Russel2000, RTY, IWMThe Small Cap Index has been erratic over the past year. I will assume its movement, as indicated in the attached forecast, with the target of growth until the end of the year up to a value of 270.
IWM trade ideas
Russel2000, Small CapsShort-term forecast for Russel2000, relevant mainly for small caps companies. The index, starting in September 2020, bounced off the support level of 2100 several times, and on December 20 of this year found itself in the superpoint zone, from where it went up strongly yesterday. Growth is expected to target up to 2500, up to the support level of the sloping resistance. Having reached this target, the index will behave like the S&P500, as indicated in the previous forecast - it will begin a correction.
In terms of growth, we fit into Santa Rally - that is, the beginning of January, which is in good agreement with the previous forecast for the S&P500. You can short-term reject patterns in long at small caps, or unload positions that you do not like, since the bulk of the companies that make up this index are unprofitable.
I do not recommend accumulating short positions on this movement, they will probably try to endure it.
Closing (IRA): IWM April 14th 160 Short PUt... for a .13 debit.
Comments: Opened for 1.73, (See Post Below); closing it out here for a 1.60 ($160) profit. Still have April 22nd, April 29th, and May 6th rungs on which I'll either close or roll out as I get to them from a duration standpoint.
Rolling (IRA): IWM April 8th 175 Short Put to May 6th 185... for a 1.69 credit.
Comments: With only .17 left in the April 8th 175, rolling it out to the <16 delta May 6th strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected: 4.08 (See Post Below) plus the credit received here of 1.69, for a total of 5.77 relative to the May 6th 185 short put value of 1.81, so I've realized gains of 3.96 ($396) so far.
Closed: IWM April 14th 175/217 Short Strangle... for a 1.84 debit.
Comments: Filled for a 3.68 credit. (See Post Below). Closed out here via a good-until-cancelled order to take profit at 50% max. 1.84 ($184) profit.
NEXT LEG DOWN SET IWM The chart posted is one of the most important charts as it s decline was a perfect A=C IN A ABC TO .382 I have a panic cycle to start and be in full force on march 25th and the bottom for this year in the bear market is due april 7/10 date I have moved out of ALL LONGS ACROSS THE INDEXES AND I am now 100 % short sp 4511 and qqq at 354.6
$IWM | WEEKLY WATCHLIST$IWM
Relative strength in small caps here. Broke above downtrend from ATH, looking for continuation.
📈$209.15 | $215, $220, $226
📉$204 | $200, $195, $190
US Small Caps ($IWM) Small caps looks a bit tired, just hit trend resistance from 2001, and has been on down trend since.
Monthly RSI is also showing that we have turned down, which means increased likelihood that we are revisiting 100WMA (golden MA) or lower soon.
Monthly RSI might hold at this level and reach to upper trendline again, but R:R ratio is a bit... meh.
HOWEVER, relative to SPY small caps still present good value.
Small Caps ($IWM) to outperform S&P 500?Risk-reward of relative performance points to small caps outperforming large caps in the next few years.
HOWEVER, in recessionary bear markets... small caps tend to underperform, so be aware!
Closing (IRA): IWM April 1st 175 Short Put... for a .27 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 1.98 credit. (See Post Below). Out here for a net profit of 1.71 ($171). Still have April 8th, 14th, 22nd, and 29th rungs on.
Closed (IRA): IWM March 31st 178 Short Put... for a .29 debit.
Comments: I'd ordinarily roll this out to the weekly, but we don't have a May 6th expiry yet. I've already got a rung on in the April 29th expiry, so am just taking profit here. Total credits collected of 2.67. (See Post Below). Closing hour here results in a profit of 2.38 ($238).
IWMH&S still in tact. Want to see YTD VWAP (purple line) hold as resistance here. Otherwise h&s is invalid.
IWM sella very strong green candel breaking the level of resistance with loot of force indicates the end of the uptrend and a fall under the level
IWM Call credit spread204/205 Call credit
10 DTE
0.20, 2 mins before the close.
Tried for 0.22 and 0.21, couldn't get it.
Testing descending VWAP.
Not testing VWAP on M2K or RTY yet 1980
IWMDaily Report
IWM price action is looking weak. It had a 2% down day with increase in volume. So it looks like the bears are motivated. The RSI just broke out to the downside so most likely the price will break down and head to 178 support level.
IWMBearish engulfing candle today within the head & shoulders. Looking for lower the next couple weeks as long as it's below YTD VWAP, 50 sma, etc.
Opening: IWM April 22nd 175/217 Short Strangle... for a 3.68 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (73/35). Selling 15 delta on both sides. 3.68 credit on buying power effect of 21.09 (on margin). 17.4% ROC at max; 8.7% at 50% max.
Closing: ARKK Position... for a 56.93 debit.
Comments: Closing out the entirety of my ARKK position here, on which I collected a total of 33.94 in credits. This results in a 22.99 ($2299) realized loss. That's naturally "no bueno," but the buying power is better utilized elsewhere in something that is not so extremely broken or -- at the very least -- in a fresh, unbroken setup in the underlying.
Closing: IWM April 8th 194C/201C Short Stranglefor an 18.11 debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 19.75 in credits with this little fella, which started out as a 201 short straddle that I inverted defensively. (See Post Below). Closing out here for a 1.64 ($164) profit.
Closing: IWM April 1st 194C/200P Short Strangle... for a 16.57 debit.
Comments: This started out as a 200 short straddle that I inverted slightly. Collected a total of 19.32 in credits, so closing out here results in a realized gain of 19.32 - 16.67 = 2.65 ($265). Still have the April 8th 194C/201P inverted on (which also started out as a 201 short straddle).
Rolling (IRA): IWM March 25th 178 Short Put to April 29th 170... for a 1.27 credit.
Comments: The March 25th 178's at >50% max, so rolling out to the <16 delta strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 4.36 (See Post Below) plus 1.27 or 5.63 relative to what the April 29th 170 is paying (currently 1.96), so I've realized gains of about 3.67 ($367) so far.
IWM 175/170 Put Credit Spread - Apr 8thPut Credit Spread
Strikes: 175 short / 170 long
Credit received: 0.54
Max loss = 5.00-0.54 = $446
It has been a while since I posted and this is for a couple of reasons.
1. A short vacation away to kick back and relax
2. The markets have been chopping all over my currently open positions and taking longer to turn and burn trades, meaning there just was not much to do as I was very close to my % capital deployed limits.
This trade is simple simple. I closed out my IWM 185/180 yesterday with the pop, so today I put on a 175/170 even further out. I could sit here and tell you how I think the market is going to go roaring back up due to X Y and Z, but the reality is I have no clue. I am simply identifying areas outside of the current range, that provide a decent margin of error and decent compensation. Then I manage the trade as needed and make sure to follow my rules of -200% SL and 50% TP.
I think this needs to be said because as traders we are looked to for the answers but often we are just being mechanical. Would I like to be in a trend here where I could feel very confident about putting on a bullish trade? For sure, but that is not the case. And if we want to make money, we need to be in the game. This doesn't mean that I am not going to scale back position size and tighten other parameters such as delta etc.
What do you do in times of uncertainty, I am curious to hear - leave it below!
