Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 1st WK MAY 2024Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 1st WK MAY 2024
> NEUTRAL 📊 CORRECT
Closed Price: 216.62
Target Price: 214.14 | Strike Price: 211.50 APR30 24'
Upper Range: 217.38
Lower Range: 210.90
GLD trade ideas
Acw may nfp We see a bullish trend towards the April ath and possible 2450-2490-2500 and a cpi sell within 2 weeks.
GLD - SHORT POOTSGold prices have been on the decline recently, influenced by several key factors:
1. **Correction from Highs**: Gold had reached a record high last week, trading at $2,413.80 per ounce. Such spikes are often followed by corrections, as seen with the current downward movement.
2. *Rising Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have both increased, which typically makes gold less attractive. As the dollar strengthens, gold, which is priced in dollars, becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies, reducing demand. Higher Treasury yields also make gold less appealing since it does not offer interest or dividends, unlike bonds.
3. **Economic Data Influencing Fed Policy Expectations**: Recent U.S. economic data indicated a 1.6% growth in GDP for the first quarter, which was below expectations. This situation affects market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Initially, weaker GDP growth might suggest potential rate cuts, which would typically support gold prices as a safe haven and hedge against currency devaluation. However, the current market sentiment suggests that investors are possibly adjusting their expectations about the extent and timing of such cuts.
4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran has also played a role. With fewer concerns about a potential wider conflict in the Middle East, the demand for gold as a safe haven asset has diminished.
5. **Technical Support Levels**: Despite the recent drops, gold prices are still holding above the $2300 mark. Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that there is key support around the $2250-$2260 area, indicating that prices might stabilize if they reach these levels.
Can see easily a demand area at 202 area, longer term.
Puts bought on todays micro double top. good luck!
Gold bull flag reviewI posted this chart in march on a bull flag that was starting to form with a projection to the dashed green. This is a great example of a longer term setup that rewards the patient. Of then these flags or wedges like to break out on strong volume and then dump for a retest, only to continue to project towards the target. If you had entered 6month to one year out calls on this setup youd be up 400-700%. I did not play this setup this time around but have played GLD bull flags in the past and like to use them as a way to get standard investment exposure to the asset with higher upside, this is also more capitally efficient.
-For example a June 21st 2024 call was 300-450$ in that timeframe in March, these are now worth 1320$
-This was my same strategy for OXY longer-term calls
GOLD : From SHIMMER to SHIVER- Gold Prices Set to Slide !GOLD has completed it's upward move. Though Analysts say that it will go up further. It's time to be contrarian as Analysts also manipulate the market for their HNI clients. here might be a small move up but more explosive move is going to be downwards.
Ignore this Macro Gold ideawhat are the chances that price breaks out, retests resistance and goes to the moon? Small I'm guessing.
Gaining Laser Vision: Sharpening Your Trading FocusIt's common for some traders to see things in black and white, worrying too much about the outcome of each individual trade and giving excessive importance to winning or losing on every try. This perspective is pernicious because it overlooks the inherent uncertainty in the process, which often leads to unnecessary emotional burden and is almost always detrimental to decision-making.
Unlike gambling, trading is more akin to a marathon than a hundred-meter sprint. Both for the trader and the marathon runner, the key factor isn't the outcome of a single operation or the speed in covering a short distance, but rather maintaining a consistent pace that allows them to reach their goals.
Just like a professional marathon runner doesn't run the entire race at the same pace, a trader will experience losses and gains at different times. However, the key is to maintain a steady and consistent progress, evaluated in blocks of operations rather than each individual transaction.
In the case of the runner, it's the stopwatch that shows the pace and acceleration, while in trading, the appropriate tool for this purpose is basic statistics. Both serve the same function: to numerically describe the activity being carried out. However, while analyzing the past is important for evaluation purposes, one of the most crucial aspects is the ability to make future estimates based on partial and past readings. While these readings may not provide much context on their own, when aggregated, they become powerful.
In trading, two of the most basic statistics are also among the most important: expected value (average) and standard deviation, as they are fundamental to adequately describe a large sample of operations. Additionally, along with an appropriate estimation of probability, they allow for the calculation of future scenarios through statistical inference.
Precisely, the task of statistical inference involves aggregating individual data points to obtain a broader view, enabling us to look towards the future, always recognizing the uncertainty and the importance of probability.
Thus, mathematics allows us to understand the irrelevance of a single data point, such as the specific outcome of a trade. Statistical inference allows us to anticipate future outcomes by aggregating past data points, allowing us to understand how irrational it is to obsess over being right in each individual operation. Like the marathon runner, what matters is the final result, so the truly important thing is to focus on the process and the discipline in applying the set of predefined rules that form the backbone of our trading system.
Moreover, an approach that moves away from the need to be correct in each individual operation and focuses on maintaining process consistency has the ability to completely change the trader's relationship with their operations, avoiding unnecessary emotional burdens, which often are the starting point for disaster.
