Opening (IRA): IWM August 26th 150 Short Put... for a 1.54 credit.
Comments: Replacing the shorter duration long delta I just stripped off, but at a lower strike and in longer duration.
IWM trade ideas
Closed (IRA): IWM July 29th 155 Short Put... for a .58 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 1.61 credit. (See Post Below). Closing out here at >50% max, 1.03 ($103) profit.
Not Cheap YetSome people say that things are getting cheap. I agree, they are in the process of getting cheap, but we're not quite there yet as far as historical bottoms go. The Russell isn't that cheap yet, still twice as expensive as in 2009. Unless a true miracle happens, it's hard to see any upside in this market as far as real wealth terms(as opposed to numerical price increase) in the near future. On the contrary, we have seen much further downsides in the past. We might see a reflexive bounce in the future and a bear market rally, though we are in a steep downward momentum.
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!
Opening (IRA): IWM August 26th 150 Short Put... for a 1.49 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the expiry nearest 45 days. I added a rung in this expiry on Friday at the 155, so am just adding a smidge at a lower strike on weakness and uptick in implied volatility.
IWM: Week of July 11Same setup here as SPY, but IWM is slightly more true to its descending channel.
SPY has overhead resistance at 393, IWM's overhead resistance channel is at roughly 180.
If SPY breaks over 393, its likely IWM will probably follow.
Predicted trading range for this week is in the green box: 165 - 183.
This has seen slight bullish divergence from last week's range of 160 - 177.
IWM seems to be forming a short term wedge been June 17 and July 8th.
IWM is extremely playable within this channel and tends to maintain its mathematical range better than SPY. So the odds are that it will remain within this trading range next week, absent some type of catalyst that drives it parabolic to the upside or downside (which in this case could technically be CPI).
I am neither short nor long biased here, just playing the range.
Trade safe!
Let me know your questions/comments below!
Rolled (IRA): IWM July 22nd 169 Short Put to August 26th 155... for a .25 credit.
Comments: (Late Post). Didn't collect much credit here, but this is the highest strike rung of my short put ladder and would prefer rolling it out of harm's way/to a lower cost basis strike since the market's given me the opportunity here. Total credits collected of 4.79 (See Post Below) plus the .25 here for a total of 5.04.
Rolled: IWM August 19th 158 Short Put to 162... for a .65 credit.
Comments: (Late Post). Rolled up the short put side of my short strangle to delta balance. Total credits collected of 4.73.
Opening (IRA): IWM August 19th 156 Short Put... for a 1.64 credit.
Comments: Adding some long delta back in here after taking profit on some rungs earlier. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Closed (IRA): IWM July 22nd 162 Short Put... for a .67 debit.
Comments: Opened for 1.65 (See Post Below); closing out here at >50% max for a .98 ($98) profit.
Short IWMLooking to sell the Russell, set up looks ready for a drop, watch price action on lower time frame before pulling the trigger. GDLK.
IWMQuestion is do we have an overthrow at play? If yes the IWM needs to get back into my channel and not reject here off the bottom channel TL.
A rejection would almost certainly equal $138 and invalidate the 5 wave intermediate structure.
Opening (IRA): IWM August 19th 150 Short Put... for a 1.57 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta short put paying around 1% in credit in the expiry nearest 45 days to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
Rolling: IWM August 19th 192 Short Call to 183... for a 1.27 credit.
Comments: Delta balancing my IWM short strangle a smidge ... . Total credits collected of 4.08. End-of-day delta/theta 4.86/11.98. Will look at managing any remaining setups that are "out of kilter" on Friday.
Rolling: IWM August 5th 158/187.5 to August 19th 158/192... for a .46 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gain and recentering risk/balancing delta. Total credits collected of 2.81. Delta/theta 2.69/10.46.
Opened (IRA): IWM August 5th 154 Short Put... for a 1.56 credit.
Comments: Adding back in some long delta here in IWM, targeting the <16 strike in the expiry nearest 45 days paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Closed: IWM July 29th 145 Short Put... for a .46 debit.
Comments: Opened for a 1.91 credit (See Post Below); out during Friday's session for .46. 1.45 ($145) profit.
Closed (IRA): IWM July 29th 140 Short Put... for a .53 debit.
Comments: In for a 1.49 credit(See Post Below); out at >50% max here on movement plus volatility contraction. .96 ($96) profit.
Closed (IRA): IWM July 1st 154 Short Put... for a .10 debit.
Comments: Opened for a 1.64 credit (See Post Below). Closing here for .10; 1.54 ($154) profit.
Rolling: IWM July 22nd 167.5/172 to August 5th 158/187.5... for a 6.04 debit.
Comments: Rolling out and paying a debit here that is smaller than total credits collected to reduce buying power effect. Up to this point, I'd collected a total of 8.39 in credits, so I'm still net credit on the setup by 2.35, but it's currently marking at 4.57 or so, so I'm down 2.22 on the position at this point. The setup, however, is now "delta/theta happy" at -4.03/12.39 and isn't being such a buying power pig.
Russell 2000 reconstitution 6/27On June 27, the popular Russell indexes will get their annual refresh, an event that has historically triggered major market volatility in dozens of impacted stocks. Every year on the fourth Friday of June, the Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Russell 3000 and other Russell indexes are reconstituted. The day of the annual Russell reconstitution has often been one of the highest-volume trading days of the year, largely thanks to institutional investors and funds that track the Russell indexes adjusting their holdings to reflect the updates. This year, the Russell U.S. Index reconstitution will occur before the market opens on June 27. (Source: Forbes) Here's levels on the IWM 4-hour chart:
R3 = $180.03
R2 = $176.63
R1 = $173.23
pivot = $169.84
S1 = $166.44
S2 = $163.04
S3 = $159.65
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
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Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
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Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
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Fibonacci VIP - volume
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pi RSI - trend momentum
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IWM Fakeouts Are a Tradeable TrendThe Russell likes its fakeouts. We had two to the upside recently. We could be seeing a fake breakdown developing now. $170 is the level I'll be watching. A close above there on Friday would be a trigger a long with a target of $185-$190.
IWMThe set up from LT support off the bottom channel has Nuked (of course) and I say that b c this year is the year where everything looks like a perfect set up that just nukes. (except oil trades) At this point IWM can still be an over throw, if small caps are pricing in all this inflation & War in Ukraine & recession talk. If the chart is to follow NQ then we have much more pain ahead. Looking at OTC stocks I am really unsure as to how much more pain can be endured. They all seem pretty bottomed. So watching for an MM overthrow here and confirmation would be working the candle sticks back into the LT channel IMO.
Rolled: IWM July 22nd 176 Short Call to 172... for a 1.35 credit.
Comments: Rolling down the untested side of my July 22nd short strangle, the short put leg of which is at the 167.5. Total credits collected of 8.39. End of day delta/theta 7.48/19.31.
