DOWn jgonesDo you seewhat I see? #mmiq short for upnotctober while Lebanon has a ground invasion by Israel and dollars pumping too,the markets gonna crash pretty simplestructure too
IWM trade ideas
$IWM Tomorrow’s Trading range Oct 1st 2024AMEX:IWM Tomorrow’s Trading range Oct 1st 2024
Alright, y’all… support is at 218 and resistance is at 223, the 35EMA is underneath us and we have an implied move of 1.19%
Awwww yeah… Gl y’all
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersNo video again tonight but here is the trading range.
IWM had a big drop yesterday, outside of the implied move, so watch out for volatility, and it filled both FOMC gaps, the one before FOMC and the one after.
Looks like this moving averages are on deck. Look to the 35EMA as a possible resistance even though we are still above the 30min 200MA which actually makes us neutral.
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation and hopefully videos will resume soon.
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Sept 25
Ok, so I can’t make a video tonight :( My Wifi is down in my neighborhood because they are putting new lines in, and to make matters worse there’s a hurricane coming this way so it won’t likely be fixed until it passes so I can only do as much work as my hotspot will allow
The implied move for tomorrow is between 218 and 224. The 30day average volatility is 217-226 and the implied move on Thursdays contract is between 218 and 225.
We are right at the 30min 35EMA, it is literally right in the middle of out trading range, so keep an eye on that for direction. IWM is the only one trading underneath it’s 35EMA. Below that support is at 219 which is the gap bottom from FOMC.
Lot’s of moving average support underneath the trading range (1hr 200, 30min 200 and the 50DMA)
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation
The Global Liquidity Index is looking very interesting here.The GLI is looking very interesting at these levels. It's currently bouncing around within the Fibonacci retracement levels shown. Stocks and crypto usually perform better during times of increased liquidity for obvious reasons. Now that we are heading into a period where central banks around the world are propping up markets with freshly printed cash, we may see this index set a new high, which will be good for asset prices overall.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
Looking Lower Through 197Looking lower through the wave (A) low of 197 against the high of 228.63 following the completion of a zigzag wave {B}.
FOMC (FED) 50 bps Cut - What's Next???FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds.
Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025.
The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment, inflation, and earnings growth...fresh all-time highs and rips may prove elusive in the near term.
Thanks for watching and enjoy the video!!!
Triple Witching on FridayThis Friday, 9/20/24, is Triple witching. Here's a 4x split chart view of SPY, QQQ, DIA & IWM. With TTCATR indicator support & resistance levels on the 1 day chart.
Triple witching days are known for being volatile and having high volume. On these days, three types of derivative contracts expire simultaneously.
Stock options: Contracts that give the holder the right to buy or sell shares in a company at a specific price and on a specific date.
Stock index futures: Futures contracts on a stock index such as the S&P 500.
Stock index options: Option contracts on equity indexes.
SPY TTCATR VWMA20 levels: 1ATR = 7.34
ATR4 = 582
ATR3 = 575
ATR2 = 569
VWMA20 = 556
-ATR2 = 543
-ATR3 = 537
-ATR4 = 530
SPY 9/20/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 374,184
Call Volume Total 330,226
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.13
Put Open Interest Total 3,233,386
Call Open Interest Total 1,115,457
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.90
QQQ TTCATR VWMA20 levels: 1ATR = 8.75
ATR4 = 500
ATR3 = 492
ATR2 = 485
VWMA20 = 469
-ATR2 = 454
-ATR3 = 446
-ATR4 = 438
QQQ 9/20/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 178,606
Call Volume Total 188,794
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.95
Put Open Interest Total 1,621,234
Call Open Interest Total 1,117,192
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.45
DIA TTCATR VWMA20 levels: 1ATR = 4.89
ATR4 = 429
ATR3 = 425
ATR2 = 420
VWMA20 = 412
-ATR2 = 403
-ATR3 = 398
-ATR4 = 394
DIA 9/20/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 10,663
Call Volume Total 9,142
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.17
Put Open Interest Total 76,617
Call Open Interest Total 60,201
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.27
IWM TTCATR VWMA20 levels: 1ATR = 4.23
ATR4 = 231
ATR3 = 227
ATR2 = 223
VWMA20 = 215
-ATR2 = 207
-ATR3 = 203
-ATR4 = 199
IWM 9/20/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 214,539
Call Volume Total 313,620
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.68
Put Open Interest Total 2,402,288
Call Open Interest Total 1,373,048
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.75
IWMRate sensitive IWM is preparing for a breakout.... I don't see the possibility of a downside with no catalyst.
Opening (IRA): IWM Oct 18th 192/214/214/236 Iron Fly... for an 11.61 credit.
Comments: Highest IV of broad market ETF's at 27.6%. More small stuff (relatively speaking) while I twiddle my thumbs waiting on other October setups ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: 10.39
Max Profit: 11.61
ROC at Max: 111.74%
25% Max: 2.90
ROC at 25% Max: 24.98%
Will generally look to take profit at 25% max.
