IWM Diamond BottomLove this diamond bottom pattern. Wait for a clear direction and watch for the news!!!
IWM trade ideas
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again.
Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again.
Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200. We did drop underneath that 35EMA on Wednesday when Jerome powell spoke and then reclaimed it on Friday!!
So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of Trumps Week gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again.
Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again.
Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200.
So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of the interest rate gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
$IWM Trading Range for April 8 2025I went for it here - 187/188 bear call spreads at the top of today's range. let's stay in range today
$IWM Boom From the Bottom to the Top of the Implied MoveWe used the entire trading range
Alright - Yesterday - We stayed completely with in the implied move - you can see that both sides got tested which gave us some wild swings. Spreads on both ends paid. 10% intraday moves
We hit the bottom of the implied move, the top of the implied move and we saw resistance at the 35EMA.
$IWM Recap of Historic Drawdown WeekA historic week with unprecedented tariffs not seen since right before the great depression.
We broke many supports and are looking for Support
Stay Tuned - Today's Trading Range is coming out.
Don't rush into a trader just to trade - But also, if you see a great opportunity take it.
Market Update - 4/20/2025Breadth improving, a lot of stocks are starting to set up, there were even a few breakouts last week which is all constructive. Metals and miners are still leading, as well as defense names. NASDAQ:MVST is looking the best, have a good sized position in it, let's see how it evolves next week. I still remain defensive though, only 3 positions.
IWM Trapped at Key Gamma Pivot! GEX Squeeze or Breakdown ?🔮 GEX (Gamma Exposure) – Options Sentiment Overview
🚨 High-Risk Gamma Pivot Around 186–185.8
* IWM is sitting exactly on its highest negative NET GEX zone at 185.82, making this a key inflection point.
* Dealers are likely long gamma here — a break below can force rapid adjustments, pushing the ETF toward 183–182, where more negative GEX builds.
🔺 Dense CALL Walls at 187–190–192
* There’s strong CALL resistance stacked between 187.94 and 192.12, with 190 and 192 showing large hedging flow.
* Any upside attempt will likely stall into these zones without strong volume or macro support.
📊 GEX Sentiment Breakdown:
* IVR: 43.3 → Moderately elevated, volatility potential remains.
* IVx avg: 34.8, currently down –14.73%, signals a possible volatility contraction, which could hurt premium buyers and favor a grind or drop.
* PUTS: 53% → Extremely heavy PUT positioning, indicating dealers are short gamma to the downside and could fuel accelerated selloffs if 185 fails.
🎯 GEX Flow Summary:
* If 186 holds, expect more chop between 186–188.
* If 185.8 breaks, price could snap toward 183 → 182 → 180, where next levels of PUT walls await.
🕰️ Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Chart Breakdown
Price Structure:
* Price is tightly coiled at the apex of a descending triangle.
* Support is showing stress at 184.97–185.8, with lower highs forming — this looks bearish unless bulls reclaim the wedge.
Indicator Confirmation:
* MACD: Flat and neutral, no bullish crossover in sight.
* RSI: Grinding lower under 50, consistent with bear pressure building.
Levels to Watch:
* Support: 185.8 → 183 → 182 → 180
* Resistance: 187.9 → 190 → 192.1
🧠 Final Thoughts:
IWM is caught at a crucial gamma pivot with both sides hedged and waiting. Dealers are loaded with PUTs — if this slips under 185.8, we could see amplified selling toward 182 or even lower. However, if bulls reclaim 187.5 and flip VWAP, then 190 becomes possible.
This is a gamma squeeze waiting for a trigger — prepare for volatility.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always use proper risk management and let price confirm your bias.
IWM: Potential Trade Setup📊 IWM – Smart Money Playbook in Action
🔹 15-min chart | April 14, 2025
This IWM chart shows a clear sequence of liquidity grabs and structural shifts aligned with Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Here's a breakdown of the key moves and what I'm watching next:
🔍 Key Observations:
Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) confirm bullish intent early on.
Price retraced to a discount zone (below 0.5 Fib) and formed a strong base near $176.54–$178.15.
The rally respected the 0.618 Fib retracement ($184.32), aligning with the equilibrium zone, where price is currently consolidating.
