GLD: tracking two counts both bullish long termTwo primary counts for GLD that I'm tracking. Both are bullish long term however near term - next 12-18 months - could see continued correction.
GLD trade ideas
OPENING (IRA): GLD MARCH 19TH 163 SHORT PUT... for a 1.78 credit.
Notes: Building up a GLD position a little bit here on this recent weakness. Targeting the strike that pays at least 1% of the strike price in credit, which here is the 22 delta 163. Going out to March, as I already have some on in February.
GLD - gold ETF - waiting for 162-166 dip to jump inThe most probable scenario for GLD is to reach 166 level before heading for the next (bigger) move to North.
GLD is inversely correlated with Dollar, thus for this scenario to occur DXY should increase, and then head towards South (inflatio, currency devaluation).
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Disclaimer: This is not an investment advice, just mere a personal opinion based on probabilities.
GLD - CONSOLIDATION PATTERN, BACK TO $190 THEN LAUNCH0. Notes to follow;
1. We were Long since $120 (Held a base), and did have "some" successful attempts to "short gold". We won't do that anymore. Actually, we don't want to short anything, ever again. We are really good at catching the top. Ok, maybe once and a while a quick short ;)
- drchelsea
GLD Breakout Rejected. Bullish for Equities.GLD formed a nearly decade long base. Resistance was broken but overhead supply was dumped on heavy volume and the price action quickly retreated below the former high. GLD downtrend ever since. Closed below its 150MA. Bearish for GLD and safe heaven assets. Bullish for risk equities. Don't fight the trends.
go long GLDThe inbound stimulus will cause a flight to inflation protection type assets such as gold and bitcoin. GLD being the most popular and heavily traded in terms of volume is the obvious choice to play gold prices directly. As fiat currencies lose their value, gold prices will rise.
This is also a good ETF to use for options because of how heavily it is traded, it is more likely that your trades will execute and have a bidder or seller for your desired price.
Gold is still a valuable component of a well-diversified portfolio. Bitcoin lately moves more like a risk asset.
Gold in its final corrective wave before bull marketThesis: Market structure for Gold is playing out similarly to the 2008 crash of the S&P500. With the FED rapidly increasing QE, it makes sense that the S&P 500 will see gains for the next year or two, and gold will continue to bleed until we reach an overall market top. From that point on, I expect a huge bull market for precious metals (GLD & SLV).
GLD to see a short term drop followed by long breakoutGLD has seen three major drops during its consolidation that always made significant new lows. We are in the midst of a forth. What makes this one different is that the preceding price action is more bullish. This demonstrates strength not seen with the other drops and so I don't see this one making a new low. If we see it drop below 166 (there are valid arguments to suggest that), then I'm wrong, and we'll be in for another month and a half of consolidation at that new level.
If Tuesday is indeed what I'm predicting, a small candle closing between 169 and 171, I'll buy a small position with a 165 stop. The reason for only trading a small position is because I'm trading a breakout that is probably a couple weeks away (kind-of like catching the falling knife trade) so I want to keep my risk low. When GLD does finally break, I expect it to climb into the 200s.
GLD target raised, 220 for wave 5Despite today's correction, if this pullback was considered to be the wave 2 corrective, then the overall expectations have been raised for a wave 3 to 200, wave 4 pullback to 190, and ending in the 5th wave to 220.
Disclaimer: The proceeding content is informational only and based on information available when created. It is not an offer or a solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice. It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
Copyright Rohan Karunaratne 2021
GLD Bearish ScenarioI can also see cup and handle on a Monthly chart which is why I wouldn't trade Gold either way at the moment. It's above Weekly SMA40 and I wouldn't short it for sure as long as that it the case. It's still holding VWAP from ATH as well.
Reason why I publish this idea is to be able to follow the price nothing more, it is not an investment advice of any kind, I'm a beginner trader with very limited experience and exposure to Markets still so take any idea you see from me with the grain of salt!!!
Reason why I charted bearish scenario is because I saw on Hedgeye that according to then Gold should spiral down so wanted to give that information a chance for a little contrarian practice.
Basically if it is correct I wouldn't short Gold before September/October this year. That's when R/R ratio seems to be the best.
Last time that was a nice 73ish % drop.
Good luck to all Gold traders out there. If you agree of disagree please do comment and share your own ideas, just no insults or sarcasm. Most of us on TW are here to learn and that takes time.
