiting for a catastrophe that the Fed’s digital printing press would forever keep at bay.
But fast-forward to mid-2025, and gold isn’t just back — it’s fashionable. That should terrify you.
Suddenly, everyone sees it. Systemic fragility. Fiscal nihilism. The slow, nauseating decay of the dollar’s purchasing power. Even the “trust-the-Fed” technocrats and QE-forever interventionists are parroting the same doomsday lingo they spent a decade mocking. Now, they’re loading up on precious metals, layering macro doom threads on Twitter, and waxing poetic about Bretton Woods III. The same institutions that branded you a lunatic for shorting the Treasury complex in 2020 are now publishing breathless gold forecasts and endorsing BRICS currency chatter like it’s gospel.
When the gold trade starts getting consensus nods from CNBC anchors and Brookings fellows, something has changed. And not for the better.
Take a look at the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) — the quintessential proxy for speculative precious metals froth. From its late-2024 bottom near $40, it rocketed to over $72 by June 2025 — a near-80% vertical melt-up in seven months. The volume on that ascent was substantial, no doubt, but what’s come since is even more telling. We’ve now got three weeks of topping candles, declining volume, and a weekly close this Friday at $66.19, down nearly 4% on the week. Support at $65 is teetering, and the next real floor sits closer to $60 — the prior breakout zone.
Technically, it smells like distribution. Psychologically, it reeks of complacency.
Call it the Minsky moment of the gold trade. Stability breeds instability. And nothing screams instability like a former pariah asset becoming a near-universal safe haven consensus play, right as speculative capital piles in at nosebleed valuations.
This isn’t a call on gold’s long-term validity — far from it. The monetary rot is real. The fiat debasement is mathematically terminal. And the entire global sovereign debt pile is one rate shock away from implosion. But markets don’t move in straight lines. Especially not when everyone is suddenly on the same side of the boat, citing the same macro talking points they ridiculed five years ago.
I’ve been here before. I remember accumulating metal when it was hated — not merely unloved, but reviled. Back when CPI read 0.2% and the Fed pretended it could tighten. Back when nobody knew what an SDR was and gold bugs were caricatured as paranoid survivalists waiting for a return to the gold standard. That was value. That was accumulation.
What we have now is a FOMO-soaked crescendo, where even the Keynesians are starting to sound like Austrian-school newsletter writers.
So yes, I’ve sold into this rally — at least the speculative tranche. I’ve taken gains in miners, trimmed the GDXJ fat, and built a list of bear-side entries for what I think is the inevitable correction. Because when the least-likely characters start echoing your thesis word-for-word, it’s time to reassess your positioning.
This doesn’t mean the dollar survives. It doesn’t mean the Fed has regained credibility. It simply means markets are reflexive — they overshoot in both directions. And when the gold trade becomes saturated with latecomers who believe the dollar dies tomorrow and the DXY is going to 40 in a straight line, the odds of a savage retracement increase tenfold.
I remain a long-term gold bull. But right now? The fever is high. The crowd is euphoric. And in markets, that’s when gravity tends to do its finest work.
Chart Notes:
Weekly candle closed at $66.19, down -3.85%.
Resistance: $72.00.
Immediate support: $65.00.
Stronger support zone: $60–61.
Weekly volume: 16.86M, with signs of declining momentum.
GDXJ trade ideas
GDXJ short to $44Using my dowsing readings on GDXJ as confirmation was helpful for the long GLD idea, so why not use it for the move down idea? Only this time, I'll post what I get :)
As I mentioned, I'm a dowser & all my ideas and levels come from that. There's not much to this idea other than it shouldn't go much above 54. I do have a bit higher on GLD, and then a significant correction, which on GDXJ gives me a target of $44.
Levels hit well before, so hopefully, we can get lucky again.
$GDXJ is finally breaking out as gold taps $2900/ozAMEX:GDXJ and AMEX:GDX are both generally positively correlated with gold price movements in the medium term, and this correlation has ticked back up meaning AMEX:GDX and AMEX:GDXJ should be playing catch up now that gold is crossing $2900/oz due to global central banks and institutions accumulating to hedge erratic POTUS while stocks already at hefty valuations (except junior gold miners).
