GDXJ Reminiscent of January 2016The GDXJ is showing bullish divergence on the weekly RSI reminiscent of January 2016. Then as now, we were at the start of a rising rate environment. The FED first raised rated in December 2015 and again in December 2016. We are due for a first rate hike in March this year. Will a similar move in gold & the miners follow?
GDXJ trade ideas
Long GDXJ Call Options - $50 strike / June/17After 18 months of consolidation and shaky global equity markets... gold's constructive (commodity price action) is showing that it is increasingly gaining acceptance as the place to hide.
Spot gold looks to be breaking out and the equities are expected to follow.
A bullish scenario for GDXJStill things are bearish from the drop at 1860 level. Somehow expected at first, then i didn´t think it willl happen, but finally it did.
Anyway, the bullish structure has not been broken and only a hard drop tomorrow or the next day will do it.
If not.
- Visit 1840-1860$ gold and a double top in GDXJ at 48$
- Move higher to 191x in gold and GDXJ at 52$ and closing gap from June.
Once any of those happens (if they do), correction will follow.
But i do believe that a leg u in GDXJ is pending now before any drop.
Opening (Margin): GDXJ January 21st 36/46 Short Strangle... for a 1.12 credit.
Comments: One of the only underlyings at the top of my high implied exchange-traded funds list that I'm not already in with 30-day at 39.3%.
Selling 18 delta-ish premium on both sides. 1.12 on buying power effect of 4.13 (on margin); 27.1% ROC at max; 13.6% at 50% max.
Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
Junior Gold Miners is a buy at this point in price and time$GDXJ is poised to make a bounce here. A potential bull flag. There are two major patterns that could play out. Both gartley harmonics of the type AB=CD. One big (white) and one minor (blue). The minor one also closes the cricled gap if it reaches its destination at 51$. If one is more long term oriented then waiting for the big harmonic to play out could be worthwhile, target 82$. Stop loss under 37.
GDXJ LONG! Gold Miners bouncing off support. Entry = $43.55.Entered at GREAT price right up against Major Support. Usually I post pics with MACD. Today I am not. Showing this chart as prime example of how Price Action dictates trade. Only using a simple system of Trend Lines and Horizontal support and resistance lines and some observation of candle patterns and you have all you need to trade. Another trade BUY signal will be once we break above the recent high of Oct 25, 2021 @ $45.75.
Entry = $43.55
SL = $41.89
Target Price = $54.86
R = 6.81
GDXJ crossroadTwo possibilities.
next week down almost for sure. And the 3th of November, again Fed meeting, with noise in the market.
How the fall comes, could show the mid term future in gold and gdxj.
Something between 40$-42$ I expect as almost sure.
And what cames afterwards is to be seen.
Could see another leg up, surprising everybody as November is always a week month for gold and the main trend has been bearish since June
or not...
And the bearish trend in gold remains powerfull and miners go down and down, what i was expecting to happen, but didn´t
Short term: bearish (next week)
Long term: Bearish (Months to come)
but caution for another leg up continuation in November as possible.
Gold Miners: Juniors vs Seniors - Here's What I'm SeeingOne of the factors I'm looking at in determining whether global gold mining shares can reverse their multi-month bearish trend is the ratio between junior miners and seniors miners.
The weekly chart sees the price continuing to trade within a multi-month downward channel and below the downward trend line. So far this week, Juniors are outpacing Seniors by 1.41% on a relative basis and while the trend is broadly lower, there are minor signs of a potential reversal.
(1) The 14-week RSI has made an early breakout, possibly leading the price;
(2) although below the centre line, the MACD has made a bullish crossover.
A similar structure is seen during March 2016.
Juniors are more geared to the gold price thus signs of relative outperformance could be an early read into the broader sector.
PM Technical AnalysisXAU/USD – Weekly
Very disappointing that we were not able to push through the $1835 resistance. We need to be more patient, I guess. The wide range is $1670 - $1835. And currently we are right in the middle of it. Sit tight on your hands is the best advice I can give you right now.
XAU/USD - Daily
No change on the zic-zac price action. Unfortunately, there is no additional comment or view to what I have said on the weekly chart.
XAU/USD – 4 hours
The mentioned fallback into the $1800 zone has happened and we even dipped into the low $1700 area. Current price action looks promising though. It is the only timeframe where we are above the base line (blue line). Watch the other time frames for that indicator.
XAG/USD – Weekly
On a “line” chart we are still in a valid potential bull flag. But I have to say price action looks weak and the lower leg of the flat might give way over the next few weeks. Then we go back to a very large sideways consolidation.
XAG/USD – Daily
On this time frame it looks even uglier. Potentially, we just texted the break out of the lower leg of the bull flag and could continue with lower price action.
XAG/USD – 4 hours
The only positive sign here is that we are trading above the base line (blue line). But I want to see a push back above the $23 level to turn mildly bullish.
GDXJ – Weekly
Not looking good. The break out on a closing level is confirmed. We dipped back into the first liquidity pool at around $38. If the we move lower the next liquidity pool comes in at around $33.
GDXJ – Daily
And back below the base line… No sign of any reversal so far.
GDXJ – 4 hours
No additional comments. No reversal signs in sight.
XAU/USD - Spot
Time Frame Overall Trend Conviction
Weekly Sideways High
Daily Sideways medium
4 hours Up medium
XAG/USD - Spot
Time Frame Overall Trend Conviction
Weekly Sideways High
Daily Down Medium
4 hours Up Medium
GDXJ – VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF
Time Frame Overall Trend Conviction
Weekly Down Medium
Daily Down Medium
4 hours Down Medium
GDXJ SUPPORT LONG I see support with an old 9 day Demark Count Look Left we are at day 9 of a downward trend. We are at the bottom of a Boillinger Band on the daily. We are at the mid line of a LR on the daily with Stochastic bottomed out. Gold hit bottom of daily Range . I hope Im right. 7 percent in the next week. Thank you if you actually read this. Please comment. Oh we are at the end of a GANN cycle for a while in Consolidation