📈 Bullish Bias:
We’ve seen a clean mitigation of the OB before the digging candle pushed into premium pricing.
Price is now in the mid-range (EQ) between discount and premium. If bulls hold above $182.75, we could see a continuation toward the next liquidity levels.
Next targets:
🔸 $186.80 (minor supply zone)
🔸 $189.50 (weekly inefficiency + liquidity)
🔸 Extended projection: $192–$193.75 (Premium + 1.618 extension)
📉 Downside Risk:
A breakdown below $182.60 would invalidate this structure and shift focus to the deeper OB zone around $178.15.
📌 Trade Setup Idea:
Entry: Above $183.00 retest with confirmation (PA or OB mitigation)
Stop: Below $182.00
Target 1: $186.80
Target 2: $189.50
Target 3: $192.09 (old high)
⚠️ Watch volume reaction around EQ and VWAP crossovers.
💡 SMC, Fibonacci, and EMA confluence at play – let price show its hand before committing.
📈 Volume confirms intent – we just follow structure and flow.
#IWM #SmartMoneyConcepts #VolumeAnalysis #LiquiditySweep #OptionsFlow #FibRetracement #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Wavervanir
IWM CIWM and the overall market are in a decent uptrend coming off crazy lows. with trump coming out with news every minute this makes swinging calls risky but i feel like i don't wanna pass up this opportunity. so I'm gonna buy IWM $200Cs for may 16 i would be taking partial profits just below those trend lines. i would have a sell for a loss if a daily candle close outside the channel
if u want low risk you could do it based of the 2H candle
Long IWMdbl bottom before a bullish up break, and general macro bullish from trump to lower rates
long with calander
Quantum's IWM Trading Guide 4/8/25IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) - Sector: Broad Small-Cap ETF (Russell 2000)
Sentiment:
--Bearish (softening). Pre-market put volume eased, RSI 44 up from 42, X posts overnight hint at an oversold bounce despite tariff fears, suggesting a less dire tone.
Tariff Impact:
--Moderate. Industrials/financials exposure persists.
News/Catalysts:
--Consumer Credit (April 8) could spark a relief rally if strong; X posts on tariff delays offer faint hope, though bearish bias lingers.
Technical Setup
-Weekly Chart:
---HVN above as resistance, weekly low as support.
---Downtrend (8-week EMA < 13-week < 48-week).
---RSI 44 (less weak), MACD below signal (histogram narrowing)
---Bollinger Bands near lower band,
---Donchian Channels below midline,
---Williams %R -70 (easing from -74).
-One-Hour Chart:
---Support at yesterday’s low, resistance at midday high, weekly confluence.
---RSI 42 (up from 40),
---MACD below signal (histogram less negative),
---Bollinger Bands near lower band,
---Donchian Channels below midline,
---Williams %R -72 (up from -76).
-10-Minute Chart:
---Pre-market bounce attempt, 8/13/48 EMAs flat (less steep),
---RSI 42 (up from 38),
---MACD flat near zero.
Options Data:
---GEX: Bearish (softening)—pinning pressure eased slightly overnight.
---DEX: Bearish (softening)—put delta leads but less aggressively.
---IV: Moderate—25–30% vs. 20–25% norm, steady volatility.
---OI: Put-heavy—high OI below close persists.
---Directional Bias: Bearish (softening). GEX’s reduced pinning suggests less dealer-driven downside, DEX’s put delta bias weakens, moderate IV supports some volatility but not extreme moves, and put-heavy OI anchors prices lower—still bearish but with less conviction.
Sympathy Plays:
--TNA (Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X): Falls 3x if IWM dumps, rises if IWM rebounds.
--TZA (Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X): Gains if IWM dumps, fades if IWM rallies.
--Opposite Mover: IWM dumps → TZA rallies; IWM rallies → TNA surges.
Sector Positioning with RRG:
--Sector: Broad Small-Cap ETF (Russell 2000).
--RRG Position: Lagging Quadrant. Tariff/rate drag persists.
Top 5 Movers (Russell 2000): SMCI (+2%), MARA (+1.5%), RIOT (+1%), CVNA (+0.8%), PLUG (+0.5%).
