HYG trade ideas
Catch a Hot potato in Corp BondsNo one wants to be last one standing when the music stops. Studying the AD, money is fleeing Corp Bonds... They just got bailed out, and likely will resume share repurchase programs, and pension fund manager can continue to invest in high yield, why? Because the Gov't has shown us time and time again, they will come to the rescue.
There is a bearish divergence by the AD on this chart, bonds while up for the day sold off a little. This needs to stay above $71, I can't see a handle forming on this base just yet, due to the bearish divergence by the AD
Might get stimulus tomorrow; high-risk short term playTrump is meeting with bank CEOs today to discuss how to support small-cap companies with large debt burdens. The high-yield junk bond market has been bleeding lately because many of these bonds are expected to go into default later this year. However, if Trump's meeting produces some kind of stimulus or bailout, we might see this market rally. Cheap March 13 or March 20 calls might be a winner if we get a positive headline in the next few days.
WTI shows further downside on HYG is likely2016 level of HYG is likely and i don't see it getting better than the last one at macro level so far.
how many times can the Fed save the shale industries?HYG over IEI ratio shows the Fed needs to act immediately.
Short HYG Placed this short early last week, going to add to the position if it bounces back to $86. With the recent oil sell off and given 15% of this HYG debt is in oil, it is another sign a sell off is due.
Unusually high volume trading high yield $HYG in past two weeksUnusually high volume trading high yield $HYG in past two weeks
THE WEEK AHEAD (IRA): HYG LADDERED SHORT PUTSWith my low-yielding TLT position reaching all-time highs (and its yield reaching lows), looking to get out of my TLT stock at some point in the next few months and get into higher yielding junk, preferably at a discount over where it's currently trading.
Pictured here is an acquisitional strategy where you look to sell equally delta'd strikes laddered out in time. If price doesn't reach the strikes, you keep the premium (currently a total of 3.80 at the mid price); you otherwise take assignment and proceed to cover to reduce cost basis ... .
HYG - Strong SellHYG remains a strong sell.
Analysis Method: Fibonacci & Wave Theory
Monthly Chart:
High Wave Count:
Daily:
33 EMA Cross 50 EMA
Target: $67-$54
Will update.
FMW
THE FED AND JUNK BONDS HYG LOW 200 DAY SUPPORT AGAIN BE LONGTHE PANIC RIGHT INTO THE 200 DAY WATCH THE SKY LOOK FOR 89 PLUS VERY FAST
$HYG Testing Resistance$HYG High-Yield Corporate Debt pushing up against resistance from decade+ symmetrical triangle. A breakout here would send a strong signal about risk appetite in the markets.
A Major change in the HYG INDEX IS HERE IT IS UP !! For the last 18 months the HYG index corp debt market has been in a sideways pattern to which I wrote in great detail the over head fib relationship to which stopped the market in its tracks . But EVERY TIME IT MADE A LOW INTO THE 200 DAY AVG IT TURNED UP AS WELL AS ALL STOCK INDEX . THE CHART IS MY VIEW OF THE LABEL BASED ON MY FIB CYCLES AND MY WAVE STRUCTURE .I WILL STATE MY VIEW IS THAT THE HYG IS ON THE VERGE OF A BREAKOUT TO TARGET 90.4 TO 91.6 OVER THE NEXT 30 TD
OPENING ("THE KID"): HYG DEC 20TH 87 SHORT PUT... for a .95 ($95) credit.
Notes: She's gone quite aggressive here, selling the first out-of-the-money strike with a break even at 86.05. She'll look to roll for duration on extrinsic approaching zero to the first out-of-the-money short put for a credit or, at the very least, toward current price for a credit, looking to emulate HYG's annualized dividend (currently 4.56) without actually being in the stock. She said she's fine with taking assignment at 86.05, but would prefer reducing cost basis "as much as possible" before taking on shares.
She liked my "not a penny more" idea (See Post Below), called it "nice" but "not aggressive enough." Kids nowadays ... . We'll see how her "aggressive" goes.
HYG BOTTOM CYCLES AND WAVE STRUCTURE WATCH FOR A SHARP UP THIS IS A POSITIVE FOR SP AND QQQ LAST RALLY TO 3152
High Yield Corporate Bonds ain't looking good, dawg.Releasing this chart to see if the 1/3 of a triangle rule (timeframe) is accurate. Total triangle is 200 bars, while our bod is around 60 bars. We'll see.
THE DAM IS STARTING TO CRACK The HYG has been one key reason the markets are where they are based on the buyback with cheap to free money. the news of the PUBLIC BEING ABLE TO NOW TRADE FOR FREE COMMISSION IS A SIGN THE STRONG HANDS ARE DUMPING STOCKS HELD FOR THE LAST YEAR AND MAYBE GOING BACK TO 2009 FROM STRONG HANDS TO WEAK HANDS AND TO BUY UP ON THE CHEAP IS A SAYING I LEARNED IN 1982 FROM ONE OF THE RICHEST MAN I know the same thing happened in spring 1929 from April to Sept SEE ALL ARTICLES AS TO MARGIN 1929 CHANGES
HYG non-confirmation - Debt Market Leads Equity MarketHistorically has been a pretty reliable leading indicator.
Short Term Sentiment measures are at extremes, expecting a mild-moderate pullback to manifest in the next 2-10 days.
HYG(W) Watch Support 50 200 Triangle HYG(W) Watch Support 50 200 Triangle
potential Head & Shoulders
