𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $IWM Daily. WARNINGConcerning chart. Looks like a backtest today ... as long as below 209 there's substantial risk to the downside
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IWM trade ideas
Russel Wyckoff distribution phase DIWM looks like it is about spend the next week or so completing Phase D of Wyckoff distribution, a test of the resistance overhead seems likely followed by a subsequent fall off into Phase E downtrend, the gap down to 163 seems like a likely PT by all metrics, including Fib .786 retrace between what I would consider the last 2 major pivots.
Opened (IRA): IWM March 4th 185 Short Put... for a 2.50 credit.
Comments: Sold premium right at the close in the expiry nearest 45 days to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps.
Holistically, I've been using IWM for shorter duration trades (~45 days until expiry) and SPY for longer duration ones (since it doesn't pay as well as a function of buying power effect), and then coupling that with a longer-dated short delta hedge or hedges. (See, e.g., Post Below). I'm still net delta long, just not as long as I would be were I to be all short put without some kind of short delta aspect.
iwm short there is so much you can do when monitoring shares. i missed the trendline break. iwm closed and broke support . would look only for short
Time to short the Russell 2000 ETF IWM, and here's why.Here is a chart of the entire IWM ranging behavior over the past like 9-10 months. You can clearly see the resistance and support lines. The top resistance line also coincides with the R1 monthly pivot resistance line.
Below is the OBV with the same ranging behavior over the same time span. Obviously, volume should confirm price.....and up until recently it more or less has, also ranging up and down between the support and resistance lines drawn on the OBV indicator itself.
My point is...... look at the far right, where the purple rectangle boxes are. See the problem? OBV has already plowed downward well out of the rectangle and below the support line. Notice how it also never confirmed the prior IWM break out of the range. It was a leading indicator there that the break out would fail.....and it did.
Now it's clearly indicating that IWM is going to blow right through that rigid support line it's bounced off of many times before. My money is betting on that it's right.
$IWM Key Levels & Analysis & Targets $IWM Key Levels & Analysis & Targets
Well, here comes that 201
Death cross on the daily
Lot’s of resistance to the up side
GL, y’all…
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I usually trade both ways, but lately I’ve been focusing more to the downside because of how high the market is. It makes more sense to sell puts right now, and I’m usually at Target 2 or 3.
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time)
Have fun, y’all!!
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$IWMBox is breaking out on top.
But stochastic false bar is still on top.
I will wait for a bar to come below stochastic which will confirm stage 4 decline . Target 160-170 levels
IWMDaily Chart Report
IWM finally breaking to the downside. The first price target is at 198 support level. It think it could move even lower. According to the TA a full measured move to the downside is at 168 support level.
IWM to 205 then 169If IWM fails to hold 205 then we are going to see a quick downside move to 169. There doesn't appear to be many buyers or sellers between the two VPVR valleys (on the right).
Will rising rates cause this range to finally break down ?!This is an update to my previous chart, linked here.
IWM Double BottomPrice has recently twice bounced off support at around $211 forming a double bottom. This signifies a reversal of the prior downtrend; the new uptrend, thus far, seems to be quite strong. Take most profits at $216.50 where, according to Fibonacci levels, we could see some resistance. If price breaks out above that it may be worth holding a few runners with a trailing stop. I would place a stop loss at $213; this number doesn't have much technical significance but with this particular setup I'm looking for price to shoot straight up in a relatively short period of time and a correction below the 213 level would invalidate this goal.
IWM CHANNEL BOUNCE COMING$IWM here doesn't look that bad for a channel bounce.
It has been stuck in this range for a long time now and once again seems to be on the bottom of that sideways channel.
I like it as a long down here and your stops are close if we break and close under the channel.
IWM | Informative AMEX:IWM
Entry points based on bearish and bullish scenarios.
*Personally I expect bearish price action and my target is 215$, but in case of bullish price actions I defined the entry and exit points based on S/R
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
Opening (IRA): IWM February 25th 193 Short Put... for a 2.09 credit.
Comments: Emulating dollar cost averaging into small caps via a 17 delta short put in the contract nearest 45 days until expiry. Currently, the highest 30-day implied volatility broad market exchange-traded fund on the board with 30-day at 27.0% (although QQQ comes in a close second at 26.5%).
Doesn't look good for Small CapsIt's the first time they're below they're 200 DMA since September 2020. It's been holdings support for a year and looks like trend broke, but this smells like a trap.
Buying puts at price against 20sma, very low riskHigh price near open was right at 20sma. So puts bought near 219 will have close stops. Suggestions are 219.21, 219.39, and 219.51. I am using 21Jan and 18Feb expiry dates.
IWM SHORTShort AMEX:IWM
Very likely we see a crash this week to the 200 level.
I am playing off of the current market conditions and rising ECONOMICS:US10Y yield, etc..
IWM Put Credit Spread (see related) into a ICIWM continued to fall today, so I decided to look on the call side to turn this into an Iron Condor.
Why?
1. Condors do not increase margin over a spread
2. IWM has been range bound
3. Large cushion past 2 resistance points
4. Additional Credit recieved
Opened Feb 2nd 236/238 IC for a 0.22 cent credit.
$IWM Potential Head and Shoulders Bottom?$IWM potential head and shoulder bottom early in 2022?
Holding $211 (right shoulder low) on a closing basis is critical for this patten to hold.
Open mind to all possibilities.
IWM - is stochastic warning of a major support break?IWM has been rangebound for almost one year now. Price was around highs of 170 before the "Covid drop." The 212 area is strong support, but it may break soon. Since price broke out of the upper resistance and fell right back into range, a break of support may soon follow.
Let me explain how I use stochastic %K warning signals, which usually lead price movement. My custom setting is 10-period %K and 7-period %D (I do not use D-slow), which I find to work well for my day and short swing trades. When %K (blue line) drops from above 80 to under 20 in 2-3 candles, it warns of more selling, and the corresponding price candles are usually innocuous. Usually I look for price to bounce first and then make a significant drop, as happened at the end of October (white oval). %K gave a warning signal and was followed by a quick reaction bounce before a larger selloff. Sometimes, as is happening now, %K will give a warning and it is followed by lower RSI and continued selling. This signal does not work 100% of the time, but I use it regularly with high success to enter long option trades. Also, the same is true in the upwards direction; a sharp rise in %K from under 20 to over 80 signals a stock will soon make a significant move up.
On 6 Jan I bought two put positions when IWM was 218-219: 21Jan 215 strike and 18Feb 210 strike. With markets dropping sharply right now, wait for a good entry. IWM should retest 212 and if it bounces up again instead of breaking support then I have plenty of time to exit Feb puts without a big loss.
$IWM LevelsBased off close on 01/07
Levels still valid
Breakout zones act as weak zones of supp/resis
Breakout zones:
$216.44
$215.52
Bull PTs:
$217.74
$218.87(pit stop)
$219.9
$221.18(pit stop)
$221.91
Bear PTs:
$214.87
$214.41
$213.41
$212.15
$211.19
Rolling (IRA): IWM January 21st 200 Short Put to February 194... for a 1.18 credit.
Comments: More IRA housekeeping. Here, rolling for duration for a realized gain and to the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. I've collected 2.35 (See Post Below) + 1.18 or 3.53 so far.