Bottom 5 Movers (Russell 2000): AMC (-3.5%), RKT (-3%), UPWK (-2.5%), ZETA (-2%), RUN (-1.8%).
Quantum's Premium IWM Weekly OutlookSentiment
Overall Sentiment: Bearish with potential for reversal.
Options Activity: Recent data shows elevated put volume over calls (e.g., 8 puts Ascending Triangle DEX suggests a bearish directional bias. Posts on X indicate traders are eyeing short setups, reinforcing this sentiment.
1 OTM Premiums:
0DTE (April 7 expiration):
Call: $182 strike, premium $1.20 (moderate IV, ~35%).
Put: $180 strike, premium $1.35 (moderate IV, ~35%).
Weekly (April 11 expiration):
Call: $182 strike, premium $1.45 (moderate IV, ~32%).
Put: $180 strike, premium $1.40 (moderate IV, ~32%).
Notes: Premiums are kept under $1.50 for cost efficiency in 0DTE and weekly trades. IV levels are moderate, reflecting recent volatility spikes but not extreme conditions, making these contracts attractive for short-term plays.
Technical Indicators:
Weekly EMAs (8/13/48): The 8-week EMA ($198.50) is below the 13-week ($202.10) and 48-week ($208.30), confirming a downtrend.
RSI (14-week): 32, nearing oversold territory, hinting at a possible bounce.
Market Context: Small-cap stocks like IWM have been under pressure due to tariff fears and a hawkish Fed stance. However, oversold conditions and seasonal strength in April could signal a relief rally.
Potential: Continuation of the downtrend is likely unless a catalyst reverses sentiment, but a short-term bounce to $185–$190 is plausible given oversold readings.
Tariff Impact
Exposure: Moderate to severe.
Analysis: IWM tracks the Russell 2000, comprising small-cap U.S. companies, many of which are domestically focused (e.g., manufacturing, retail). A 10% universal tariff, 25% on Canada/Mexico, or 46% on Vietnam could raise input costs for these firms, squeezing margins. Sectors like industrials (20% of IWM) and consumer discretionary (15%) are particularly vulnerable. However, tariff impact may be overstated—rising interest rates and a strong dollar are likely stronger drivers of recent weakness. Critically, the narrative around tariffs often amplifies fear beyond fundamentals, offering contrarian opportunities if panic subsides.
News/Catalysts
Recent News: Trump’s tariff rhetoric intensified last week, with small-caps hit hardest (IWM down 9.5% in 1M). The Fed’s hawkish December stance continues to weigh on risk assets.
Upcoming Events:
April 8: Consumer Credit data release—could signal consumer health, critical for small-cap earnings.
Mid-week: Potential tariff policy updates—speculative but impactful.
Speculative Catalysts: X posts highlight short interest in IWM and oversold conditions, suggesting a squeeze potential. A surprise Fed pivot or tariff rollback could spark a massive rally.
Alignment: Small-caps are sensitive to economic data and policy shifts, making IWM a prime candidate for volatility-driven moves.
Technical Setup
Weekly Chart:
Key Levels:
High Volume Node (HVN): $195–$199 (prior support, now resistance).
Monthly Open: $199.78 (resistance).
Weekly Low: $176.67 (support).
Trend: Downtrend since March peak ($208.52), testing year-lows.
One-Hour Chart:
Support: $179–$180 (confluence with weekly low).
Resistance: $182.50–$184 (prior consolidation zone).
10-Minute Chart:
Entry/Exit:
Bullish: Break above $181.50 (8-EMA) with a hammer candle for a long to $183.
Bearish: Breakdown below $180 with volume for a short to $177.
EMAs (8/13/48): 8 ($181.20) > 13 ($181.00) < 48 ($182.30)—choppy, no clear trend intraday.
Indicators:
RSI (14): 38 (10-min), neutral but rising—watch for divergence.
MACD: Near zero line, flat—momentum stalling.
Options Data Weekly Overview
Gamma Exposure (GEX): Bearish—pinning near $180–$182, dealers hedging accelerates downside below $180.
Delta Exposure (DEX): Bearish—put-heavy activity signals directional selling.
