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IWM trade ideas

The Russell Riddle: which chart is 2008? ($IWM W) For the answer, scroll down to the comment section. Two charts of $IWM weekly TF. One chart is current (as of 2/4/2023). The other is 2008 ,up to 4 candles before the 50% drop. Which one crashed 50%? The conundrum: why do we assess current price action as bullish, when a similar pattern resulted in the GFC in 2008? There are many possible answers, none of them wrong. The one that interests me is the possibility that our bias is more extreme when we have experienced (traded) the price history. In this case it means experiencing the climb from the October 2022 lows. The alternative is basing our bias on the price history in a chart but *without* experiencing the returns themselves. For example IWM's similar price action in 2008. Any difference in sentiment would be consistent with studies showing that decisions made from experience often diverge from those based on description.
AMEX:IWM
by gb50k
10
Opening (IRA): IWM February 17th 193 Covered Call... for a 183.77 debit. Comments: Since I still have broad market short delta hedges on in IWM, QQQ, and SPY, replacing a lot of the long delta I took off yesterday in one fell swoop here with covered calls. Here, I'm selling the short call paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. The 193 is paying 2.10 ($210) at the moment, and I'll look to roll it at 50% max. This isn't the best place to be doing this, since IWM is well off its lows and risk premium has collapsed here, but am just looking to keep my portfolio "net delta happy" for the moment.
AMEX:IWMLong
by NaughtyPines
#IWM Russel 2000 looking technically bullishSome real meaningful progression for the bull case in US small cap stocks. 50 dma > 200dma Price has cleared the critical resistance level between 187-188. Price has some short term resistance at the 38.2% fib retracement here, but it looks like we should progress to the next resistance level at the 50% fib retracement at 200. Chart is showing a clear formation of higher swing lows and higher highs. Hard to be bearish this chart. Opportunity here to buy the breakout with a relatively small stop as a close below 187.50 might put the bullish case on hold.
AMEX:IWMLong
by MarcoOlevano
Programming Pinescript for an EMA IndicatorThis is a tutorial on how to program a simple, EMA indicator in pinescript. I use pinescript heavily in my day to day trading and, as I am not a coder, I struggled at the start to try and find resources on how to program using it. So I thought I would provide a brief video tutorial on very basic, fundamental aspects of pinescript by having you create your very own, functional indicator! At the same time as creating an indicator, it will give you a sense of the fundamental basics of pinescript that will hopefully make you feel a bit more comfortable in tackling projects on your own. Of course, I can't cover all of the functionality and all of the options in a 20 minute video, but this will give you a strong foundation to perform basic to more intermediate tasks with pinescript, if this is something you are interested in. I do plan on doing more quantitative based tutorials this year, and many of my methods utilize pinescript heavily. So before I do that, I figured its good to give you a basic understanding of pinescript before showing you more advanced stuff of what I do. Please note, I am not a coder and only started learning this stuff last year. Coding was very scary and I perceived it as "impossible" for me to learn. But here I am, not even a full year later and have been able to learn a ton, with much thanks to the tradingview community! If I can do it, so can you! If you would like to see more tutorials on pinescript functionality and more advanced functions, please let me know and I am happy to continue to build on these fundamentals for you to develop more advanced skills. As always, take care, thanks for watching and safe trades everyone!
AMEX:IWMEducation
by Steversteves
9
RUT @ the gate of "Havens", if rejected only "Hell" is the ALT !Golden Cross vs. Death Cross: An Overview Technical analysis involves the use of statistical analysis to make trading decisions. Technical analysts use a ton of data, often in the form of charts, to analyze stocks and markets. At times, the trend lines on these charts curve and cross in ways that form shapes, often given funny names like "cup with handle," "head and shoulders," and "double top." Technical traders learn to recognize these common patterns and what they might portend for the future performance of a stock or market. A golden cross and a death cross are exact opposites. A golden cross indicates a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross signals a long-term bear market. Both refer to the solid confirmation of a long-term trend by the occurrence of a short-term moving average crossing over a major long-term moving average. KEY TAKEAWAYS A golden cross suggests a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross suggests a long-term bear market. Either crossover is considered more significant when accompanied by high trading volume. Once the crossover occurs, the long-term moving average is considered a major support level (in the case of the golden cross) or resistance level (in the instance of the death cross) for the market from that point forward. Either cross may occur as a signal of a trend change, but they more frequently occur as a strong confirmation of a change in trend that has already taken place.
