GDXJ trade ideas
GDXJ long ideaTo me I am finally getting a buy signal on miners. GDXJ has been supported by the 50 sma and is getting a move higher. The upper trend line was crossed, BUT we didn't close above it yet. I do see a cross of the 8sma and 13ema which is a buy signal. I had a buy signal on AXU yesterday. Pretty close to lift off.
GDXJ - Looking to buy at $32Double top daily at 61.8. back inside the symmetrical wedge, bearish macd and rsi (second top printed lower values)
Gap between $32-$33 where I am looking to buy
levels = $36 200DMA, not tested since break out in may 2019 of the wedge base. $33 100WMA
Gold is Nearing a Sharp Rise Upwards in February/MarchHighlights
- GDXJ to 50.00 or higher by March
- Yields to make new record lows in 2020
- DXY to rise slightly in Q1 to early Q2 of 2020 and fall sharply mid to late year
- Gold to hit 1700+ in March; Silver to hit 21.50+ in March
- Gold to reach 1900+ by year-end; Silver to hit 24+ by year-end
- Gold stocks to outperform every sector in the equity market when averaged over 2019-2023 when the time comes
As I have been touting for quite some time, Gold finished its major correction back in November and has increasingly been gaining considerable momentum since early November. Only up until recently has Gold entered the next phase in its run. Since early January we have formed slight upside but mainly consolidation; this will end shortly and the next leg higher will show face.
Gold will run to 1700 or higher by March or sometime in March as I have held consistent on for over a month. With an overbought equity market and concern over the coronavirus, this may cause a sharp rise in Gold, Silver and Platinum that I have been referring to. This may also bring the much needed "rest" for Palladium and bring about a 5% correction depend on earnings and monetary policy in the coming weeks.
Now is the time to buy Gold and Silver.
- zSplit
Why I purchased some GDXJ todayWith the odds of a Fed rate hike down to 12.7%, it's looking likely that the rate environment will stay favorable for gold next Wednesday. We're also seeing a little deceleration in stocks due to the Coronavirus, with China stocks already having taken a big loss, and US travel stocks also suffering. We've now had one Coronavirus case in the US, and there are likely to be reports of more cases in the coming weeks. A significant downturn in US stocks due to Coronavirus panic could be good for gold. Thus GDXJ probably makes a good hedge against positions in the major US stock indexes moving forward.
Buy this Dip - likely Bullish Cup and HandleGold technically looks like it may have more downside; however, miners and silver are looking bullish nearing the trendline for a bullish reversal. Especially with the trade deal signing tomorrow that won’t meet expectations these will likely be bullish.
Nice Bull Flag on GDXJ! With the Greed index at the top and the pattern on this chart, JNUG should be on your watchlist. When this takes off, it will be a very nice move!
money.cnn.com
$GDXJ Junior Miners looking to hold key supportJuniors looking to hold key support. Nice bullish engulfing weekly candle. $GDXJ $GDX #gold #silver $GLD $SLV. A break above that downtrend line would be a solid entry
GDXJ Junior Gold Miners in Wave 4 correctionConsistent with my view on #gold, juniors look like a Wave 4 correction before a 5th wave higher. $GDXJ $GDX $GLD $SLV #silver #platinum #palladium
BULL MINNERS ETF GDXJ CHART PATTERN S ABOUT MINNERS GOLD SHOWING ALSO STRONG BULL MOVEMENT IN GOLD SOON
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, SI1!, GC1!, CL1!EARNINGS:
Nothing is currently popping out on my screener that is highly liquid from an options standpoint and/or has ideal rank/implied metrics of >70% rank/>50% implied.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Pictured here is what is becoming a broken record trade in GDXJ (63/37) -- a 35/43 short strangle in the November cycle paying 1.12 at the mid price (.66 at 50 max). As you can see, the premium's where it's been -- precious metals and oil.
SLV (68/27)
GLD (64/14)
GDXJ (63/37)
GDX (62/32)
TLT (50/14)
USO (37/39)
XOP (34/40)
BROAD MARKET
SPY (28/17)
IWM (25/21)
DIA (21/17)
QQQ (21/21)
There's still a decent amount of time in the November cycle (40 days 'til expiry) to put something on in broad market if you missed the volatility pop last week.
SPY November 15th 279/305 (20 delta), 3.71 credit.
IWM November 15th 139/157 (18 delta), 1.97 credit.
DIA November 15th 251/276 (18 delta call, 19 put), 3.00 credit.
QQQ November 15th 177/198 (20 delta put, 19 call), 2.73 credit.
FUTURES
/SI (68/30)
/GC (64/14)
/6B (56/11)
/ZB (50/10)
/ZF (43/4)
/ZN (42/5)
/ZC (39/27)
/CL (37/40)
As with the exchange-traded funds, the volatility is in precious metals and oil. Although the ranks are high in the treasury complex, I'm not doing anything there due to the low background volatility, although I could see a bearish assumption directional shot in /ZN if we reach back to those 2019 highs.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES
I missed last week's 21.46 high to add bearish assumption, but we finished the week at 17.04, so another >20 VIX isn't out of the question.
