GDXJ trade ideas
Precious Metal's Health CheckFirst warning sign is a monthly close below 1 year simple moving average. Until then, see pullbacks as corrections in a bull market, not reversals.
GDXJ - Gold - Watching for the reversalDefensive plays aren't what they used to be. I tried Gold back on 9/2, but got out quickly as it fell with the market.
There looks to be a 3 week delay between the market's panic and a settling down into a move out of equities into Gold.
So fare, we're still bullish in the equity world, but Gold could have it's day again soon. A friend has me watching for the reversal.
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR*
GDXJSeems like a decent place to go long. Bullish till the 50 sma and/or top of channel. Long but would love an open lower to get even more long.
"At or near a tradable low in Gold Miners"Gold Mining Stocks have cooled of as of late, and you can see from this chart that once again we are at channel lows for this one.
Although I'm NOT a financial advisor, I am buying the JNUG outright, and selling the December 24 100 put for a 990.00 credit which if works out will be a 10% return in less than 3 weeks.
Good Luck everyone!
Jay
When a bullish sign gets negated...Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
Junior Gold Miners: ZOOM OUTJunior gold miners have been consolidating in a tight flag above a major breakout level (around $50) that represented a price ceiling since 2013.
Long term ranges precede high probability big winners.
There could be a deeper shake out in play, but I ultimately expect prices to be supported above the 200 day moving average which currently sits at ~$48 and eventually breakout toward $70 per share.
The question for a trader/manager is not whether the price of GDXJ will trade higher or not. It's a question of opportunity cost. Do I hold the asset while it potentially does nothing and continues consolidating while other markets do well? Or do I wait for a proper signal and pay a premium? I'd rather wait for a strong signal and pay up.
FYI: I used the 7D time frame just to fit everything on the screen
Long Gold Miners (GDX/GDXJ)Huge upside potential for precious metals + miners. The miners been consolidating for several weeks now, and are running into the 200 SMA on the Daily charts. Big bullish divergences in the underlying MACD and RSI oscillators support an upside breakout. Open long call options with March expiration, and it should be an extremely profitable trade.
Year End Up MoveThis is what I expect for the next three months, and this is what I am betting.
1) If the Impulse has the same momentum as 2019, target in length and strength will led us to 82 at the end of January, and Gold about 2.200 $
2) If the impulse has the same momentum as 2020 (summer), target is 78 or so at the end of the year.
There is no so much difference in both targets, and there is a month or so in time. That means several things for me:
1) The most conservative target would be 78 $, which is a 30% rise from current levels in a few months (60% in JNUG)
2) If the move ends in January, the pace would be "slow", which means corrections of 7 % or 8 % for some days. So deal with it.
3) Both moves are in the channel. And depending on how gold does, we could move up the upper line of the channel, but that would be in January, although we could have some clues during December. Then, targets would be GDXJ 96 of something similar. But that would be like a good desert after a nice meal.
4) I´m much more confidence that the move will last until the end of January, because of other factor and indexes.
So, prepare for a bull or be ...
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Have a nice and profitable week.
Suffering with my long Position GDXJ I would like to share my thought about our current stage, as things seems to go wrong.
1) So far, the long term view has not been damaged. That means, I still see a new up leg. The base, that means the consolidation, has taken more that I thought. So It went out of the two parallel lines of the channel. So as it is said: the larger the base, the larger the move.
2) We are at a critical juncture. Historically, these lines have been good supports, even in the previous bull market (2000-...) So I'm confident that they will remain as supports.
3) Correction should have ended today. Although i don't have confirmation until tomorrow. I am not selling. I don't expect more falling. A new 4-5 days move up should start tomorrow and some gaps up (if not all) should be filled
4) During the previous consolidation, we also have a day under the line.
5) That's my point, and I don´t want nobody to suffer if I´m wrong, so please be care always. I've wrong in the pass and I will be wrong again, hope not this time.
Gold Junior Miners could be leading the wayGold Junior Miners could be leading the way on the reversal as they are completing a test of their Point and Figure breakout line. 115$-120$ target range. #patience #gold #silver $slv $gld #fintwit $sil $silj $gdx $gdxj $dxy
Gold Junior Minors, when to get on the trainLooking for GDXJ to break above 60 for a potential bull breakout with a target around 90
Or, a breakdown to the 200 day moving average to 42 to 48. It's harder to predict this bottom because of the expected upcoming volatility, so buy orders spread throughout this lower range is a good strategy to catch some (if not all) of that bottoming activity before the great bounce.
