IWM trade ideas
US Small Caps ($IWM) Small caps looks a bit tired, just hit trend resistance from 2001, and has been on down trend since.
Monthly RSI is also showing that we have turned down, which means increased likelihood that we are revisiting 100WMA (golden MA) or lower soon.
Monthly RSI might hold at this level and reach to upper trendline again, but R:R ratio is a bit... meh.
HOWEVER, relative to SPY small caps still present good value.
Small Caps ($IWM) to outperform S&P 500?Risk-reward of relative performance points to small caps outperforming large caps in the next few years.
HOWEVER, in recessionary bear markets... small caps tend to underperform, so be aware!
Closing (IRA): IWM April 1st 175 Short Put... for a .27 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 1.98 credit. (See Post Below). Out here for a net profit of 1.71 ($171). Still have April 8th, 14th, 22nd, and 29th rungs on.
Closed (IRA): IWM March 31st 178 Short Put... for a .29 debit.
Comments: I'd ordinarily roll this out to the weekly, but we don't have a May 6th expiry yet. I've already got a rung on in the April 29th expiry, so am just taking profit here. Total credits collected of 2.67. (See Post Below). Closing hour here results in a profit of 2.38 ($238).
IWMH&S still in tact. Want to see YTD VWAP (purple line) hold as resistance here. Otherwise h&s is invalid.
IWM sella very strong green candel breaking the level of resistance with loot of force indicates the end of the uptrend and a fall under the level
IWM Call credit spread204/205 Call credit
10 DTE
0.20, 2 mins before the close.
Tried for 0.22 and 0.21, couldn't get it.
Testing descending VWAP.
Not testing VWAP on M2K or RTY yet 1980
IWMDaily Report
IWM price action is looking weak. It had a 2% down day with increase in volume. So it looks like the bears are motivated. The RSI just broke out to the downside so most likely the price will break down and head to 178 support level.
IWMBearish engulfing candle today within the head & shoulders. Looking for lower the next couple weeks as long as it's below YTD VWAP, 50 sma, etc.
Opening: IWM April 22nd 175/217 Short Strangle... for a 3.68 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (73/35). Selling 15 delta on both sides. 3.68 credit on buying power effect of 21.09 (on margin). 17.4% ROC at max; 8.7% at 50% max.
Closing: ARKK Position... for a 56.93 debit.
Comments: Closing out the entirety of my ARKK position here, on which I collected a total of 33.94 in credits. This results in a 22.99 ($2299) realized loss. That's naturally "no bueno," but the buying power is better utilized elsewhere in something that is not so extremely broken or -- at the very least -- in a fresh, unbroken setup in the underlying.
Closing: IWM April 8th 194C/201C Short Stranglefor an 18.11 debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 19.75 in credits with this little fella, which started out as a 201 short straddle that I inverted defensively. (See Post Below). Closing out here for a 1.64 ($164) profit.
Closing: IWM April 1st 194C/200P Short Strangle... for a 16.57 debit.
Comments: This started out as a 200 short straddle that I inverted slightly. Collected a total of 19.32 in credits, so closing out here results in a realized gain of 19.32 - 16.67 = 2.65 ($265). Still have the April 8th 194C/201P inverted on (which also started out as a 201 short straddle).
Rolling (IRA): IWM March 25th 178 Short Put to April 29th 170... for a 1.27 credit.
Comments: The March 25th 178's at >50% max, so rolling out to the <16 delta strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 4.36 (See Post Below) plus 1.27 or 5.63 relative to what the April 29th 170 is paying (currently 1.96), so I've realized gains of about 3.67 ($367) so far.
IWM 175/170 Put Credit Spread - Apr 8thPut Credit Spread
Strikes: 175 short / 170 long
Credit received: 0.54
Max loss = 5.00-0.54 = $446
It has been a while since I posted and this is for a couple of reasons.
1. A short vacation away to kick back and relax
2. The markets have been chopping all over my currently open positions and taking longer to turn and burn trades, meaning there just was not much to do as I was very close to my % capital deployed limits.
This trade is simple simple. I closed out my IWM 185/180 yesterday with the pop, so today I put on a 175/170 even further out. I could sit here and tell you how I think the market is going to go roaring back up due to X Y and Z, but the reality is I have no clue. I am simply identifying areas outside of the current range, that provide a decent margin of error and decent compensation. Then I manage the trade as needed and make sure to follow my rules of -200% SL and 50% TP.
I think this needs to be said because as traders we are looked to for the answers but often we are just being mechanical. Would I like to be in a trend here where I could feel very confident about putting on a bullish trade? For sure, but that is not the case. And if we want to make money, we need to be in the game. This doesn't mean that I am not going to scale back position size and tighten other parameters such as delta etc.
What do you do in times of uncertainty, I am curious to hear - leave it below!
IWMOnce you see this h&s, it cannot be unseen. The more traders I see trying to call a bottom in the markets, the more confident I am that this resolves to the downside. Starter position into April 14 $165P's today.
IWM 185/180 March 16 Put Credit SpreadTrade Credit: $0.55 = 11% Return on Margin
Max Loss = 500 - 55 = $445
Strikes - Short 185 / Long 180
This morning I realized that I need to get more capital deployed based off of my trading plan (something I hope everyone has!) As such I went looking for trades, and today is not a bad day to enter trades.
Reasoning is below!
1. Recent red days = Increased IV and increased Put prices (although this is slight reduced due to a large green morning)
2. Still bumping around in the trading range outlined by the white support and resistance lines
3. Todays green move up is above the prior two days candles move, and is the beginning of a confirmation of a possible move to the top of the range. If we are headed there, this trade will hit its take profit much earlier than expiration.
I always try and keep these trades less than 30 DTE for 2 reasons:
1. it makes calculating expected return per month easier
2. Decay really ramps up after <45DTE and this just grows faster and faster. Ideally these trades are closed prior to <21DTE though as this is when other greeks can begin to bite you such as gamma.
Questions. Comments? Put em below!
IWM swing puts between 200-202Here on this daily chart price is at the 20sma again in this sideways consolidation. RSI has not broken above 50 and stochastic looks like it might turn down soon. On the weekly chart price has been waiting for 10ema to catch up and then it may fall again.
201.75-202 is my ideal range to buy puts based on 30min chart. I started a position with price around 200.50 and will add more if target buy zone is reached.
IWMBeautiful setup. Head & shoulders forming, in a downtrend, after a false breakout. Below $188 probably sees the pre-c0vid high of $170.
$IWM HOLD or SELLGiven the current economic situtation, and having broken the last support, this ETF is expected to fall to around 168 USD (where pre-COVID resistance was). Since november 2020 it surepassed with great lenght this price level.
FIB 0.618 seems to act as the new support level for the last couple of weeks.
It's safe(ish?) to assume the downturn is limited to the levels we are in now.
AMEX:IWM
Rolling: IWM April 1st 201 Short Straddle to April 8th... for a 1.16 credit.
Comments: Taking a little profit (1.40/$140) by rolling here. Total credits collected of 16.30 relative to a short straddle price for the April 1st 201 of 15.82.
Rolling (IRA): IWM March 18th 181 Short Put to April 22nd 165... for a .69 credit.
Comments: This isn't quite at 50% max, but only has 11 days to go, is in profit, and is the highest strike I've got hanging out there in IWM. I've collected a total of 3.83 (See Post Below) + the .69 here for a total of 4.52 relative to a current price for the April 22nd 165 of 1.80, so have realized gains of 2.72 ($272) in this puppy so far.