A brief look at the scope of backtesting can help us better understand the power of statistical inference. It's relevant to note that while backtesting is an important and very useful tool for evaluating past performance, it completely lacks the ability to extrapolate (anticipate the future) because it only looks backward. Although it can calculate averages, standard deviation, and some other more advanced metrics, it always operates in a world where there is no uncertainty because all the data is known in the past. It also doesn't incorporate a probability estimation, making it impossible to construct future scenarios. In short, the limitation of backtesting refers to replicating past operating conditions and staying there.
While statistical inference looks to the future, backtesting looks to the past. Stay tuned to read more about it!
In summary, trading involves maintaining a constant pace, evaluating performance in blocks, and recognizing the importance of the process over individual results. This discipline and strategic focus allow us to look confidently towards the future, as if we had a window showing us the path ahead.
Probability Blueprint: Building a Winning Trading StrategyUnderstanding Probability in Trading
Probability is a fundamental tool in assessing the success of a trading system and making informed decisions. In simple terms, probability tells us how often we can expect a system to succeed relative to the total number of trades executed.
Imagine you have a trading system with specific rules that are repeated over and over again. Each time we apply these rules and execute a trade, we're making an attempt. The probability of success is calculated by dividing the number of successful trades by the total number of attempts, giving us a kind of "success rate" or probability of success.
It's important to understand that a good measure of probability is only achieved after a large number of individual trades. It's akin to flipping a coin many times and counting how many times it lands on heads. The more flips you make, the more accurate your estimate of the probability of the coin landing heads on the next flip becomes.
Probability also helps us anticipate the future performance of our trading system. Imagine that individual observations of gains and losses are the input for this process. Statistical inference allows us to predict the future value of our account based on past results.
The intuitive concept of probability is simple but has significant implications in trading because it allows us to quantify randomness, essentially enabling us to eliminate uncertainty from our business.
Here it's important to differentiate between the uncertainty of the outcome of a single trade and the certainty of the average result projected into the future.
Since probability represents the average likelihood of an event occurring after numerous repetitions, considering the variability of individual observations, it allows us to estimate our potential profit or loss, establishing upper and lower limits of our returns and providing insight into the future performance of our trading system.
In summary, probability in trading is a powerful tool that helps us evaluate the success of our system and make informed decisions. The better we understand probability, the better equipped we will be to manage our risk and achieve our trading goals.
In a world of chances, Probability is the KingThe Uncertainty and Probability in Trading
In a world where uncertainty reigns and the future is always unknown, trading becomes a realm where probability plays a crucial role. Throughout history, no one has been able to predict the future of financial markets with complete accuracy. This uncertainty is inseparable from trading, as we can never fully anticipate market movements.
Uncertainty is necessary in trading, as it is the origin of opportunities. Each trader may have a different view of the market, creating a balance between buyers and sellers, thus generating the possibility of closing deals.
Recognizing uncertainty allows us to enter a world of probabilities. We understand that no tool enables us to accurately predict the future value of an asset. Therefore, each operation carried out in the market has an expected success rate that is never 100%. Any unexpected event, such as relevant news or surprising economic data, can alter market conditions and turn an apparently perfect trade into a loss.
Uncertainty, therefore, is the foundation upon which trading is built. If it were possible to predict the future with absolute certainty, risk would disappear, and any trader would take every possible trade, becoming the richest person in history. However, in the real world, we know that success in trading is based on understanding and managing uncertainty.
Probability in Trading:
Probability in trading can be understood as the frequency of our successes. That is, the number of successful trades relative to the total number of trades made. Any trading system, no matter how sophisticated, is subject to successes and failures. Therefore, the most we can do is assign each trader an expected percentage of successes, understanding that there is always the possibility of loss due to the constant presence of uncertainty.
In previous post , I have explained how uncertainty leads to risk, thanks to the quantification of return dispersion. Now, we are in a position to intertwine uncertainty, probability, and risk and better understand the nature of trading. This is a world where success is not guaranteed, but where risks can be managed intelligently. Ultimately, accepting uncertainty allows us to make informed decisions and maximize our chances of success by managing our risk, all in such a volatile and uncertain field as trading.
In summary, probability is the king of a kingdom where risk is the queen, both becoming the two fundamental pillars of any successful trading system, whether done consciously or unknowingly.
King and Queen in the world of uncertainty. Recognizing their influence allows us to manage them and navigate better in this world of opportunities and risks.
Long live the King!
GOLD: NOT SO STRANGE AT ALLHi guys, if you follow daily the market here there is not a strange situation.
Many guru claim that we're on the verge on something big, obviously I don't know but this movement was so called.
When you find a pattern you don't have to act but react.
If you are wrong positioned, you can close and change position, it's so easy.
I was bearish 2yrs ago (if I well remember) on Gold, but since 2023 the pattern is clear and this breakout has confirmed that short the market is always a bad decision.
