$GLDGold had a solid year in 2020 gaining more than 20% as a long base breakout that triggered in June 2019 continued to play out higher and reached its measured move objective while the rally briefly broke above 2011 highs before pulling back. If we look at Fibonacci extension targets of the 2011-2015 correction GLD has upside targets at $207 and $220. The 2018-2020 rally has Fibonacci retracement support levels at $162.5 and $152.5. Gold rallied in 2020 on economic uncertainty and a flight to safety and has pulled back in Q4 with the greater optimism for 2021 taking hold. On an allocation basis, Gold may be losing some of its luster as a store of value with the momentum seen in Bitcoin, although that has not been seen to this point with global gold ETF inflows topping a record in 2020 as a way to diversify portfolios and hedge against inflation. However, November saw the second largest outflow on record. In 2020 the lockdowns resulted in a 5% decline in global output, so the supply-side is expected to rebound in 2021. Gold prices should be supported by inflationary pressures, a deep fiscal deficit and a weaker US Dollar. Goldman sees Gold reaching $2300 in 2021 as recovery from the coronavirus-related recession fuels higher inflation next year. Further fuel could be added from a recovery in demand from India and China.
