IWMShowing good signs of strength at yearly pivot earlier this year. And then a recent bounce at the 200EMA. Not convinced this down leg is finished, therefore what we see here may be a bull trap.
IWM trade ideas
Opening (IRA): IWM Sept/Oct 160/150 Short PutsComments: Going ahead and rounding out Q3 rungs here with IVR at 82.7.
September 20th 160: filled for a 1.99 credit
October 18th 150: filled for a 1.61 credit
Will look to manage shorter duration rungs as I come to them ... .
IWM target 181 ?????We now have the right shoulder of a large head n shoulder top in IWM we could now see the next move under 191 best of trades WAVETIMER stagflation anyone !!!!
Opening (IRA): IWM August 16th 170 Short Put... for a 1.78 credit.
Comments: Starting to round out my Q3 rungs here on weakness and higher IV, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Already have June and July rungs on, so going out to August here.
Opened (IRA): IWM June/July 182/180 Short PutsComments: Added at strikes better than what I currently have on in weakness, targeting the <16 delta strikes in the respective expiries paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the small cap ETF.
June 21st 182: Filled for 1.89
July 19th 180: Filled for 2.22
I also briefly looked at QQQ and SPY, but couldn't get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, so am leaving those positions alone for now.
Opening (IRA): IWM June 21st 175/July 19th 170 Short PutsComments: Targeting the <16 delta strikes paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the small caps ETF.
Adding here on weakness, better strikes than what I currently have on in those expires.
Filled the June 21st for a 1.75 credit; the July 21st 170 for 1.76.
Opening (IRA): IWM June 21st 185 Short Put... for a 1.87 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike in the shortest duration that pays around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
The ROC %-age isn't tremendously sexy here, so primarily doing this to keep theta on and burning while I work shorter duration, higher IV underlyings (e.g., SMH, XBI, GDX/GDXJ, etc.).
Think inside the boxLooking at weekly, IWM spent its history up thru 2020 in big, red box. Then it spent exactly one year in the upper box. Two years in the green box. And 2024 went back in the upper box. It's now at the bottom of the upper box.
The implication being that, although it has strayed outside the boxes for a few weeks at a time, it seems to have returned, and mostly stayed inside each box for an entire year.
$IWM - Can we see a relieve bounce soon?AMEX:IWM hits the first support area of $192. It is the October 2023 pivot VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), which has provided support before. 👀 The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is close to oversold, so we could see a bounce soon.
IWM - buy at the key supporthi Traders
IWM looks kinda bearish and we're seeing a lot of selling pressure on both on daily , weekly and monthly timeframe.
Our strategy is to play the bounce from the key support level which is shown on the chart.
If this key support level fails, most likely we will see more downside on IWM.
Entry, target and stop loss are shown on the chart.
Good luck
Long Small Caps via TNATok a small long position on small caps by buying shares of TNA. Very small position.
IWM/SPY, high probability resistance, 26.decIn 26th dec, there was a high probability weakness in IWM based on this graph.
Top of BB's and impulse has no potential, yet important resistance/break out.
//rising TNX is bad for cyclicals or small caps.
Watching for IWM to bounce off support
IWM is currently in a strong accumulation area based on the volume profile delta. The indexes were a bit oversold after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes, leading to a bounce in the afternoon. I am skeptical as to whether today's PPI report and fed speakers will have the same effect so I closed my puts. Here is my reasoning:
VIX keeps rejecting above $16.25. If it does not move up sharply at market open, I expect it to reject again and move back down towards $13.00.
The 10y bonds chart looks like yields have topped out for the week after hitting the R3 fib pivot point. I see it retracing down the channel until next week.
Same situation with the Dollar.
I expect a small rally into the weekend or early next week. Timing will depend on the reaction to today's PPI report. I'd like to see a dip in the morning so I can minimize risk in case there is not enough momentum to get to $206. I expect some choppiness there so we can either continue moving up next week or head for new lows.
Also thinking this looks like another bullish wedge on NYSE..
Calls Russel 2000Price is landing on an important support zone, weekly support. I'm buying calls as shown. I think the double bottom pattern still active, and this is just a test of the broken resistance at 200.
Timing the market. IWMWhat we know? Oil is likely bullish in 2nd Half (24'). BTC leads the small caps. TNX usually works as a head wind (and has took a pause). Rate cuts are very bullish for small caps and financials benefit in this environment?
technically; the 20dma works as a driver. 50dma and 200dma just gives you context. You can add MACD to confirm things.
Im speculating that small caps breaks out in mid April.
U can fact check using IWM/SPX.
Small Caps take the lead. 50% gains ahead for $IWMCredit to Mr. Tom Lee for this one. Small caps are at a multi-decade low in value relative to the S&P. The Fed beginning to cut will be the catalyst for a huge move in the Russell over the next 12-18 months
IWM 5of 5 of 5 to .618 213.2 /212.9 Panic is nearing The chart posted is the IWM since the late oct 2023 low at that time my work and models calle for a 5 wave rally in wave C up since that low we have had more and more talking of an UPSIDE MELTUP and that the place to be loading up long is the IWM with some many talking a gain of 50% and to see 300 . Well I can tell you that has a 2 % chance . We are fast approaching the 5th of 5 in what is a diagonal and into the target of .618 .I personal thing we are going well below 131 and are already in recession what has been happening in the MACRO side is the monetizing of the treasury debt to fund it thru T bill markets and to add Liquidity >I am moving to a 100 % full short in IWM in in the money puts if we have any new high this week
$IWM - Breaking out!AMEX:IWM is breaking out. It is heading towards $230!
Stocks in the Russell 2000, like NASDAQ:RKLB and NASDAQ:SOFI , have yet to see IWM gains. But soon, they will get their time in the spotlight.
Opening (IRA): IWM June 21st 180 Short Put... for a 1.82 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. There is no July contract yet, but June is still paying at <16 delta ... .
More downside needed for small capsAMEX:IWM TVC:RUT CAPITALCOM:RTY small caps hit major resistance (the yellow zone) and finished the day with a shooting star candle. More downside is needed. This syncs with other indices NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
IWM Russell2000 11% UP ?Russell 2000 index - exit from channel towards long, above average 150, depends on the drop in interest rates in the US, potential increase 11% & more.
Only an idea and not a recommendation for trading!