Vega Exposure (VEX): Neutral—moderate volatility potential, no extreme IV spike expected.
Implied Volatility (IV): Moderate (~32–35%)—elevated but manageable, favoring sellers over buyers.
Open Interest (OI): Bearish—high OI at $180 put and $185 call strikes, capping upside.
Potential Price Targets
Bullish: $185 (+2.2%)—tests weekly HVN; $190 (+5%) if momentum builds.
Bearish: $177 (-2.3%)—revisits year-low; $170 (-6.2%) on tariff escalation.
Trade Idea
Bullish 0DTE (April 7):
Trade: Buy $182 Call @ $1.20.
Entry: Break above $181.50.
Target: $183 (profit $0.80, +66%).
Stop: $180.50 (loss $0.70, -58%).
Bearish 0DTE (April 7):
Trade: Buy $180 Put @ $1.35.
Entry: Breakdown below $180.
Target: $178 (profit $0.65, +48%).
Stop: $181 (loss $0.85, -63%).
Market Update - 4/6/2025Was contemplating selling some puts to bet on a rebound next week given how oversold we are on all measures, but decided to pass. We are in uncharted territory and you never know how steep these markets can fall before they find support. After all, I'm not in the falling knife catching business.
As for my active account, I only had a few small trades booking a small loss for the week. Still flat for the past month. Overall likely cash will continue to be king for a while. I'm always on the lookout for high RS names though, but now things are extremely shaky to be buying breakouts.
US Small Companies Index ‘Russell 2000’ in Critical Trend!US Small Companies Index ‘Russell 2000’ in Critical Trend!
Let's take a look from a Fundamental and Technical perspective;
In 2020, the middle band (main trend line) of the logarithmic rising channel was broken and the upward movement had continued since then. Today, however, the same critical support level is being tested again.
If it cannot hold at this level, a long-term trend break may occur. This would significantly increase the risk perception in Russell 2000 companies.
What is Russell 2000?
It does not include large technology giants such as Nasdaq or S&P 500, but small and medium-sized companies that hold the real pulse of the US economy.
These companies are more fragile and more vulnerable to economic fluctuations.
The spread of anti-Trump protests shows that small businesses are starting to be affected both physically and economically.
The prospect of no interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) is crushing these companies under high borrowing costs.
The contraction in consumer spending can directly hit the profits of these companies because they are dependent on the domestic market.
Possible Scenarios for This Week:
🔴 If the protests deepen and the market panics:
If a break below $180 comes, the $170 support level is tested.
With panic sales, the $150 - $160 region, which is the lower band of the channel, may come to the agenda.
🟢If the environment calms down and economic data signals a recovery:
Strong purchases come from the middle trend line.
$200 - $210 band can be targeted.
In short, support is now being tested, if it breaks, the risk of serious decline is on the table.
IWM 20/03/2025 - LongPrice action is in an uptrend(higher high)and has touched the 0.5 confirmed Fibonacci level, the price is also "sitting" on the weekly and 2-week moving average and a strong multi-year horizontal trend line(the purple one just beneath the 0.5),
But,
Everything can change at any moment, and the market can resume the broader market's downtrend because of the uncertainty surrounding it.
Wishing you good luck
Opening (IRA): IWM May 16th 190/195/220/225 Iron Condor... for a 1.70 credit.
Comments: I think I have more than enough long delta on at the moment, so opting to go nondirectional/delta neutral here. Selling the 25's and buying the wings out from there, collecting one-third the width of the wings in credit.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 3.30
Max Profit: 1.70
ROC at Max: 51.5%
50% Max: .85
ROC at 50% Max: 25.8%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in oppositional side on side test.
IWM Below $195! Can it Survive the Gamma Squeeze Pressure?🧠 Macro Context
* The Trump tariff news shocked risk-on assets, and small caps were hit hardest.
* IWM broke below the $195-$199 demand zone, now sliding into dealer gamma hedging territory.
* GEX flow now clearly suggests a momentum-driven selloff, with risk of gamma acceleration if $192 breaks down.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H)
🔺 Previous Structure:
* IWM retested $201 after consolidating for days, then dumped hard, invalidating the breakout structure.