Projecting GDXJ Bull Wave to 56.18 TargetThe Miner's recent zig zag wave structure has provided a few hints at where the current price might top out or at least take a rest. Looking back at each wave on the chart with a FIB scale reveals a tendency for Bull impulse waves to have a fairly reliable middle area around 50% where price consolidates for a short while before advancing to a topping level. IF our current wave has the same structure then the consolidation area that price just left behind projects a wave completion around $56/57 in the week ahead. Of course it is a running Bull so it could blow through those levels and head to the 1.618 extension - IMO please not trade advice just an observation
Junior Miners will take some time off soon I see a repeat of March 2020 happening but with birdflu (check out my silver miners AMEX:SILJ thread where the fractal looks better).
Within 5 months, miners had a 42% gain, but within that time period there were 2 huge drops and 3 huge gains:
1. $46-$20 (56% loss) in 2 weeks (June-July)
2. $20-$40 (100% gain) in 4 weeks (July-August)
3. $40-$50 (25% gain) in 4 weeks (August-September)
4. $50-$42 (15% loss) in 4 weeks (September-October)
5. $42-$65 (55% gain) in 6 weeks (October-Mid November)
We'll want to target events 1, 2 and 5. OTM puts and calls on AMEX:NUGT , AMEX:JNUG and AMEX:AGQ will be the way to go on this assuming some exogenous event doesn't take down our markets (hack, EMP etc.), and IV is affordable. 1 will be moderately expensive because of hitting the top (unless it grinds slowly sideways dragging IV down with it). 2 could be pretty expensive. 5 should be highly affordable after a slow walk up and down for 2 months.
I will also be keeping a close eye on several junior miners like NYSE:EXK and one pharmaceutical company NASDAQ:GILD (check those threads also)
Slow move down the roadChoppy move in Gold and also is MIners.
So I expect an intermidiate stop at 37$-38$ for GDXY sometime in the first two weeks of July. At that time, gold should be at 2200 (futures, cash is about 20$ more).
So i will close my short position at that level.
Enter a long I still think is risky as weeky and monthy trends are bearish. So each one should trust in their only analysis and risk to do so.
I will probably enter a long position for some days, normally 6 to 8 trading days is the more It colud last the rally., but is not worth if you no are levaraged somehow.
After that i will probably enter a HUGE SHORT position again FROM 40$ or so (as I expect) to ...could be around 33$...still to be seen...in end August or September, with gold around 2000$.
Junior Miners taking time off gonna plummet (10x insurance play)It's gonna go down pretty badly. Follow my previous threads on gold, silver and miners. I'll go forward and update from this thread going forward.
September 20 puts for GDXJ are going for around .15 for 20, 25, and 30, the spread is pretty high between the bid and ask, but if you can scoop anything .20 and lower, then we're talking a 15x play for what I see.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, I'M JUST A FOOL...
3 minutes ago
Comment:
These will go up exponentially even by the red line support, consider taking half off there and riding the rest down with a trailing stop of your own choice...
Junior Gold Miners Poised for Rapid ExpansionHello dear reader,
This is a simple post, from a simple person. Note VanEcks Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) vs VanEcks Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Relative to the mids and majors, junior company investment is at an all-time low and has been for two years. Junior gold miners in general have been in a funding rut since 2016. Now, with the strong and long-awaited rise in gold and silver, is a prime opportunity to keep aware of ETF investments flowing into juniors (as well as mids and majors).
Now is the time to find those strong gold juniors with strong management, fertile grounds, and healthy exploration budgets. The easiest thing to do is see who is getting investments from companies and major investors and follow the trail.
For further consideration, plot GDXJ or GDX against GOLD and SILVER. Assuming metal prices hold, we are facing a generational heyday in the precious metals sector.
Cheers.
GDXJ new weekly lowsDollar UP.
gold at a very TOP
And miner doing very bad, after all, cant be a bullish continuation.
That means for me a RESET, to a weekly low or even a MONTHLY bottom.
If after Fed meeting, gold continues crahing (and it could) if dollar seeks new HIGH, miners would fall more...
I am full short at this moment.
There is a gap at 33 that should be filled.
And under 30 is very probable...afterwards, wait and see
Camina o revienta.Slow move up, very slow, more slow than I would like and desire. But UP, at the end. Some might call it "acumulation" or any fashion word to describe what market does for unkownn reasons, when it moves slowly.
So here are the rhythms of this FOUR year corrective move. And now? walk or Burst (again), fly or Die (once more).
I chose the first.Is my choice. In fact I see the sector reaching all time hights again during 2025.
It would not be a path full of roses. When has it been before?
In a nutshell for this coming year:
- Dollar mainly down.