AMEX:IWM
by samitrading
I'm still fascinated by the small cap crashI continue to be fascinated by the fact that small caps once retraced their entire post-Covid move. What I mean is, the Russell 2000, which is 2,000 companies that are identified as small cap stocks, had such a terrible year in 2022 that they went BELOW were they were before Covid was ever a thing. But why is this interesting? Because roughly $5 trillion was spent to stimulate the economy in various ways after the first Covid panic occurred. So let's quickly think about that: the Russell 2000 was, at one point lower last year than it was before an extra $5 trillion hit the economy. I continue to wonder what this means: did the market overreact? Is it stagflation? Did the recent rise in interest rates suck that $5 trillion back up? The money supply is shrinking again? There are tons of questions to consider and I also think it's important to wonder if this is still not the end. The following assets have still not yet retraced their covid highs: • Tech stocks and the Nasdaq 100 • The S&P 500 • The Housing Market • Inflation • Price of food • Price of average goods Keep in mind, several other assets have retraced and crashed quite hard including: • Vehicle sales and car prices • Crypto market • Treasuries/bonds So the question remains: is there more carnage ahead or will the market stabilize from here? The Fed does seem to be on a mission to crash food prices, inflation, and by extensions soaring housing. So one must wonder if the policy toward that eventually makes its way back into markets, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, or if indeed the worst is over and now we are plateauing. Part of me thinks its possible the Fed will get inflation under control while also preserving some of the market gains in tech, S&P 500, and more. Time will tell. So much more to think about.
Editors' picks
AMEX:IWM
by scheplick
13
IWM: Week of Jan 17Taking a break as planned from SPY but thought I would share my thoughts on IWM. But in full disclosure some referencing of SPY will happen. Additionally, I have ran the probabilities on all of my stocks except BA, and they are all pretty underwhelming. So let's get into it: Next week: Probability is mixed. As you can see from the chart, we have 1:3 for the bull range and 1:3 for the bear range. What does this mean? Generally, this kind of mixed probability means a sentiment shift mid week. Looking at the economic calendar for next week, we do have some catalysts, most notably jobless claims on Thursday, so that is where I would be looking for a potential sentiment shift if it were to occur. Looking deeper into the probability, there is a slight preference for bullishness, but nothing overly substantial that I would feel comfortable swinging to. We also have a short trading week next week which is something to keep in mind. Price Targets: Weekly price targets for IWM are as follows: Bull 1. 188.31 2. 190.44 3. 192.57 Bear: 1. 185.37 2. 182.82 3. 180.27 Reference Target Immediate reference target is shown in purple and rests at 186.89. Opening below, I would be bullish, opening above, I would be bearish (until the target is taken out). Tuesday Outlook: There is definitely a notable bearish bias showing up in the probability for Tuesday. What is interesting is that, the prospective targets seem to favour a move to 185.63. But the intra-day (Real time) targets have a slight bullish bias. This leads me to speculate that dip buying will continue into Tuesday, with a potential gap down leading to dip buyers stepping in as the market opens. However, again, the probabilities do favour, overall, more of a bearish bias on Tuesday, so its important to exercise caution if you plan to day trade this index. Overall Analysis: When the stock has these kinds of odds, in order to gain more insight into the likely trajectory, I apply a test that is applied in law, called the "Totality of the Circumstances" test. This simply means I look at all the facts and all of the data I have available to me and develop the most logical and simple thesis that attempts to explain the data in logical and actionable trading plans. Based on this type of qualitative analysis, the thesis I would adopt leading into next week would be: Overall bullish bias to start of the week with a notable pullback leading into Tuesday. This is supported by the overall need of pullback (IWM gained over 5% on the weekly and is running pretty hot on its overboughtness) and the fact that the intra-day probabilitie support bearishness on IWM with a move to the 185 range. We can expect the stock to move towards the upper bullish range. This is supported by the slight bullish bias noted in the quantitative data on the weekly. However, we can expect the market to react to a catalyst and change direction mid-week. Whether that be SPY hitting its overhead, year long trendline in the 400s, or whether that be jobs data or another economic catalyst. This is supported by the overall probabilities having identical support for bullish and bearish targets. It is possible we come crashing down to the bear targets (if we start with a bullish sentiment) or go parabolic up to the bull targets (if we start with a bearish sentiment). However, it is also possible, and supported with the probabilities, that we remain range bound without actually making or piercing into the bullish or bearish range. If the catalyst is not strong enough to sway the market in either direction, we could very well see a market that remains range bound and undecided. One thing is likely though. That is that IWM is going to experience some selling. How do I know? Because IWM has exceeded its monthly range: While IWM will drop from its range and sustain this, it generally will not sustain a bullish exceedance of its range this early on in the month: It doesn't usually sustained this kind of selling either this early in the month: It generally waits to later in the month before it does any type of more aggressive move out of its range. So judging by current timelines, we should see this sell back into the range at some point. My plan: How I manage weeks like this is by limiting my trades to day trades and, if taking a swing position, limiting it to small positions. I would be inclined to swing short if we see IWM make it to that green box and SPY reject from its overhead resistance. I would be inclined to buy dips on Tuesday. We will have to see where the 99% targets fall. RTY, YM1! and ES1! have already taken out their weekly 99% targets this evening. So we will need to reference the 99% on SPY, DIA and IWM on Tuesday. These can give us a clue into the overall direction of the stock for the week. As always, I will update to this post as an addendum as information and data become available to me. Leave your questions and comments below and trade safe everyone!
AMEX:IWM
by Steversteves
2