Let's see if we play in the same way or we could see something different.
I am not buying the GLD Breakout storyI think GLD is being distributed and I am not convinced with the break out. This is a classic Wyckoff distribution pattern. Everyone is now talking about the GLD break out which is the perfect time to distribute. It will go up a bit but it will soon come crashing down.
Not investment advice, please do your DD
Please boost and follow.
GLD get BoLD?I'll be long above the 8 day MA of lows (zero slope MA). Let's see if Powell puts the POW! in the yellow metal tomorrow.
GOLD GLD Proxy Potential $192-$197 retracement then rise!Explore the latest update on GLD Gold, featuring insights into our bullish outlook for the intermediate to long term, alongside expectations of short-term corrections. GOLD GLD Proxy Potential $192-$197 retracement then rise! Learn more about potential price levels and strategies by checking out CandlestickNinjaTV on YT!
GLD Potential Entry for Much HigherI do dowsing and have foregone technicals, so all my levels and timing is from this method.
Last Friday when I asked about the next "big money" opportunity (which is a new question for my work), it went to gold. The last time I asked this question, the answer was for NVDA, which then rallied 200 pts. So at least this question, so far, is 1/1.
Dowsing continues yesterday, and again this morning suggesting a long opportunity in GLD. I worked last night to get as best I could the exact scenario for this, and the chart depicts the results.
Look for a low in the $193-94 area. It may get a bit lower, but then continuation of the uptrend to a target up around $243 in July.
My last big gold idea in September or so, was only a few points from the last big low. Hopefully, this will have a similar outcome. GL!
Shorting $GLD here looks like a good tradeEveryone has been bullish gold here, but the idea never made sense to me. We're still in the beginning of a market downturn, and if S&P and QQQ go down, gold is going to go down too.
Now the chart is also confirming my thoughts. We just went up and retested previous support as resistance and now we look to be forming a lower high on lower timeframes.
This looks like a great spot to short the pet rock.
Idea would be to go short here and buy as we get closer to the orange and green supports.
GLD - so BoLD!10 days over the 2 day MA of lows. 5:1 very rare. Well tomorrow's number should certainly allow us an opportunity for a crash endo. I'd be short right here but certainly upon breaking that containment MA.
GLD Stall below $200 psych then resumption?Gold (GLD) hits the $200 target but may experience a temporary stall around $191-$195 before completing its bullish head and shoulder pattern. Stay tuned for insights into this pivotal market moment!
GLD - time's upIt's been a good run and there may be more BUT with 9 days over the 2 day MA of lows, it's time for a break. Tomorrow and/or Friday's numbers should be a punch to the gut that brings it back to reality. From there on to new ATHs? Maybe.
GLD the gold futures ETF LONGOn the daily chart GLD is in a volume profile early breakout going above the jagged pruple line
representing the top of the high volume area. Price has been compressing within a
symmetrical triangle and now has broke through the descending resistance trendline portion of
that. What remains to be seen is a retest of that new support line. Of late Bitcoin has ran up
and probably taken with it market cap away from gold. ( see my idea on the Bitcoin to spot
gold ratio) Now that Bitcoin has topped and is retracing capital is freed up to flow into gold
which has been comparitively weaker. I will take a long trade here and exploit the opportunity
in the cycle between gold and Bitcoin.
Gold making a bold move higher....As Bitcoin steals the limelight, gold quietly and gently breaks out AMEX:GLD #GOLD
Gold put in its first all time high for a daily close
This will likely end with an all time high by EOW or a highest ever weekly close.
Unfortunately, this leaves me with a conundrum as gold is a risk off asset and if we see a substantial increase, its possible it could be a signal of a risk off move from the liquidity sloshing around out there.
Funds have been allocating to bonds and money market funds as these lower risk fixed income assets provide an element of security during uncertain times and pay an interest yield. Gold offers protection and upside potential whilst providing additional protection against inflation.
In any event, it could be that we are due this long awaited move up for an asset class that has been moving in a relatively tight range since 2020.
The TA suggests the bullion bull gate may have just opened
Keep an eye folks,
PUKA
Major Breakout in GoldAs shown on chart of GLD, a major breakout occurred today. The target is well into the 200s.
GLD , the gold futures ETF LONGGLD is shown on this 240 minute chart with a falt top triangle drawn with upper and lower
trendlines for resistance and support. A volume profile is overlaid. Text boxes comment
on the basis for the trade and the use of the relative strength indicator. Price is low
in the high volume area confluent with the support line. I see this as a long trade set up
and ready to go. Zooming into a 15-50 minute time frame will help find the best entry.
The RSI indicator would need to have its time frame settings adjusted I typically use
one half the chart time and twice the chart time to get a decent time spread,
Gold is forecasted by some to reach $3000 spot price in 2024. Gold and Bitcoin compete
for dollar attention. Things will be interesting for sure.