GDXJ - Weekly - So MUCH Bullish MA's Crossing Here!!! BULLISH!!!GDXJ - Weekly - So MUCH Bullish MA's Crossing Here!!! BULLISH!!!
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, XOP, /CLEARNINGS:
No earnings announcements this coming week in underlyings with highly liquid options with ideal rank/implied metrics (>70% rank/>50% 30-day implied).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
SLV (86/30)
GDX (80/17)
TLT (63/16
GDX (63/33)
GDXJ (61/36)
XOP (44/41)
Like a broken record for the umpteenth week in a row: precious metals,, with GDXJ offering the best volatility metrics (>50% rank/>35% 30-day implied) .
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (24/19)
SPY (20/15)
QQQ (16/19)
EEM (12/17)
EFA (16/12)
Objectively, broad market premium selling isn't paying greatly here in <90 days 'til expiry duration: IWM November 155 short straddle, 8.84, 5.7% of the current stock price; December 155 short straddle, 11.66, 7.5%; January 155 short straddle, 13.09, 8.4%, with the first expiry paying greater than 10% in March (March 20th 155, 16.47) with the correspondent March 20th nearest the 16 delta short strangle 130/175 paying 3.19. This isn't horrid, but represents a long time to wait for your candy, although a less than 50% max take profit on such a setup might be compelling for some. (e.g., 25% max take profit of .80 ($80) as opposed to waiting for a full 50.
FUTURES:
/SI (86/29)
/GC (80/16)
/UB (63/5)
/ZB (63/11)
/6B (62/26)
/ZS (65/26)
/ZN (49/6)
/ZC (43/23)
/CL (37/42)
Although /CL rank isn't ideal here, keep in mind that we had that mid-September OVX pop, which will skew where the current 30-day lies in relation to the 52-week range. The November 15th 58.5 short straddle is paying 6.67, 11.4% of where WTI is currently trading; the December 16th 58.5, 8.20, 14%, with their corresponding 16 delta short strangles paying 1.44* and 1.77** respectively, both of which beat a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
VIX finished the week at 15.32 ... . Continue to hand sit on short volatility setups, waiting for VIX prints of >20.
* -- The November 15th 51/70.
** -- The December 16th 49/71.5.
Ugly JuniorsJuniors have been disappointing to many.
"How come gold make new highs while miners are not"?
Well, at least the juniors can go back to old highs. Just to test the water, no?
Lets try.
Long the pullbackFor those that have been waiting for a pullback to enter the miners there it is.
SL: breaking the channel to the downside
GDXJ - Bull Put SpreadPrice Action retraced to 38.
Lower BB% and RSI <10 with Significant Volume .
Looking for Reversal to mean higher.
Taking 38/37 Put Credit Spread.
Also picked up 39 Call for Directional Bias higher.
Oct Exp but aiming to Close in profit well before that...
Good Luck - Watch your $$$ RISK
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, VIXEARNINGS
No options highly liquid underlying earnings announcements this coming week.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Ordered by implied volatility rank:
SLV (99/33)
GDX (71/33)
GDXJ (67/37)
XLU (60/14)
GLD (59/15)
Pictured here is a GDXJ Oct 14th 36/44 short strangle, paying 1.23 at the mid with break evens at 34.77/45.23, and delta/theta metrics of 1.46/3.08.
BROAD MARKET
IWM (25/19)
SPY (20/15)
DIA (16/15)
QQQ (15/19)
EFA (8/12)
EEM (2/17)
We're a bit out of cycle for October expiry trades (40 days until expiry), and if you're like me, you loaded up a little heavy in all that volatility in August, so not a bad thing to hand sit here, manage what you put on ... .
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES
VIX closed the week at 15.00 with the /VX term structure returning to its "basic look" (i.e., spot under M1, everything sloping gradually higher as you go out in time). In spite of the fact that we're under the 16 handle, VIX is still amenable to a decent "term structure" trade in the October or November cycles (or both), with the /VX future trading at 17.65 versus 15.00 spot in October and 18.00 versus 15.00 spot in November as of the writing of this post.
October (37 Days Until Expiry) term structure trades:
VIX October 16th 17/19 short call vertical, .65 credit at the mid price, break even at 17.65 versus October /VX contract at 17.65.
VIX October 16th 17/20 short call vertical, .90 credit at the mid price, break even at 17.90 versus October /VX contract at 17.65.
November (72 Days Unit Expiry) term structure trades:
VIX November 20th 17/20 short call vertical, .95 credit at the mid price, break even at 17.95 versus November /VX contract at 18.00.
VIX November 20th 18/21 short call vertical, .80 credit at the mid price, break even of 18.80 versus November /VX contract at 18.00.
For all other, non-inverse derivatives, hand sit on entering short delta setups in the absence of VIX pops to >20.