- Gold mainy UP
- Miner mainly UP-
And in addition to all this:
- General Markets (S&P500) also UP to all tme hights.
- China (Shanghai Index) up, in a explosive manner.
Precious Metals minersThis is something I look at in terms of health (outlook) for PM mining stocks (see GDX and GDXJ etfs)
Mining stocks have been battered in recent times but just when everyone gives up on them is probably a decent contrarian time to start looking for higher prices
the ratio of small miners/big miners looks like it is about to break out a little higher which generally is a positive signal for the sector as a whole (risk on for the sector)
Junior gold miners are breaking out of multi-year triangleJunior gold miners, as shown with the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF, are finally following the gold price action and started its own strong upward trend by breaking the (green) resistance, with the subsequent pullback confirming it as new support and starting to accelerate upwards (“thrust“).
Junior Gold Miners Catching Up To The Gold PriceWhile gold continues to trade at record highs, gold exploration and mining stocks have finally started to appreciate as well, albeit somewhat slower than many have expected. However, the underperformance of gold stocks relative to a rising gold price is a phenomenon which is not uncommon, in particular in the beginning (and also in the final phases) of a bull market.
Long Trade on Gold mining companies - 18RI am very confident if this move down occurs the market will finally bottom and we will see a minimum +250% return on this ETF.
I'm treating this more as an investment than a trade.
If this occurs it could also mean a stock market crash is not too far away - historically it usually occurs within 12 months once Gold finds the final bottom of the bear market.
Miners are BearishWith gold up near 2000 once again and seeing bullish sentiment building it behooves us to watch the technicals and there's nothing bullish about miners. Some are saying inverse head and shoulders but you'd be betting on a major breakout in gold witch seems unlikely with all but WW3 priced in. Major gap on majors and minors below is the target by year end.
GDXJ: Revived 🌅In the current blue wave (c) of the GDXJ, the bulls pulled out their defibrillators and breathed some life back into the market. With a 5.5% gain, the wave extension continued, which should carry on above the next resistance at $43.89 and then enter the magenta Target Zone ($57.36 - $65.95). In this price range, both the top of the blue wave (c) and that of the overarching magenta wave (b) should be manifested. However, our alternative with a probability of 45% also remains valid. In this case, an imminent reversal would take place with the high of the orange wave alt.b.
Opening (IRA): GDXJ November 17th 35 Covered Call... for a 31.42 debit.
Comments: Going covered call (neutral to bullish assumption) on this weakness with a 30 delta short call in the November 17th expiry.
Max Profit: 3.58 ($358)
Break Even: 31.42/share
ROC %-age at Max As a Function of Buying Power Effect: 11.39%
ROC %-age at 50% Max: 5.70%
GDXJ (+ Gold) "Bear Trap" LongGiven USD strength and the sustained pressure of ever-increasing US interest rates, gold has been taking it on the chin. However, we’re getting into buy levels/demand where it may be poised for a near-term recovery. Keep tabs on gold (spot, futures, GLD), but if you see signs of accumulation/trend reversal (use small timeframe charts), consider climbing aboard. FYI, gold futures (GC) have a yet-to-be-filled gap @ 1872.70, so we may drift lower in the immediate-term as the precious metal seeks that level. In the Jr. Miners space, we’re eyeing the 30.57-31.85 demand zone, which formed in November of '22. Protective stops should be placed below the lower bound of the buy zone. Targeting is a bit challenging, but GC futures should be able to rally to ~1910, if not higher. As everything is uncertain in trading, use your judgement. We always take mechanical profits en route to opposing zones, which are used for our target setting, and would highly recommend doing the same given the stress currently being reflected across markets.
Just a thought/idea – take it . This is a very aggressive trade given recent price action - be careful!
JHart @ LionHart Trading
VANECK JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF - LONGI believe Gold is close to bottoming - we may see a short term move down on Gold due to dollar strength, however I believe the cyclical effects of Gold entering into a bull market will overpower the impact of Dollar strength weakening risk on assets.
The entry zone at 35.56 may be broken as it's possible a stronger move down in Gold will happen first. This could send GDXJ down to anywhere between 32 and 26. Probably 30 being the most probable value in which GDXJ will bottom at.
My plan is to buy at 35.56 and in the 32-26 zone, with 30 being the closest value I expect it to reverse from - but that will require further analysis on Gold nearer the time.
Please see my Gold analysis which I will post shortly to understand this perspective.