IWM small caps at a wallReally strong today , At resistance with ATH right around d the corner at 234.50..
I'd be careful here long on some of those mid - small cap names
I'm trading a small short position here with a stop at 235
IWM trade ideas
IWM 10 Month Range @ 14' TL
IWM Russell 2000 ETF, consolidating for 10 months, supported by the 2014 Diagonal Trendline. Entering the Seasonal strong next months.
IWM Close to Breaking OutWe are close to a breakout in the IWM mid/small cap index, which could produce a low risk, high probability trading setup by taking the index long Vs. 223-ish. Nice simple trade here out of consolidation.
$IWM - dip and then ripHey guys
Here is my IWM count. As I have tweeted about all week, I favor IWM tagging lower 220ish area before ripping. It failed the attempted break out and now we are putting in a 3 wave move to the downside. The 100 extension lines up perfectly with the 61.8 retracement, so that is my target zone for the bottom. After that, full steam ahead.
I would be buying this one, with time, on all dips.
Again - I consider this to be the bear count (not going to post some dooms day BS, go find that elsewhere). The bull count to me is that we dont go tag any lower and we already had wave 2 bottom this week. But IWM was weak to finish off trading last week, so that is unlikely IMO
Opening: IWM December 17th 207/242 Short Strangle... for a 3.09 credit.
Comments: Short strangling the highest implied volatility broad market ETF on the board in the expiry nearest 45 days until expiry by selling the 16 delta strikes on both sides. 3.07 on buying power effect of 31.32 on margin; 9.8% ROC as a function of buying power effect. Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless or on side test.
Russell 2000 to Fall on the Window
Technicals:
(1) Looking for the Russell 2000 to Fall on the Window or "fill the gap" (which I do not believe is necessary for a financial instrument to do). A window is just potential support that does not need to be filled.
(2) "golden ratio @ 222.48. to 222.23 (BUY WATCH area)
(3) Pennant/Triangle-looking pattern on a pole suggests that the bullish trend continues. Comment: keep in mind that patterns can break. Any new data point or cataclysmic event can blow this entire pattern away and distort what financial markets are attempting to achieve. If some dire event occurs that effects the price chart; then, there is support far away at 180.
IWM - When I Dip You Dip We DipIWM has been pretty rangebound as of late, and it looks like its going to bounce down to around 219 or so.
Yesterday we saw IWM bounce of the upper Bollinger Band.
The MACD hasn't turned bearish yet, but should confirm a downward trend today.
The Stochastic is showing downward pressure.
This is not to say that IWM is expected to crash, but it may be a good idea to sell some calls.
IWM SELLOFF IS SET UP The market as a whole is now set to roll over rather sharp . Only long now is FB . we are now in the area within the sp 500 to see a rather large top as I have said 4460 to 4617 focus 4607 at each rally the bulls are now in a bull trap . . oil has one last pop and a crash in oil is set with ALL inflated assets
$IWM - getting close!IWM has been in consolidation since the beginning of the year creating a beautiful flag. The longer a stock or index is in a specific range, the stronger the move can be to the upside. There have been many people talking about how the SPY, QQQ, and DIA have all broken out to new ATH but the IWM has lagged. There are many reasons for this including seasonality. Small/mid cap season is typically November through March. The other speculation is that if the IWM does not break out, it means were heading for a recession. Remember markets do not enter a recession just because. There is usually an unforeseen event that drives fear into the markets and causes a sell off.
If this breaks through $232-234 range and into new ATHs, the measured move is close to $300 on the IWM. I will be very pleased with this trade if it "only" reaches $280. Easy and safe play here would be to buy around $233-234 with a $230 stop. You can drop that further if your risk tolerance is higher. $275 would be a good place since there could easily be a retest of the $232 breakout and I could see it reaching $230 to wipe out stops before resuming higher. 1-3% downside risk with 20% (roughly) upside potential over next few months.
Good luck and as always this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is intended for information purposes only.
IWMIWM is in a rising channel. A break above 229.84 can easily take the price to top of the channel within day or two.
Closing (IRA): IWM November 12th 197 Short Put... for a .20 debit.
Comments: In for 2.13 (See Post Below); out for .20 here. 1.93 ($193) profit.
Closing (IRA): IWM November 5th 203 Short Put... for a .15 debit.
Comments: Opened for a 1.93 credit (See Post Below); closing here for .15; 1.78 ($178) profit.
Closing (IRA): IWM October 29th 202 Short Put... for a .13 debit.
Comments: Plain Jane profit-taking here. I would ordinarily roll this out, but implied volatility has crushed in dramatically here to 21.6% from where it was at over 25%. Collected a total of 5.18 in credits with rolls (See Post Below); closing out here puts the finishing touches on a realized gain of 5.18 - .13 or 5.05 ($505).
IWM Big channel - Resolution up? IWM in a huge accumulation channel and will most likely lead the market higher in the coming few months. Small caps season is coming. Enjoy it.
10/18 IWM(1) i expected a breakout and re-test before dip last week
(2) things are going as expected
(3) wait for a re-test, good to go
IWM short 228.00 Look daily heading up stoch and above all ma. Vol in buying low more selling than buying. Look Friday daily candle bad.
Weekly side ways has not crossed up thru.
Short 228 to 215. 6% profit
Still short very small shares
$IWM -MA's and vol shelf lookCheck out the gap off of the 8/21 ema and 50 ma cross, tied in with above the volume shelf POC. UGLY UGLY UGLY candle Friday with huge rejection off downtrend line. Bulls you need to save this thing at the POC / MA support area. Do so and we could see a big upside move really fast. Failure at that level and we likely go to test the uptrend line.
$IWM - half bear countHere is what I call the half bear count. Full bear count is that wave IV bottom isn't in and we could go sub 210, but I just dont see that. This I think is more plausible. We are still looking for minute wave 2 bottom, and we are in a running flat (wave b can be as high as 123.6% of wave A). Now our wave C bottom (which is wave 2 bottom) will be between 61.8 - 100% of A (somewhere between 217 - 221). Note: invalidation for this count would be the 100 extension at that 217. If we break that this count is not valid
Note: IWM is one of the hardest out there to count right now. Sideways is terrible and it has been for a year. When this thing does breakout - whether it is up or down - it is going to be a huge move. Bigger the base - bigger the move
$IWM bull countI really dont like what I saw on Friday, but this is our bull count. A series of 1-2's that should find support at the pivot AVWAP and POC. From there we go RIPPY mode and break the downtrend resistance and finally see ATH's. I really hope that this is what we are seeing, but like I said, I really didn't like Friday's action. It may have just been OpEx manipulation though to kill calls, who knows. We should find out early next week, probably by Tuesday or Weds
IWM headed back to 2201.Dark cloud cover
2. Strong rejected rejection from 227/ Trendline
3. High selling volume
Ev's and clean energy may take a hit this week