What if I gave you all these stats? How would you trade it?I ran a bunch of stats on a signal generator that I have. These signals are generated using an impulse reversion logic that I created. I'm trying to figure out how best to make a winning strategy with options. I believe I have such a strategy, but I'm not an option trading expert so that I would like your thoughts and opinions. Based on my math, it requires two option contracts at any given time, and IWM has a pretty sweet profitability of about $1.20-$1.70 per signal.
A signal has an entry price. A certain distance from that will be the TP price, and below the entry, with a certain distance, would be the SL price.
Once Entry triggers, SL is hit 73.62% of the time
If not TP is hit 26.38% of the time
TP is hit within a day 98.53% of the time
SL is hit within a day 99.65% of the time
Often, SL is hit within 3.3hrs 97.16% of the time
After SL, TP is hit 88.90% of the time
Within 3 days, previous SL trades hit TP 87.24% of the time
After SL price can move another $1+ from the SL level 52.73% of the time
The average TP distance is $1.18 from Entry
The average SL distance is $0.40 from Entry
How would you trade options with such stats?
$TRIN suggesting positive breadth as market bounces hereMarket might be finding support here short term as TRIN readings are encouraging in the short term.
$IWM - Love the setupAMEX:IWM I love this setup. We are looking at a cup and handle ☕️ with a measured move to the $270 area.
Despite what market commentators say about a 50 basis point cut in Sept spooking the market, I think it is the opposite; I believe it will give a face ripper for small caps.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
Russell/SPX Divergence Indicating a Market Cycle TopThe stock market continues to make new highs and is finishing the final touches in this topping process. The problem is the Russell is failing to make new highs. We can see before every stock market crash was accompanied with the SPX/NDX/DJI making new highs while the Russell makes a lower high. This occurred during 2008, 2022, and it could be happening right as we speak. The Russell failing to make new highs suggest that the topping process is underway and we will be getting a powerful stock market crash.
$IWM Trading range for the day. 9.6.24Absolutely HUGE range here in IWM. 207-217 is the implied move on the day and a dollar wider on Mondays contract.
And look at that 50DMA/1hr 200MA block. My opinion is that we get pushed into that gap underneath - that island bottom gap that we made just shortly after that big drop last month.
Wild first week. I don’t know how I’m going to play it until after the market opens but let’s gooooo…
IWM Short 210 below support breakdown
207/204.50/202 /197 can test easily
market looks weak so try to short strong one
IWMTheory is we have another leg higher to IWM here before we submit to the C wave on the very HTF cycle wave 4. I suspect this will be an expanding flat and wave B will hit close to $260-$300 before wave C runs all the wave back down to $110 finishing the 4th. Then we start the HTF wave 5 to $450-$600 per share
IWM Short, then LongI want to short AMEX:IWM on a retest of 216.62 (orange circle) after it fills the hidden bull gap from 213.60 - 215. My final take profit will be at about 209 - 209.50 area, which is the equilibrium of the current uptrend and a previous swing high spot.
I will be looking for longs at this general 209 area back up to 216.62.
The current uptrend is very much overextended in my opinion, with the 8/1 signal bar showing wide scale distribution.
IWM Short: Updated EW countsBased on my EW, I am betting that the vertical move up is a wave 2 and we should be going down from here on a wave 3.
There is also a Fibonacci retracement level that minor wave 2 hit (and slight exceeded) and got rejected.
Opening (IRA): IWM August 30th 193 Monied Covered Call... for a 191.21 debit.
Comments: I'm not quite ready to move out to the September monthly due to its duration, so doing a little something different here to attempt to milk a smidge more out of August. After having taken off my longer-dated position in profit, re-upping in 45 DTE with the short call at about the exact same delta it was at previously (around the -88).
This doesn't result in really awesome ROC metrics, but I have already grabbed the June divvy and realized gains in the August cycle, so am just looking for a little more somethin' somethin' without taking on a ton of additional risk before moving out to Sept. As usual, I'll look to take profit at 50% max; roll out for duration on side test.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 191.21
Max Profit: 1.79
ROC at Max: .936%
50% Max: .90
ROC at 50% Max: .468%
Russel IWM TNA - Bullish move comingAs with major indices, expect steep rally in smallcaps. These are probably going to outperform going forward.
This is not a financial advise. Please follow proper risk management.
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IWM - Breakout AMEX:IWM is in the bull zone of the Bollinger Bands, and Stupid Willy just plunked down his life savings.
Weekly resistance hitIWM had an impressive week as the bulls took charge again from the bottom of a trading channel.
Now IWM is back near the top of the weekly channel, facing resistance following a weekly false break.
If you are looking for potential bearish entries, this is an interesting zone to watch
