IWM testing demand zoneResistance at $204, downside areas for a bounce $198 - $197 if we fail to bounce at the demand zone.
IWM trade ideas
IWM - Russell 2000 - SHORT (Wyckoff Re-Distribution)IWM looks to be reaching the UTAD stage of a Wyckoff Re-distribution schematic.
Lowering volume in the lead up to UTAD provides confluence to the idea. Expecting price to return to linear regression trend line around 120. Price could extend further, but I expect we are nearing the top of this rally and a sharp correction in 2024.
Take profit level of 120 coincides with a fibo extension of 1.618, so further confluence there.
Markets are overinflated and this move would revert price back to the long term mean.
IWM: A $240 Target in 2024. Here's Why It's Doable.Flip on financial TV and you will likely hear a plethora of sellside strategists and buyside portfolio managers voice optimism about small-cap US stocks. Consider that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was easily in negative territory on the year back in October. Fast forward just two months and the small-cap ETF is up close to 20% total return in 2023. The quick switch has come about amid the group’s fastest move from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in its history. IWM is now poised to print its third-best two-month rally since its inception more than 20 years ago.
Is there more room to run? I think so. A breakout above the $200 mark, particularly on a weekly, monthly, and yes, even a yearly closing basis, is significant. Recall that IWM found support in the low $160s on a few occasions in the last year and a half after printing an all-time high above $240 in November 2021. Sellers flexed their muscles three separate times in 2022 and 2023 at the $200 mark. This $40 zone appears to be breaking in the bulls’ favor. That suggests a measured move upside target to $240 – close to the all-time high on IWM.
I see some near-term resistance in the $210 to $215 area – the range lows from 2021. Indeed, there is likely a significant amount of ‘dead bodies’ lingering above $210 that may look to supply the market with shares in order to sell at the breakeven mark. Still, the technicals appear positive despite some near-term overbought readings on IWM. Another cautionary signal is that the January through mid-March stretch has featured some volatility at times for the broad market, so the pace of the advance will likely slow. I remain constructive on small caps looking into 2024, though.
IWM Grinding at ResistanceInverse to the TNA idea I just shared. IWM is currently trying to flip long term resistance to support. Important spot for both bulls and bears, as we see if the small cap rally lives on or if we start to see a reversal here.
$IWM 2023 In ReviewLooking back at 2023, AMEX:IWM shows very clearly the 3 opportunities this year provided on the long side (for my style of trading).
To use the words of @Zeninthemarkets Scott from #IBD
* Green Zone = "Market on the Give"
* Red Zone = "Market on the Take"
Nasdaq Highest Weekly close The markets marched higher here for an 8th consecutive week.
this is the largest rally since 2017!
The Nasdaq closed the week at its highest ever weekly close.
Small caps hitting the wall vs. goldWhile the small caps have provided fuel for a bull run in stocks to close 2023, they look to be running on empty when priced in gold.
Since breaking down in late 2021, the Russell 2000 has previously tested the Ichimoku cloud 3 times, swiftly bouncing downward on each attempt. In tandem with price, momentum has been rejected by a resistance level of 60% on the RSI chart.
Both indicators now are recurring, with momentum flattening at horizontal resistance and a doji reversal candle forming at the top of the Ichimoku cloud. While the Russell may continue to run in nominal terms going into the new year, its real value looks to roll over and continue into a secular downtrend.
IWM Massive reversal! CVNA / UPST / AFRMShort Squeeze stocks finally ended their epic rally!
Could High beta stocks be signaling a turn in the market?
$IWM Breaking Resistance Peek-a-boo ... AMEX:IWM breaking through is $200 Overhead Supply level ... next stop .... ????
IWM TARGET 213./214 .618 WAVE B TOP The chart is the IWM back in late oct I talked about a target at 161.8 and how it must hold as well as the IYT having to hold 209.6 . We held both So are we in the start of a NEW BULL MARKET . I will say No until we break above 216 I see the pattern like that of 1987 in which we had a large abc rally in the dow and sp 500 in fact the wave A up peaked at 50 % and then we dropped to a minor new low and then saw a 5 wave rally in which EVERYONE SAID ALL CLEAR and it peaked at .618 from there we saw the CRASH . I will maintain The market peaked in dec 2021 What would change my view simple break above the fib relationship in 5 waves and then pullback into march in an A B C decline . Lower interest rates Is NOT good for the market it is a sight of under lying weakest see chart of fed pivot
$IWM $145 before $400+?I know everyone is getting excited about IWM as it's rallied a lot over the last couple of months, but I think it'll face some pain in the coming weeks before it really starts to outperform.
I am of the mindset that everything has it's cycle and I do think that going into the next bull market, that QQQ and SPY will underperform relative to IWM.
That said, I think IWM will have a 25% correction before the bull market really begins. However after that happens, I think IWM will go to hit new highs and top around $400 sometime in 2025-2026.
Support = $145
Resistance = ~$400
"A Pure Technical Play" Mean Reversion On The Russell 2000In this idea video I go over a very simple mean reversion technical play using very simple tools such as RSI and support and resistance to identify levels that have high probability of a mean reversion. Here we see a potential trade set up where the Russell 2000 is entering a strong resistance trendline where it has been respected multiple times and based off of the previous information we have we can assume there will be resistance at this level giving the opportunity to place short positions along that zone and place a stop loss above that zone if it does continue to break out higher. Hope you enjoyed and stay tuned for more!!
