GREK trade ideas
Not Much Optimism for Greece after the DealThe risk from Greece falling into a severe financial crisis and ultimate withdrawal from the Eurozone seemed to hold greater trouble for the country's partners and international markets than it did for Greece itself. After news of progress on a deal that may reach €86 Bln, the GREK ETF reflected little of the optimism expected. Meanwhile, Euro-area equity indexes advanced and dragged global shares with it.
Greece Contagion EffectWith Greek markets closed, we have had to look elsewhere to measure the expectations and fears surrounding the Euro-area's most prominent threat. Will we can look at equity activity in the region, that is more a measure of contagion fears - which kicks in as the severity of fear gets to certain high levels. The GREK Greece ETF is more timely and certainly a substitute favorite if volume is any indication.
Greece the Bitcoin Second Coming?I continue to watch for signs of correlation between Greek capital markets and the value (proxy for use) of Bitcoin. Back in 2013, Cypriot capital controls looked to significantly increase the adoption of the cryptocurrency as wealthy foreigners used new channels to repatriate their funds and avoid account lock up and potentially new taxes. Greece doesn't have nearly the same tax haven status as Cyprus did, but there is a lot of wealth in the country.
Greece and the EuroGreece's financial and economic ills are a definitive concern for the Euro area. It doesn't surprise that the region's ETF and equity benchmark impose an indelible mark on the performance of the regional currency. However, QE is starting to be seen as a silver lining to other equity indexes (DAX, CAC, IBEX). Will Greece find the same peace and further stabilize the Euro or is a crisis going to override the central bank's generosity?
Greece Price Action Looks like the Fundamental SituationThe FTSE Greece ETF (GREK) has turned to a clear range. The consolidation after the substantial decline is somewhat surprising and somewhat not. On the one hand, the situation is not being resolved. On the other, there has already been substantial depreciation against other Eurozone markets where QE has offered strong levitation. A range now looks like a price equivalent of the uncertainty as to whether negotiations go through (GREK rallies) or a crisis unfolds (drops).