Of course there is always the chance it would break down even lower, but as always this is not financial advice, don't risk more than you can loose, etc.
Wedge formingSeems like it will pull back and bounce around the wedge for a bit longer. Maybe breakout closer to the election...
Junior Gold Miners - set your watch to bullish continuationThanks for viewing,
This won't be a long one. It won't be full of analysis. My case is just this:
These small speculative, under-capitalised, marginally profitable gold miners are now extracting a commodity that has surpassed 2011 highs - and looks assured of heading much higher. So, it seems safe to conclude that these exploration and mining companies look set to head for new all-time highs as well. These are small market cap Companies so they are more volatile (also I note that they had already started down from all-time highs before gold peaked in 2011 - to the gold to GDXJ correlation isn't perfect). That also means that big institutional players cannot pile in without spiking the market (they would then have to work out how to exit as well - which wouldn't be easy) which means this market had remained depressed for now. This lag suits me fine.
A small increase in the price of a mined commodity is normally translated into a much greater percentage increase in profit margin (for profitable mines anyway - or much smaller losses I guess). So holding an equity linked to the commodity will effectively "leverage" any commodity price gains. The EW retracement (shallow) from current levels and the extension of that move to new highs are speculative, but I'm just mapping it out so that I can picture how it may broadly unfold.
Maybe you think gold is going to crash in a highly uncertain world with ballooning debt, currency devaluation, the Fed seeking to stoke inflation, and treasury yields that will set below inflation for at least the next 3 years and possibly longer. Yeah maybe, but I don't think so.
If the ETF only reaches previous highs that will mean an 220% price rise. So join me and go long on political turmoil and out of control currency printing.
I will only consider a relatively small position in any ETF and if you decide to add the underlying base metal to your portfolio - please avoid ETFs.
Protect those funds
GDXJ Second chance to go shortPrice meeting resistance and has yet to fully meet Wolfe Wave Target Line
I will enter small position now with stop over recent high
Alternatively, sell Oct or Nov 56 call
GDXJ Second chance to go shortPrice meeting resistance and has yet to fully meet Wolfe Wave Target Line
I will enter small position now with stop over recent high
Alternatively, sell Oct or Nov 56 call
OPENING (MARGIN): GDXJ OCTOBER 16TH 49/69 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 2.15/contract credit.
Notes: High 30-day implied with expiry specific implied at 61.3%. Will look to take profit at 50% max/adjust sides on approaching worthless or side test.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COST, GDXJ/GDX, XOP, SLV, EWZA late "Week Ahead" post after a short road trip ... .
EARNINGS:
There aren't many options liquid underlying volatility contraction plays on tap this week. COST (35/38/6.8% (October)-10.1% (November) announces on Thursday after market close, but the volatility metrics aren't the greatest for a contraction play with 30-day at 38, the October monthly at expiry-specific 37.8%, and the November monthly at 34.8%. My general cut-off to pull the trigger on something is a 30-day greater than 50%, so I'm likely to pass on this one.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY GREATER THAN 35% AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING:
TQQQ (42/103/33.7%)
GDXJ (23/58/18.3%)
XOP (17/55/17.8%)
GDX (24/49/15.0%)
SLV (45/48/15.2%)
EWZ (20/48/15.1%)
XLE (27/44/14.0%)
SMH (25/40/12.2%)
QQQ (36/37/11.6%)
IWM (33/35/11.0%)
Pictured here is a GDXJ November 20th 45/65 short strangle with the short options camped out at around the 20 delta that's paying 2.95 at the mid price. Although it's a little early for the November cycle (58 days until expiry) if like to keep things in that 45 day wheelhouse, this is the best bang for your buck as a function of stock price on the board, followed by XOP, GDX, and XLV.
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (36/37/11.6%)
IWM (33/35/11.0%)
SPY (23/29/9.0%)
EFA (23/24/7.5%)
I've been engaging in programmatic 45 days until expiry, 16-delta short put selling in broad market in the highest 30-day implied instrument on the board. Here, it would be QQQ. However, there are only an October 30th (37 days) or a November 20th (58 days) expiry available, where the 16 delta strikes are paying 3.27 (the October 30th 235) and 4.22 (the November 20th 226). I've already got an October 30th short put hanging out there, so may just wait until next week when an early November weekly becomes available.
IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS WITH 30-DAY GREATER THAN 35% AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING:
SLV (45/48/15.2%)
EWZ (20/48/15.1%)
KRE (26/44/14.5%)