CME_MINI:RTY1! CME_MINI:M2K1! AMEX:IWM
IWM Range ResistancePrice Action Recap:
IWM has been ranging between 162.68 and 202.01 since April 2021. That's over 2 year of sideways price movement. The question now is, could small caps finally break above this range with the FED looking to begin cutting rates mid to late 2024?
Currently, IWM has gapped up right into the major range resistance and is showing yet another rejection at this range's highs. Today's candle is also creating a possible liquidity sweep of these highs.
With that being said, price still remains in an uptrend. I personally believe IWM breaks above this level, but first I am looking for price to fill the gap below to 193.64 then make a nice retracement down to support at 188.09 - 189.24 then bounce from there in confluence with holding the long term uptrend support that price is currently holding above. If price somehow breaks below this level while also break below the long term uptrend support, that could signal a full on reversal that could possibly lead to price making a move back to the lows of the range.
Current Confluences for short signals:
- RSI & MACD massively Overbought (Waiting for a bearish divergence to confirm pullback)
- Supply Signal on the Jeanius Indicator (Only One Signal. Waiting for a Confluence sell signal)
-Decreasing Volume
- (Waiting for MACD to begin curling to the downside)
Beautiful BreakoutSame song, second verse.
IWM flags are on fire.
Let's see some consolidation again at 200.
Opening (IRA): IWM April 19th 165 Short Put... for a 2.10 credit.
Comments: Starting to erect rungs in the second quarter (April, May, June). QQQ doesn't have an April yet, and I already have a SPY rung on out in that contract, so just doing the small caps here. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
I'll naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a bump in IV, but may have to dabble outside the broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) box to get paid something decent in shorter duration.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 15th 161 Short Put... for a 1.66 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I'll naturally look to add rungs in shorter duration if we get a sell-off/pop in IV.
IWM - capture the next uptrend !!!IWM setting up - might be useful to keep this idea in mind for the next few months - buy right and sit tight!!!
Russel 2000 direction for 2024 in few days!Russell 2000 has reached a critical juncture, with the IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) at a crossroads for an extended period. There are two distinct possibilities, and one of them may materialize soon.
From a bullish perspective, Russell 2000 is forming a prolonged pattern, potentially breaking into a powerful bullish formation known as a high base. A crucial aspect is its consolidation below the BigRed, or the 200-day Moving Average (MA), and a resistance zone that persisted throughout 2023 and part of 2022. If it successfully breaches these three resistance levels, there's a strong likelihood that Russell 2000 will experience a rapid ascent towards the falling upper trend line, approximately around 190, represented by the blue dotted line. Breaking through this resistance could signal the start of an extended bull market for small caps.
On the flip side, if it fails to break through and the resistance proves formidable, the consequences could be dire for IWM and the broader market, with the possibility of no Santa rally or any significant upward movement in 2024.
Analyzing the volume, the lower trading activity during the high base formation suggests a lack of sellers, supporting a bullish outlook. Additionally, neither the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nor the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators are signaling overbought conditions, leaving ample room for a potential bullish run.
In conclusion, given that 30% of Russell 2000 comprises small regional banks, which often drive this ETF, the upcoming PCE data could be a make-or-break situation. Exercise caution when trading small caps, as movements can be swift and in either direction.
IWM: Time to Think Small - 80% hit rate on this seasonal playI am publishing a seasonal opportunity for a ~2 month trade with several small caps. A of the details are listed together on my substack.
open.substack.com
AMEX:IWM has shown a strong rebound from the October lows, breaking out of a descending wedge on November 3rd, retesting on November 9th, and consistently moving upward since. It is currently testing the volume weighted average price anchored to the 2021 high. This is likely to offer some resistance before we see a move higher.
This trend sets the stage for a reliable seasonal pattern where small caps typically outperform larger companies. The most predictable period of outperformance occurs from mid-December to mid-February, ending higher in 24 out of 30 instances (80%) with an average return of 11.9% and a median return of 5.6%. Annually, this translates to an average return exceeding 70% and a median return over 30%.
Examining the past 30 years, we observe the Russell 2000:
Consistently outperforming the Russell 1000 in terms of both average and median returns in nearly all years.
Outperforming the S&P 500 on average in all years and higher average increases in all years, but showing median underperformance in the past decade.
Generally underperforming the Nasdaq across the time series.
I'm expecting to see IWM come back to 175-178 area before making a move higher.
IWM ratio charts revisitedI talk about IWM and SPY in this video and why I think an excellent short opportunity on IWM is coming quite soon. Good luck!
IWM breaking down?A dash for trash has been observed!
Many participants are tryging to buy to and squeeze companies that have been beaten down and fundamentally weak.
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:IWM chart analysis/mapping.
IWM ETF rally off late October lows on market expectations of the end to Fed rate hikes.
Trading scenarios:
Continuation rally #1 = multiple gap fill / 38.2% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = 23.6% Fib / horizontal line (light blue dashed) confluence zone.
Deeper pullback #1 = lower range of parallel channel (green) / 200MA confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = re-test ~163 bottom.
