10/18 IWM(1) i expected a breakout and re-test before dip last week
(2) things are going as expected
(3) wait for a re-test, good to go
IWM trade ideas
IWM short 228.00 Look daily heading up stoch and above all ma. Vol in buying low more selling than buying. Look Friday daily candle bad.
Weekly side ways has not crossed up thru.
Short 228 to 215. 6% profit
Still short very small shares
$IWM -MA's and vol shelf lookCheck out the gap off of the 8/21 ema and 50 ma cross, tied in with above the volume shelf POC. UGLY UGLY UGLY candle Friday with huge rejection off downtrend line. Bulls you need to save this thing at the POC / MA support area. Do so and we could see a big upside move really fast. Failure at that level and we likely go to test the uptrend line.
$IWM - half bear countHere is what I call the half bear count. Full bear count is that wave IV bottom isn't in and we could go sub 210, but I just dont see that. This I think is more plausible. We are still looking for minute wave 2 bottom, and we are in a running flat (wave b can be as high as 123.6% of wave A). Now our wave C bottom (which is wave 2 bottom) will be between 61.8 - 100% of A (somewhere between 217 - 221). Note: invalidation for this count would be the 100 extension at that 217. If we break that this count is not valid
Note: IWM is one of the hardest out there to count right now. Sideways is terrible and it has been for a year. When this thing does breakout - whether it is up or down - it is going to be a huge move. Bigger the base - bigger the move
$IWM bull countI really dont like what I saw on Friday, but this is our bull count. A series of 1-2's that should find support at the pivot AVWAP and POC. From there we go RIPPY mode and break the downtrend resistance and finally see ATH's. I really hope that this is what we are seeing, but like I said, I really didn't like Friday's action. It may have just been OpEx manipulation though to kill calls, who knows. We should find out early next week, probably by Tuesday or Weds
IWM headed back to 2201.Dark cloud cover
2. Strong rejected rejection from 227/ Trendline
3. High selling volume
Ev's and clean energy may take a hit this week
Will the small caps breakout from their yearly channel?The $IWM has been stuck in a sideways channel for the past year. With inflation fears and a rotation out of big tech, see if this sector can finally lead the market as it has done in the past. A move above 227 in the coming sessions opens the possibility for a massive breakout above 234. Remember that the bigger the base the bigger the move. The measured move if accomplished would take the $IWM above 255
Closed (Small Account): IWM November 19th 198/204/246/249 IC*... for a .54 debit.
Comments: In for 1.08 (See Post Below), out for .54 here via a good until cancelled order to take profit at 50% max.
* -- Iron condor. This was actually an iron condor variation -- a "double double," the setup for which was explained in the original post.
Weekly Bull FlagWhen in doubt, zoom out. About as basic as it gets. measured move of $63 to $290 next year.
$IWM - mini breakout before hopefully bigger breakout this winteIWM premarket is looking very nice. Above $225 and the $230-232c come into play. Will need to watch the lower interval charts to see what happens but I think we are moving in the right direction for a winter rally. Above $232 and then above new ATH ($233.64ish) and we are off to the races. Many people are claiming that the IWM should be at half value or zero. That doesnt make sense since many of the companies in the IWM or Russell 3000 have already dropped 50-80% since last March/April. Will need to watch today and the next few weeks for confirmation and before going big into this trade. GLL!
Watching Small Caps IWM - The Perfect ChartThe Russell 2000 $IWM has my attention.
Small caps, small towns, mostly domestic, with the main concentration being Healthcare, Industrials, and Financials.
Its top 10 holdings are:
AMC
OVV
NTLA
LSCC
TTEK
ASAN
CROX
SGMS
BJ
APPS
I am not thrilled that AMC is the largest holder. I get it and see why movie theatre are mostly domestic and fit the small cap category, with its current market cap.
Even with that being said, the chart is textbook. It could break either direction. It is on my radar! Stay tuned.
IWM short 228.00 UpdateDaily wanting roll over more selling buying cannot break out. Under 25 50 100 breaks 200 she will drop. Nice lower highs.
Weekly still heading down nice down trend.
$IWM - BUY THE DIPS w/ timeI AM STILL BULLISH ON IWM (intermediate term). But next couple weeks could get dicey. Right now it looks like we likely will break the low set on 10/6 (i hope not, 2 bottom could already be in). But if 2 bottom isn't in, then I think we could see a deep 2 right around 215.
Either way I am of the opinion of BUY ALL DIPS ON IWM. I certainly will be. Next market leader right here once the smoke clears. This and DOW
$IWM Volatility Expansion Right Around the CornerRussell 2000 $IWM volatility expansion is just right around the corner.
Make sure you are not on the wrong side of that when it snaps. Tons of pent-up energy in that.
These waves can't get any tighter (Green line on chart)
IWM - NO MANS LANDHuge range over the last 6 months. Is it a sign of reckoning or will we have one big finale to this bull market with IWM leading?
$IWM - a look at MA's and V ShelfIWM is sitting on top of the 8/21 emas, 50 sma, and POC. If the market bottom is in this thing could have rocket boosters engaged before we know it. (notice %R divergence as well)
The bigger the base - the stronger the launch. Whether this breaks up or down, it is going to be a very violent move. Hopefully we are on the right side of it!
$IWM - wave countRight now this is the hardest one to count. I am only going to put this count out for now, as the bearish ALT to me would be that our wave 4 bottom is not in, and this thing could get flushed to 205. I just don't know at this point if that is likely and I am favoring this to be our leader going into EOY, so this is the only count I am going to post.
My wave count on IWM - I see us having put in our minute wave 2 bottom, and now we are going down for another 2 which could take us as low as 217 on the uptrend line. From there we will be in a 3 of 3 and I see us getting launched out of this ~year long sideways action well into the 230+ range.
Note: if we are still in a bullish structure but minute wave 2 bottom is not in then we could see as low as 214.12 . IF THAT RED LINE BREAKS THIS COUNT IS INVALIDATED
Closing (IRA): IWM October 22nd 205 Short Put... for a .42 debit.
Comments: Rolled this a few times, collecting a total of 4.88 in credits. (See Post Below). Closing it here results in a realized gain to date of 4.88 - .42 = 4.46 ($446).
I opened up a new one today in the November 19th expiry at the 204 strike, so could have also rolled from October 22nd to November 19th for a credit to do the same thing functionally (close the October 22nd/simultaneously open the November 19th).
Opening (IRA): IWM November 19th 204 Short Put... for a 1.87 credit.
Comments: My weekly 16 delta short put in the broad market exchange-traded fund that has the highest 30-day in the contract nearest 45 days until expiry.
IWM Consolidation TA TrickSee the length of the consolidation. When it breaks to the upside or downside it will go the length of the consolidation. I lean down.
IWM short 228.00 Daily stoch heading down lower highs under 50 day ma and 100 day ma Nice selling vol. Holding 200 day so far will see
Weekly heading south Staying short 208 coming.
$IWM ..consolidating still still consolidating..it has allowed 200 SMA to catchup to the price .. looking healthy .. could have a legit shot at breaking above the critical level . it lost in the Feb-March rout !
IWM is ready guys small cap is moving up next month, and it’s already breaking the trend-line with H-S bounce!
