EUROPE 2 scenarios: retest 2007 triangle @0.382 or Fib 0.618IEV Europe broke down from 50, a previous top several times. If it will not reclaim 50 next week, it may go down again to retest the previous breakout from a BIG 2007 triangle at around 45, which is also the
FIBO 0.382 level. If 45 will not hold, then the FIBO 0.618 at around 40 will be the ultimate low.
Not trading advice
IEV trade ideas
IEV Europe started wave 3 of 3; measured triangle move around 85IEV retraced half of the distance between 50 & 35. (Resistance & support)
It made a very long hammer in this monthly chart, bounced off cloud, ma100 & & then
crossed over ma50 to stop at ma20 which is also the mid of upchannel. (All in a single candle)
It also came down & retested the BIG TRIANGLE from 2007.
A safer entry is to wait for ma20 cross & hold 50 for a few days, 50 is a very impt pivot line…3x top in the past.
Breakout from 50 will send IEV higher to retest recent highs & the 2007 top.
If March indeed ends with a long hammer, wave 2 of 3 should have bottomed & wave 3 of 3 will begin.
A measured move of the big triangle projects wave 3 ending at around 85, also an impt FIBO level.
Although seasonality says Mar-April are bullish, come May market may encounter big whipsaws. (The ups & downs within wave 3). As the saying goes:”Sell in May & go away”.
This is just a guide for my followers, not trading advice
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European equities facing a headwindThe European equity index is a tough one to analyses. The index has had a strong recovery, however, there are still structural headwinds that the EU faces. Interest rates in the EU zone are unlikely to rise anytime soon whilst the Euro is likely to be deflationary going forward.
The trading signals suggest that the index has reached a high point and needs a correction to the downside. Whether that's temporary or signals a consolidation range, remains to be seen.
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IEV - Looking to breakoutToday I’m looking at the chart for IEV - the iShares Europe ETF. European stocks have been performing quite well due to the asset purchase program the European Central Bank announced earlier this year. This has driven yields on European debt into the negative, forcing investors to search for value elsewhere. Equities have been the beneficiary of this new inflow of capital, and stock prices have increased. Although IEV is up roughly 7% YTD and is outperforming the S&P, it has lagged the European equity market in general.
Taking a look at the chart we are trading up here right under $46. Clearly in a bullish uptrend since we made a double bottom on January 7th. I like how all the moving averages are coming together here with the 50 day and the 200 day on track for a golden cross if the bulls can keep the price up. RSI helping our case here, also showing a bullish uptrend with plenty of more room to run. $46 is an important price for the stock here, I like a trade to the long side with a break through this huge amount of supply. I’ll put my stop at $44.50 right at the 50 moving average. My target here for the stock with a break and close above $46 would be the old highs at $50.50.