IWMRate sensitive IWM is preparing for a breakout.... I don't see the possibility of a downside with no catalyst.
IWM trade ideas
Opening (IRA): IWM Oct 18th 192/214/214/236 Iron Fly... for an 11.61 credit.
Comments: Highest IV of broad market ETF's at 27.6%. More small stuff (relatively speaking) while I twiddle my thumbs waiting on other October setups ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: 10.39
Max Profit: 11.61
ROC at Max: 111.74%
25% Max: 2.90
ROC at 25% Max: 24.98%
Will generally look to take profit at 25% max.
What if I gave you all these stats? How would you trade it?I ran a bunch of stats on a signal generator that I have. These signals are generated using an impulse reversion logic that I created. I'm trying to figure out how best to make a winning strategy with options. I believe I have such a strategy, but I'm not an option trading expert so that I would like your thoughts and opinions. Based on my math, it requires two option contracts at any given time, and IWM has a pretty sweet profitability of about $1.20-$1.70 per signal.
A signal has an entry price. A certain distance from that will be the TP price, and below the entry, with a certain distance, would be the SL price.
Once Entry triggers, SL is hit 73.62% of the time
If not TP is hit 26.38% of the time
TP is hit within a day 98.53% of the time
SL is hit within a day 99.65% of the time
Often, SL is hit within 3.3hrs 97.16% of the time
After SL, TP is hit 88.90% of the time
Within 3 days, previous SL trades hit TP 87.24% of the time
After SL price can move another $1+ from the SL level 52.73% of the time
The average TP distance is $1.18 from Entry
The average SL distance is $0.40 from Entry
How would you trade options with such stats?
$TRIN suggesting positive breadth as market bounces hereMarket might be finding support here short term as TRIN readings are encouraging in the short term.
$IWM - Love the setupAMEX:IWM I love this setup. We are looking at a cup and handle ☕️ with a measured move to the $270 area.
Despite what market commentators say about a 50 basis point cut in Sept spooking the market, I think it is the opposite; I believe it will give a face ripper for small caps.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
Russell/SPX Divergence Indicating a Market Cycle TopThe stock market continues to make new highs and is finishing the final touches in this topping process. The problem is the Russell is failing to make new highs. We can see before every stock market crash was accompanied with the SPX/NDX/DJI making new highs while the Russell makes a lower high. This occurred during 2008, 2022, and it could be happening right as we speak. The Russell failing to make new highs suggest that the topping process is underway and we will be getting a powerful stock market crash.
$IWM Trading range for the day. 9.6.24Absolutely HUGE range here in IWM. 207-217 is the implied move on the day and a dollar wider on Mondays contract.
And look at that 50DMA/1hr 200MA block. My opinion is that we get pushed into that gap underneath - that island bottom gap that we made just shortly after that big drop last month.
Wild first week. I don’t know how I’m going to play it until after the market opens but let’s gooooo…
IWM Short 210 below support breakdown
207/204.50/202 /197 can test easily
market looks weak so try to short strong one
IWMTheory is we have another leg higher to IWM here before we submit to the C wave on the very HTF cycle wave 4. I suspect this will be an expanding flat and wave B will hit close to $260-$300 before wave C runs all the wave back down to $110 finishing the 4th. Then we start the HTF wave 5 to $450-$600 per share
IWM Short, then LongI want to short AMEX:IWM on a retest of 216.62 (orange circle) after it fills the hidden bull gap from 213.60 - 215. My final take profit will be at about 209 - 209.50 area, which is the equilibrium of the current uptrend and a previous swing high spot.
I will be looking for longs at this general 209 area back up to 216.62.
The current uptrend is very much overextended in my opinion, with the 8/1 signal bar showing wide scale distribution.
IWM Short: Updated EW countsBased on my EW, I am betting that the vertical move up is a wave 2 and we should be going down from here on a wave 3.
There is also a Fibonacci retracement level that minor wave 2 hit (and slight exceeded) and got rejected.
Opening (IRA): IWM August 30th 193 Monied Covered Call... for a 191.21 debit.
Comments: I'm not quite ready to move out to the September monthly due to its duration, so doing a little something different here to attempt to milk a smidge more out of August. After having taken off my longer-dated position in profit, re-upping in 45 DTE with the short call at about the exact same delta it was at previously (around the -88).
This doesn't result in really awesome ROC metrics, but I have already grabbed the June divvy and realized gains in the August cycle, so am just looking for a little more somethin' somethin' without taking on a ton of additional risk before moving out to Sept. As usual, I'll look to take profit at 50% max; roll out for duration on side test.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 191.21
Max Profit: 1.79
ROC at Max: .936%
50% Max: .90
ROC at 50% Max: .468%
Russel IWM TNA - Bullish move comingAs with major indices, expect steep rally in smallcaps. These are probably going to outperform going forward.
