GLD - Rebound time?Gap filled and bought back up all day. We'll see if next week confirms a reversal, but it's still holding the longer trend line.
GLD trade ideas
Gold: We have entered a bear cycle.This long-term chart of GLD reveals that we have entered the next bearish cycle for the Gold market. This cycle of the Gold market peaked a couple of months ago and seems to be following the same trend from the last cycle. In fact, if we use the fib-retracement tool to plot the pullback from the first pulldown from the peak, we can see that GLD has bounced up and found minor support on the 100% fib trend retracement line.
We can now expect a rise to the 61.8%-38.2% levels before falling down from there again. Be careful shorting puts or going long in those levels as we may never see another ATH for months if not years.
Trade Idea: Short GLD around $171-$180.
While it is unlikely for it to keep rising higher to new ATHs anytime soon, you can set stop-losses above at a comfortable level while leaving enough wiggle room. We can expect GLD and Gold to continue to fall from those $175 levels down below the $156 fib support, and then the 148 support area. Once the price breaks those levels, we can expect a high-velocity waterfall sell-off to the $136 support area, where we can also take some profits on the way. The key support area and the final price target is the parallel channel support around $107.5-$115, which we can expect to see in anywhere from 9 months to 5 years.
Golden Retriever GLDYea this could be pretty ugly if breaks here
Gold has walked on down to sub 1700....just broke after the Feb Jobs number down to 1690
Maybe this is the final flush out before Gold regains a bid on some inflation worries...
Though it really doesn't seem to care about that
Either way I'm getting long GLD calls here for a move back up towards 165 where there is a large open interest in the options market for March opex
If need be this trade will become a short credit spread real quick especially if USD shows continued strength
Opening (IRA): GLD June 18th 149 Short Put... for a 1.88/contract credit.
Notes: Adding a third "rung" to my GLD position out in June on this weakness. 1.28% ROC as a function of notional risk.
GLD oversold to support line + RSI low = swing callsPrice broke below the support zone, all the way to the white support line. As green arrows show, every time RSI is this low we see a move up in price. This is a big reversal open as well. I kept April calls from last week and am adding more for this move up.
Gold Bottoms TODAY.We have a weekly TD9 on GLD, and some major divergences showing up across the Gold chart. I believe today is a major swing bottom.
Wave 5 Correction. Strong downward trend. Short term down.Heavy sell off and no sign of upward momentum. All MA downward angles. Downward momentum is strong within channel. Still making LH LL.
Key support $158.35. Until it bounces off this level and shows some bullish candle patterns, I am cautious.
Preferred entry zone is below $160. Stop loss $156. But I would not take this trade yet. Very risky. It could get cheaper.
GLD possible cup and handle weekly viewGLD weekly view might be drawing a cup and handle bullish pattern. Lets wait and see.
Time to buy some GLD?In a larger huge triangle, hovering right above uptrend line that is unbroken since may '19. On the top of a reversal zone inside two possible bullish descending wedges. I think now is the time to take a stake in gold.
GLD - Taking a Long Term Shot HereInterest rates soar, what could be worse for gold? Taking a long term shot here. Bought 170-220 June 22 call spreads in the 7s. Price is at the 20 month moving average now. Well, that means nothing I guess. Prices could always go lower. But with such a long time horizon, the short term volatility represents a decent place to accumulate. Extending the trend line to June 22, looks like to could be 192 so this should pay off. If it goes lower, I reassess trends and add more.
Finale selloff in GLD - will reverse up when yields/USD dropOn the weekly and daily charts, my indicators all show that selling may soon be exhausted. On weekly, you can see price is in support zone and you can visually see three waves of selling from top (Sept '20, Nov '20, today). Initially I was looking for 163 to hold but there is too much yield-rising pressure so price is moving down into green support band.
I bought April 170 calls. When it is scary to buy at the bottom, keep your position size small. If GLD moves higher, it will get back over solid white line and you capture a fantastic price move. If this trade idea does not work you lose little (with small position) because you bought very close to stop loss.
Gold Due to Rebound from trough: LONG on Au $GLD Gold has dipped into a buy zone for a nice long now.
With the overall volatility of the market and overall uncertainty on the role of most investors, it is time for Au.
LONG Gold.
This lacks in terms of analytical depth but the low on the chart is overt enough to speak for itself. Now is a good time to enter.
-BDR
GLD Bounce of double bottom.Bounce of double bottom.
Stop-loss: just below double bottom support level
Take Profit: next resistance near 182.77
Gold CupThe potential for this pattern to play out
will be highly correlated to many things...
Among the most important:
1. US$ (DXY) - Potential for radical moves due to stimulus
2. Other Alternative Investments (BTC)
Sentiment
3. Fear - Trustworthiness of Paper Gold
4. Manipulation rumors
Possible Pattern Plays:
Entry - $160
Exit - $260
Move $100 (62.5%)
Note: Monthly Chart!
May your Cup runneth over!
OPENING (IRA): GLD MAY 21ST 155 SHORT PUT... for a 1.62/contract credit.
Notes: Starting to build out second quarter positions here and what better way to start than with an underlying experiencing weakness. Already have an April on, so going out to May to sell the 18 delta strike.
GLD - Time to Enter LEAP position?Gold has been retracing but several factors lend to a good place to establish a January 2022 LEAP call option position. First off, price has found previous support at the .328 Fibonacci retracement level and looks to be retesting on a monthly basis. Holding this support level would be extremely bullish in my work, on a long term level. Should price break below, there still remains a solid upward channel line in place. So one might have an even better price level later. This is accumulation phase here so don't get discouraged. This is not a short-term trade.
The channel projection, should it hold, indicates that price should be between 180 and 225 by the January 2022 LEAP expiration date. Assuming that the lowest price we will see GLD at the expiration date is 180, one can buy the 170-220 call spread, pay 10 or less, and feel certain that one can achieve a break even since at 180, the 170 call would be valued at 10.
One never knows how these things play out but with ever increasing fiat currency debasement worldwide, gold prices should be much higher. My last look at usdebtclock.org showed that there are $34,000 dollars out there for every ounce of gold. That being said, owning the physical for long term security always seems to be the best option. But for those who like to play the paper side as well, this seems to be an interesting play to consider.
(not financial advice, just a trade that I'm going to put on and my rationale.)
