IWM$IWM bulls are exhausted. 50% retracement is due but I do not anticipate that retracement until 2022. Short-term is bearish with a PT of $216 to close November out.
IWM trade ideas
IWM will at least fill this GAPMaybe one more touch on the 200EMA/2200 psych horizontal level to get it going
About That Small Cap "Breakout"Similar to #ES_F, IWM had signs of a false breakout while everyone was clamoring for a Santa rally. Though we did breakout after an accumulation period, one that lasted almost the entirety of 2021, we had trend line resistance from the 2020 lows directly overhead. If we lose the 2021 accumulation zone, selling could accelerate with velocity.
Short IWM - The "Midterm" variant is upon us.Alarming levels on the Cashflow and CICO (Cash in/cash out) indicators (Free open source indicators on Tradingview.com). Similar levels to the first Covid levels. Shield yourself with long Puts. Also, turn off CNN, MSDNC, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNBC; they are shit. That is all, good day!
Rolling: IWM December 23rd 246 Short Call to 234... for a 1.77 credit.
Comments: Rolling down the short call aspect of my December 23rd short strangle to cut net delta/directionality. Collected a total of 6.01 in credits so far. (See Post Below). The resulting position is still net delta long, just not as long as it was.
Rolling: IWM December 17th 242/232 Short Strangle to January 7th... 232/234 Short Strangle for a 4.82 credit.
Comments: With 21 days to go, rolling this out to cut directionality. I've collected a total of 10.43 in credits so far (See Posts Below). Position remains net delta long.
$IWM - still liking a rally out of this zoneNot changing anything here. This has gone deeper then I have liked but I am sticking with the fact that I thinking a banger rally is coming out of value here. Long here with invalidation just below. Trim some profits at the downtrend / flag resistance. DOW and Russ will lead next leg up
that's what SL is for.recently russel broke the ceiling that was holding it for almost a year.
now it would be interesting entering a long during the retest. placing the SL just bellow last low made the 27th of october.
not because it's a safe trade but becasuse of the RR involved, since that the range has been broken, this leaves us with a proyection to the up side equivalent to the range it selve, wich is also the 1.6fib proyection of the recent impulse after the lst corrective phase.
currently the price is sitting on the 50% retracement of the move done until now.
on daily there are clear signs of a correction in act, volume is not as high as during the ceiling break and tho it made almost the sale movement.
on 4htf stochastic is starting to cross to the upside, i find stochastic the best indicator to trade russel's mid high tf, since it's a "range indicator", and in a range is where rus has been for almost a year.
on the 1H ft, there are divergences on stoch and rsi. this doesn't mean that the divergence can't follow forming.
in the end, it's a nice RR trade of 4:1, in'm already booked in at the 50%fib, and if goes to 38% i will think about adding contracts, using the same sl.
take in count that trading is not about having a 80% hit rate, that's impossible, and if some one says he does...well he was probably long during 2020/21. i mean, it doesn't surprise me that people will have had great RR these 2 years, but that shouldn't be taken as reference. the normal hit rate should be around 50% and risk managing like if your life depended on it makes your account grow steadily and constantly.
use the power of a steady compound growth rather than a yolo
and use SL, que pa' eso estàn Ramon
Rolled: IWM December 23rd 258 Short Call* to 246... for an .82 credit.
Comments: Rolled the short call aspect of my December 23rd short strangle to cut net delta in half. I originally opened this for 3.42 (See Post below) with a take profit target at 1.71, so am revising my take profit to 1.71 plus the credit received for the roll of .82 or 2.53.
The net delta of this short strangle (short put + short call) still leans long.
* -- Shown here at the 250 strike in order to fit it on the chart without squeezing.
