IYT trade ideas
Transportation ETF - Fib levels coming into playThe Transportation has been on a tear since 2016 but I think it could be a 5th wave so caution is called for. It looks like it may have further to run up but two 1.618 Fib levels are coming into play now. Worth watching.
Planes, Trains, and AutosWhat a long strange trip its been (Grateful Dead). IYT has completed a bullish head and shoulders bottom formation. Note the red arrows point to windows open on IYT ride up. The windows can provide price levels on IYT ride down, windows get closed. Other indicators appear extended a exhale is healthy. Black gold higher levels could provide some head wind as well.
IYT Head and ShouldersIYT, the Transportation Average ETF is forming a 24 week head and shoulders bottom.
I am eyeing the 144.70 area for an entry and wait on the close above this level to ensure above the previous resistance of the neckline.
163.1 is a long term target, but most likely will be relying on my management techniques with this trade the most.
CIRCLE THE WAGONS PART TWO, IYT: $95 PER POUND GROUND CHUCK!The basic premise of Charkes-DOW is the industrials must be confirmed by the transports. The chart above shows the wide divergence of the industrials and the transports. Yes, there has been near term strength in IYT, but the transports are still lagging badly. Since November of 2015 (green and pink regression trend, lower right) ITY has sagged lower overall. The Ichimoku Cloud in the background is for IYT, and, if you look left to right, this is trending LOWER. The near term strength in IYT has been on lackluster volume. The alligator jaws are feeding in an uptrend, BUT, if you were to look on shorter time duration studies this has reversed.
As for my suggestion that we CIRCLE THE WAGONS, let's look at the Fibonacci circles and see if they fit important event dates.
The Fib .500 circle (mid June 2015) warned of an Ichimoku Cloud reversal of the Ki Jen-Sen baseline and the (thick red) conversion line.
Fib 1.272 circle (late August 2015) warned of a SEVERE DROP IN IYT (the Ki Jen-Sen baseline and the (thick red) conversion line TANKED), the IYT alligator fed in the downtrend. Fib 1.618 circle (September of 2015) was coincident with the S&P 500 and IYT bottoming process. This circle is between the two intermediate bottoms.
Fib 2.618 CLEARLY CALLED THE MARKET AND IYT TOP in December of 2015.
Fib 3.618 CLEARLY CALLED THE S&P 500 AND IYT BOTTOMS IN February of 2016.
NOW WE ARE AT FIBONACCI 4.618. DO YOU REALLY THINK THE MARKETS ARE GOING TO ROCKET HIGHER? The evidence suggests a sharp downturn.
Let me put (no pun intended) it this way: Would you pay $95 per pound for ground chuck?
Then why would anyone buy the S&P 500 (or the transports) at a P/E of almost 25 times anticipated earnings?
I have CIRCLED THE WAGONS and anticipate much lower prices. If this happens, I will treat myself to a burger.
I will close with a quote from Spenser Tracy: “There were times my pants were so thin I could sit on a dime and tell if it was heads or tails”
My advice: Trade wisely and don't chase. I hope this has been helpful and informative. May all of your trades go well. Don.
$IYT - Daily ChartObviously BOI on daily rejected at R1 and upper BB. Great short targeting $140.26 ( to be nice - I believe much lower.
In a Potential 5th Wave....Price hit Support into time.....Price Action is thrusting up...now in retest of the highs ..
Buying on weakness and stops below prior pivot structure with price action
entry.
This will make $SPY moveWe could possible see it going down to $122 or making new highs by the end of the summer. $SPY
Classic Head n Shoulder's Bottom Suggest a possible target $135Earlier noted that we are bullish since it hit $115 and remain bullish now with target price $135 next few weeks.
$SPY - $IYT - Leading indicator huh?What if we broke the trade range below as a set up for UTAD. Bounce at CMF levels like this and new 52 week highs and lows are ripe for bounce. My bearish posture is leaning more bullish or this is a cluster F