This is not a financial advise. Please follow proper risk management.
If you like this idea, kindly like, share and ssubscribe.
IWM - Breakout AMEX:IWM is in the bull zone of the Bollinger Bands, and Stupid Willy just plunked down his life savings.
Weekly resistance hitIWM had an impressive week as the bulls took charge again from the bottom of a trading channel.
Now IWM is back near the top of the weekly channel, facing resistance following a weekly false break.
If you are looking for potential bearish entries, this is an interesting zone to watch
IWM: Prepare to ShortFrom this chart, I have marked 8th Nov 2021 as the peak and end of the bull market for Russell 2000. This is despite the fact that S&P500 is still making new highs, a result of financial engineering.
IWM is now more representative of the actual health of the US economy. From this chart, I've marked the wave 1 impulse wave down, a triple combination (3x A-B-C = WXY) as wave 2, and the most recent sell off as minor wave 1. We are now in a minor wave 2 up. Personally, I will use the next Fibonacci retracement level (0.382) as my short entry point.
$IWM Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024AMEX:IWM Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024
Today’s implied move is between 200 and 209, and tomorrow it’s 198-210
A lot of really important levels to know if today’s trading range. We have the 1D 200MA, the 35EMA on the weekly timeframe, the 4hr 200MA and the 50Day MA all running through today’s range.
We also have a bear gap at the top of the implied move on the da, up near the 50DMA
Hopefully you’ve been following along on the videos and you know exactly what these levels are. I just didn’t have time to make a video for today but hopefully this is enough.
GL y’all.
Russell 2000 fractal points to 40-60% dropRussell 2000 currently creating fractal.
Points to possible 40-60% downside.
This fractal creates:
- A top
- A bear flag
- A failed break to the upside
- A large break down after the failed break up
This fractal occurred in 2008 and 2020.
Both instances of recessionary bear markets.
This could play out similarly if we get a recession.
Price target is around 95 -100.
More Downside for IWM or Is This a Rescue Operation?Let's kick off Tuesday morning by breaking down IWM:
First and foremost, on a daily chart, it appears to be in a freefall and this slight recovery is just a bounce along the ride down, complimented by the rising wedge pattern on a 1H chart.
I'd like to sit back and say, "well the markets recovering, so IWM should too". However, experience has taught me to trust the chart and not my heart. Keep in mind, the bottom also appears to be near so be cautious.
Other thoughts. We did see this ETF take a rip roar towards the upside about 3-4 weeks ago while the rest of the market trailed, so that's no real indication of what could happen in the upcoming days.
Conclusion: I'd be looking to day trade this, leaning towards a short-term slide towards the gutter in the region of 197. The sticky note region at the top, around 206.75 - 211.12 would indicate overhead resistance and a good place to lay groundwork.
Anyway, I'll be paper trading this out of curiosity. Market is volatile this week.
Trade accordingly.
$IWM Trading Range for Tuesday August 6thAMEX:IWM Trading Range for Tuesday August 6th
3.01% expected move for tomorrow. ooooh eeee...
IWM Time To Go Long Until The End Of YearIts Here get into small caps before they actually explode to the upside you all have been notified to get in early I've been in since $212ish
Crypto and Alts: time to be bullish . . IWM vs SPX will confirm?more confirmation of liquidity cycles repeating.. chart of IWM vs SPX ...
U can see that a trendline usually starts right when BTC is leaving its lows
And breaks during halving year with a RETEST before taking off
ALL OF THIS HAS JUST HAPPENED.
This comes at the same time with several bullish catalyst
- increased liquidity from US FED
- slow down in large cap stocks after giant rally
- upcoming Fed Cuts
the cuts themselves aren't bullish but as people expect this to happen they may front run and begin to position early (aka over the next 6 months)
this creates a risk on environment
This trend has happened in all the prior halving years and BTC especially Altcoins has positive movement into the end of the year.
worth also noting that there is a serious risk off period after this brief bullish .. will keep an eye out if we see euphoria type action into the end of the year.
IWM vs SPX: Bullish Breakout= Risk On..BTC & Crypto Rally Q3+Q4?more confirmation of liquidity cycles repeating.. chart of IWM vs SPX ...
U can see that a trendline usually starts right when BTC is leaving its lows
And breaks during halving year with a RETEST before taking off
ALL OF THIS HAS JUST HAPPENED.
This comes at the same time with several bullish catalyst
- increased liquidity from US FED
- slow down in large cap stocks after giant rally
- upcoming Fed Cuts
the cuts themselves aren't bullish but as people expect this to happen they may front run and begin to position early (aka over the next 6 months)
this creates a risk on environment
This trend has happened in all the prior halving years and BTC especially Altcoins has positive movement into the end of the year.
worth also noting that there is a serious risk off period after this brief bullish .. will keep an eye out if we see euphoria type action into the end of the year.
