GDXJ trade ideas
GDXJ short into ICLI have been bullish on precious metals and have lost a good chunk of money. Despite the extremely bullish COT levels and deep oversold conditions we saw at the last ICL, it just wasn't time for a big rally.
Now, I feel like sentiment is very morose. People have given up on gold.
Now, gold has already burned too much time this IC, and a big rally from here seems unlikely, especially in tax loss season.
Any additional rise in the already weak GDXJ should be short opportunity. We might get it if SPY and stocks takes one more dip low.
Long from 27 support zoneDouble bottom on the daily charts, option chain put to call ratio is 0.33, with GLD put to call at a more conservative but bullish 0.70. Target 1 at 28+ target to at 30+ stop loss at weekly low of 26.32. Gold breaking 1230+ will confirm bullish trend continuation, with a break below 1210 most likely stopping out the position.
GDXJ: Daily, Weekly and Quarterly viewI'm long Jr. miners here, together with positions in oil and oil services, and gold, (and probably silver soon). I think we may get a weekly uptrend confirmation to trigger as a result of the jump towards daily targets that is likely to occur within this week.
The move forecasted by the weekly chart would put $GDXJ back at the quarterly time-frame mode, from where we could consider the possibility of prices surging like my quarterly chart show...very lofty targets indeed. I'm holding a 13% position in this stock as of now.
Best of luck if you take the trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Long GDXJ (Alternative view from previous analysis)One week passed, GDXJ starting to form a bottoming signal (rising volume and bottom wick). With the equity market (SPY) so weak, gold may have the chance to breakout.
If GDXJ breaks above the triangle trend line, that will be a false breakdown. That we should expect a huge rally ~20-30% from current level.
The only risk is yield is about to explode, so if gold is negatively correlated to yield, this is unlikely to happen.
Trade plan: wait til the break above trendline to initiate long position. Otherwise, I am still short biased.
Contrarian Shooting Star GDXJ Resistance level held today, entered leveraged etf JDST at 56.74 with a stop loss at the day's low of 55.82, which is GDXJ's high of 30.31. Contrarian position due to bullish sentiment in XAUUSD, and bearishness in the dollar, but resistance was tempting enough to enter at with a tight stop. Factors to determine success or failure. Recent high of 30.31 is not broken. XAUUSD begins to trade within 20 day bollinger bands and relieves overbought conditions by selling off again tomorrow 10/16, VIX continues to go lower from the recent high of last week, and the dollar DXY establishes a bear trap and moves to retest its prior high. if JDST opens lower than its close or GDXJ opens above 29.79 half of the position will be exited, with the remaining sold at the stop loss. DUST entered as well, larger position in JDST due to greater weakness in Junior miners.
GDXJ: Jr. miners have bottomed - upside to shy of $70 possible$GDXJ is an exchange traded fund which lets investors gain exposure to a basket of gold and silver mining companies, which can be a very interesting vehicle to benefit from major moves in precious metals. In this case, we see that the daily chart is likely to start trending sharply up from here, with a chance of breaking above the long term resistance zone above, in which case, prices could surge close to $70 over time. We're long from today, entered a 9.5% position at $28.15, shortly after the market opened.
We may add to it on dips, if prices retrace back into today's range next week.
Best of luck if following me here.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Long to 29Long contingent on XAUUSD staying above prior months close, otherwise bears could push to lower bound of daily channel to 25. Long JNUG which is the leveraged etf of GDXJ from 7.04, target at 9, stop loss of 6.95. Put to call ratio of GDXJ and JNUG are < 0.5 indicating bullishness. Potential loss increases if the open is lower than the close and continues down based on hourly chart channel. If open is lower than close half of the position will be closed with an entry into JDST if stop loss in JNUG is triggered.
GDXJ - Bullish haramiFor those who doesn't want to test their deathwish with JNUG here is GDXJ the unleveraged fund of the junior miners.
As we are getting close to the end of this trading day a bullish harami is forming on the daily chart.
As I'm typing this gold is just breaking a out on the hourly chart.
... and forming a swing on the daily chart:
This candlestick pattern indicates that a bearish trend may be coming to end. Though we need a confirmation next week Monday a bullish harami is a good sign that we should enter a long position.
The word harami sourced from an old Japanese word meaning pregnant.
So this might be the sign of a new-born bull .
GDXJ Congestion resolution?-80 Week symmetrical triangle
-7 Week falling wedge "launching pattern"
-Weekly Bollinger band squeeze
-Daily gap ups all week
-Strong break of 200DMA which has been subduing price for a month and a half
-Gold price at inflection point
60 basis points planned due to smaller pattern launching the breakout of a larger pattern
Trend follow strategy
Miners on the brink of a huge breakoutMiners have continued to grind around. However, the underlying OBV is telling us that big money is starting to build their positions through high volume up days. Any trigger, such as ECB QE decision or FED rate hike decision or reversal of USDJPY, or the break of the broad market, could shoot the miners up into the sky. Plus it has been confirmed by CMF, the positive value of which shows that money is now flowing into the ETF.
