GLD Flag and Round UpGLD gapped up this morning back over its moving averages, showing bullishness from yesterdays decline. I expect the rally to continue and break the flag pattern and complete its rounding formation to $189 level.
GLD trade ideas
GLD short termLook at the so called "HS" pattern. The bears can not get hammer it this morning. What does that mean?
I would use 179 as a soft stop for long.
Wedge in actionI feel this breaks upwards regardless of what happens tomorrow. Any scenario is good for gold and commodities.
GLD playObviously if we close this week in this shape, ppl will expect a dive next week.
Let's assume no dive for now.
If we bounce here and close above 185, this will form a weekly bullish engulfing. This would be very bullish. However, I think the probability is not high given it is still waiting for 10ma to catch up. So, 180-185 is most likely for this week assume no big dive. Of course, one can tailor their strategy by looking at best R/R.
What if there is a dive.
I think UUP long is in a better position for near term play. But imo this scenario is less than 1/3 given a flat and upward MAs and TLT intraday reverse.
GLD Gold Trust updateLeaning towards original count and target ~170 to 175. Also watching for possibility of a corrective wave at this low. SLV could see same scenario
Playing the GLD PullbackThe trend is still valid, we have declined 7.6% from the high of 194.35 with room to fall within the support trendline and 61.8% fibonacci at 178.25.
The play is to buy the lower trendline/golden fib(178.25), or the 50% fib (current price range= 181.33) in increments, and not add if that range collapses until next support level of 168.29. beyond 168.29 and this doesnt fit my definition of a bullish trend within a 3 month window, with price drop risk reaching 147.59.
Dip buying reward range contracted from 24% in early june to +15% for buying the lower trendline touch in mid July, and +6.5% for buying the 61.8% fib for August 12th-16th high. Buying the lowest technical boundary with is the safest way to minimize risk in a mature rally where gold double topped within the same range as previous cycle.
On the fundamental end, I expect the Fed to get extremely creative if there is any kind of intense volatility and liquidity shock again this year, potentially resorting to stock ETF purchases. If economy surprises to the upside, I expect the Fed to remain hands-off and maintain the current measures and rates, leaving earnings as the key driver for equity market upside.
GLD Gold Trust updateCount is good so far. Watching out for the possibility of larger correction. Started last wave in this move
GLD medium term target 204As previously suggested, GLD touched 194 before correcting down to 178-181 gapfill, which has completed as of Aug 12th.
Now a bull flag has formed, 180 needs to hold for original bull thesis, with GP_C2 zone 179-180 being support. Bulls would want a decisive break out above the falling resistance as a confirmation for next attack towards 200. A couple of inside bars in the next sessions to consolidate between 182-185 would be ideal.
Looking for a measured move to 204.8 in the next few weeks.
Current position: LONG
Disclaimer: These should be seen as the commentator's Notes to Self. Hopefully educational but aiming for entertaining. No legal or financial liabilities should be pursued from these materials.
GLD Gold Trust Update - Wave CTarget hasn't changed yet. Still expecting another low around ~170 to 180
Gold CCI Divergence, consolidation aheadGLD showed significant redemptions in in the ETF outflows, showing a shift in sentiment.
From the peak CCI of 241 on the daily chart, GLD reached 177, then a divergence commenced, with a peak to peak decline in CCI of 77%, despite a rise in price of 6.4%.
My two key support levels are based on anchored VWAP because they demonstrate the accumulate volume weighted average price from key dates. From the pre covid crash panic accumulation to today, VWAP is 163, and from the pre July 27th gap and rally, 181.66.
I am currently on the sidelines looking for consolidation to occur. We have a lower high of 189.40 from yesterday, and the ATH of 194.45. I am interested in taking a small long position at the anchored VWAP level of 181.66, and adding at 164
Buy the DIPS! GLD GOLD XAUUSDThese pullbacks are forming a nice trend to add to GLD positions at discounts.
Renko Trends show clear strength toward $300 by EOY.
Similar trends in SLV SILVER
BUY
GLD can just go higher Given how extreme prior daily RSI was, more upside is very likely. The recent bounce is pretty strong, one can use any retrace for a short term speculative long trade. A meaningful correction without breaking down the important levels in prior post would be ideal to build larger position.
As a commodity, GLD options exhibit volatility smile. So for 1-2 days, I prefer (imbalanced) butterfly for directional bet. And vertical spread is pretty good for 1-2 weeks options. Longer term calls really needs patience.
In short, we should see more fun ahead.
GLD Gold Trust CountLooking for another low in this move for a wave 4 ~175 then onto a wave 5 finish ~220
Where dose the gold price go?MA 20 days line touch MA 5 days line. MA 100 days line still gong up. So watch trend.
Metals sold off yesterday because of bond yieldsIn a recent post, I showed the strong correlation between inverted real bond yields and gold and silver:
The hot inflation data yesterday and today drove nominal bond yields sharply higher. Bond investors demand higher yields when inflation is hot, which is why nominal yields rose. The rise in nominal yields broke a trend line. Here is the trend line break on the nominal 10-year yield:
The trend line break suggests it might be a good time to be short on treasury bond funds like VGLT, since bond prices fall as nominal yields rise-- however, keep reading, because as I'll note later in the post, you've got to beware of Fed yield curve control.
The picture for real yields is a little more complicated. The real yields chart above only shows data up to August 10, because the chart lags a couple days. Real yield is calculated by subtracting 10-year breakeven inflation from 10-year nominal yield. FRED's 10-year breakeven inflation rate was priced at 1.63% as of last update yesterday:
However, the new CPI number implies an annualized inflation rate in the neighborhood of 6.0 - 7.5% this year. Obviously no one expects that to persist for 10 years, but the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is bound to keep creeping upward after this hot CPI read. The question is whether it will move upward faster than nominal bond yields. If so, then real yields will continue to fall. If not, then real yields will start to rise.
It's possible, as a recent Seeking Alpha article argued, that the Fed is already exercising yield curve control to keep nominal 10-year yields in the range of 0.6-0.7%. If so, then we should expect nominal yields to stabilize here rather than to keep moving upward. If nominal yields do stabilize, then the rising 10-year breakeven inflation rate should continue to drive real yields lower and gold and silver higher.
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However, the trend line break in nominal yields suggests that if the Fed doesn't exert yield curve control, then we might see rising nominal yields outpace 10-year breakeven inflation for a little while, driving gold and silver lower. The next three or four days of real yields data should provide an important signal for where real yields and metals go from here. My best guess is that metals will bounce for at least the next day or two, and then we'll see from there.
GLD rally continues We are looking for a completion of wave (3) in GLD with and pending wave (4) pullback into 181 level. Wave (3) rally in progress for a move towards 192 before a corrective (a), (b), (c) pullback.
GLD Couple of reversal zone I'll be watchingIf GLD cannot hold the 180 area the green areas below may provide some support for a potential reversal or bounce play.
GLD - SELL OFF FROM $190 TO $192.50 RANGE0. We have been taking up short positions in GLD over $190 in the last week.
1. I thought we posted this, but we bought the August 21st 190 PUT;
2. I messaged a bunch of people so if you missed this, we apologize;
3. Looking for movement back to $175 range, and a nice profit on these PUTS.