IWM short @ 233.61.Daily turning up can bounce back some off 50 day ma. Will add when it breaks. Look daily lower highs lower lows. VOL more selling then buying
Weekly heading down but has not broke 68%
$IWM - Moon mission coming up?IWM is almost at my invalidation - still flagging - reversal candle and bullish divergence on %R.. I grabbed longs here today for 12/17, heavy too, but hedged. Thinking we see moon mission next couple days. Will be quick about profits if we get the reversal. Below this invalidation we could be in a 1-2 1-2 nest - meaning still launch likely soon - but could take longer and I will need to cut bait
TOP ALT WAVE COUNT 249 ON DEC15 IWM THERE are 3 wave counts within the IWM VERY BULLISH WE ENDED WAVE 2 ALT is we ended a wave 4 within a diagonal and the 5th wave would end at 249 plus or minus 1.5 pts being a .618 of wave one up from march 2020 low and is wave 1 and 5 being within the 5th this is an area to which I WILL SELL OUT MY NEW 100 % LONG I WILL NOW PLACE A STOP AT 227 CLOSE ONLY . NEXT YEAR THE IWM WILL DECLINE OVER 16% MIN
$IWM - bounce of trendline IWM kissed this trendline around $231 almost perfectly and it was very quick. Will need further follow through but hopefully this bounce begins the follow through for the small cap rally. This last week or so was a bad beat down of companies in that category. One final knock down before the run? GLL
IWM Russell2000 Important Level#Russell2000 $IWM continues to pullback.
The 50 MA is conversing with strong weekly support at $228 (circle on the chart).
If bulls fail to protect that level and get a bounce going, this 9 months rectangle breakout is in big trouble.
$IWM Target 221$IWM Target 221
Lot’s of signs pointing down at the moment, and I have my eyes set on 221
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
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(IWM) Longterm scenario #2(IWM) Longterm scenario #2- This is scenario #2 and the difference is that instead of us on the previous post heading into "Primary 5th wave" we have instead already had the completion of "Primary 1&2" around the (20% retracement zone "Which is the minimum in a Strong Bullish Market") and are heading to the common estimated (1.618 Fibonacci at $433) for "3rd wave primary". Now this is only if we are way too "Impulsive" to concur with our (1st longterm scenario) . The longterm time objective would be of (July 2022-November 2023). As always these are my opinions : ) If any questions you can ask in the comments below : ()
SHORT | IWM | 5% More AMEX:IWM
It looks bearish to me,
Possible Scenario SHORT
Evidence: Price action
TP1: 229$
TP2: 225.5$
TP3: 223$
PUT Options, Strike 223$, 17 Dec 2021
* This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
WAVE 3 OF 5 BLOW OFF IS STARTING IN ALL INDEXES The markets look to be setup for wave 3 of 5 to start . i am going back to a net 100 % long in calls only
IWM: $252 comes over the next 3 Weeks!V recovery to start tomorrow. We took off the first 2 of 3 legs at over 200% each. Loaded back on Thursday for end of December. Oh Yeah we're ready for 252.
IWMIWM coming to the area of support. It is doing a retracement to the golden pocket on the fib. If your looking for a bounce it would be the support zone.
IWM 11/22 fell through the wedge/flag it was forming but more importantly Closed right at support.
Going into Monday we really do not want to see a drop below 232 because that would signal that we're heading back to support #2 at around 229.. Noticable was the increasing volume of selling .
Small caps, Cyclicals , and reopening took a hit last week. It started with a pullback that then increased with news of covid cases on the rise and foreign lock downs. Any news that negatively affects job outlooks will effect IWM first. The Dow Jones is near significant support and the Nasdaq is near significant resistance. we may see some rotation out of tech and back into small caps and and Cyclicals by late Monday or early Tuesday. If we close below 232 monday then we'll be headed back to 229. I'd we bounce at 232 I expect a rally up to that purple resistance i outlined which should be around 236.
IWMLast week was a depressed week for small cap investors with a lot of stock reaching extreme oversold conditions not seen since the subprime crisis. The volume was also very low, which leads me to think that it was a possible tax selling reason. With the small-cap index pulling back to test the support zone previous resistance area, we might start to see next week the first signs of a rebound.