* The large red candle broke through the HVL zone ($199) and cleared multiple support levels in one move.
🔻 Current Zone:
* Trading near $192.40, where there's no immediate gamma support, making this a vulnerable spot.
Key Levels:
* Immediate Resistance:
* $198 – PUT Wall zone (2nd wall)
* $199–$201 – HVL, former support now resistance
* $203–$206 – stacked GEX CALL walls
* Support Zone:
* $191.43 – session low
* $190–$188 = potential short-term bounce zone if VIX compresses
* Below $188 = open gamma air pocket to $185
🧨 GEX + Options Sentiment
GEX Analysis (Options GEX ):
* 🔴🔴🔵 GEX = short gamma, dealers are likely short puts and hedging by selling into weakness.
* $198: 2nd PUT Wall and GEX floor — breaking this triggered the slide.
* No firm GEX support until $190, meaning price can overshoot downward.
Options Oscillator:
* IVR 40.4 / IVx avg 39.7 – moderate vol setup, but rising put pressure post-tariff.
* PUTs 21.5% – leaning bearish
* Spike in upcoming OPEX gamma positioning means dealers are reactive, not supportive.
🎯 Trade Setups
🐻 Bearish Continuation:
* Entry: Breakdown below $192.00
* Target: $190 → $188
* Stop: Above $195 reclaim
* Contracts: 0DTE or 2DTE $190P / $188P
🐂 Bounce Reversal Play:
* Only viable if $192.00 forms a strong base and we reclaim $195 with volume
* Target: $198–$201 (retest of breakdown)
* Contracts: 0DTE $195C / Spread to $198
🔍 Conclusion:
IWM is under pressure with no strong gamma cushion until $190. If $192 fails, expect volatility spikes. Dealers are likely hedging against further downside. Only reversal signal would be a strong reclaim above $195–$198, which may spark a reflex rally.
Suggested Play:
* Scalpers: $192.00 key pivot
* Swing: Bearish bias into $190 unless bulls reclaim $195 HVL zone
* Options: Puts for continuation / tight call spreads only above $198
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and trade with discipline.
$IWM BOOOM Perfectly Nailed the Bottom in last nights video
197/196 Bull put spreads were the money play today on that drop. And of course that would have been the place to go long on the day.
Market Update - 3/30/2025Correction: * New leg lower
Market seems to be accelerating to the downsides. I was ignoring the warning signs and entered a few poor quality setups so I lost probably around 2% from last week.
I've had enough so I created a new rule where I can only enter picture perfect 5* setups in bad market environments like we are in now.
Despite all this, I'm flat for the month and sitting on 100% cash, which is quite refreshing to see given the indexes lost quite a lot and we're probably heading lower.
I need to remember that sitting on cash is an edge.
We've been in a bad environment for over 120 days which is the longest consecutive one since 2015. I expect another leg lower but I think once we find bottom, we can see a really strong rally. Maybe that rally will only last 1-2 weeks and then the market rolls over and we continue the correction, but the momentum leaders with 99 RS ratings in that rally will likely go up 100%+ in short amount of time. And I will be prepared.
For now, sitting and waiting.
$IWM Analysis Key Levels & Targets
Heading into the island gap here.
Not taking a position here yet. The implied move was strangely wide today but maybe an opportunity will come up. For now here’s just the chart
$IWM: Retest the trendline?Just another TA that I want to watch and test. Big gap below. Possibly retest the trendline?
Yellow lines are my levels.
Green Ray for my possible entry
Market Update - 3/23/2025Chop-chop -> worst market environment for my style.
I'm 100% cash, not much progress since last week, but I'm happy I could hold onto my winners and not give back basically anything.
My biggest lesson right now is to learn how to be more selective with my trades. Even though I risk MUCH less than before so even if I mess them up it doesn't have much impact on my results, they still add up. If I take 10 losing trades of 0.3% risk (which is not at all uncommon in this environment), that's still a 3% drawdown that could have been avoided just by sitting on cash. My FOMO is something I need to work on and not feel bad for missing trades. I need to develop probabilistic thinking more and realize that missing a few trades doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. But damn this lesson is hard.
