JETS 7 Year ResistanceThis is a very simple chart to read. Airlines hitting a 7-year resistance trendline.
Airlines are very capital-intensive and would greatly benefit from rate cuts.
Despite inflation pricing power has not risen sufficiently even nominally.
Oil has not helped their situation.
We have seen many airlines go bankrupt, close shop, and reduce capacity. This indirectly helps the major airlines as the industry cleanses.
A lot of talk of mergers and buyouts. For example, Frontier wants to merge with Spirit, Jetblue & United, and Southwest Pilot union seeking merger attorneys. Streamlining is always a good thing which is why JETS has risen as much as it has.
However, this may be it according to the chart. The next move could be down from here. Airlines are very economically sensitive and a recession would hit them hard.
JETS trade ideas
5/10/24 - MEGA SHORT time sensitive - $jets $qqq $soxl $vixydo yourself a favor and look into this incoming CME from the sun.
youtu.be - it's a short video WATCH IT NOW
6 or 7 earth bound flares that each have the capacity to f things up massively.
the reason this matters is it's a DOWN ONLY situation. the market doesn't know about this (clearly) so any non-event doesn't move the market "back up". many sources i look at suggest the deep negative event is 10%. could be higher for a disruptive event 20-30%.
EVEN IN a 10% disruption event, the market is looking very weak ON IT'S OWN and awaiting a pin. the flip flop from economic data is a DISTRACTION from something like this that trumps all...
jets - GROUNDED. FEAR. LEVERAGED. THEY GET DUMPED FIRST.
qqq - the richest valuations and the most affected by EMP style pain
soxl - the sector within the q's that is even more heady but doesn't have any 'pin' bc ai is strong narrative (i subscribe to this btw, but ST it's run hard)
vixy (go long not short like the above) - 0dte's have basically replaced the need to buy short term vol. HOWEVER the scenario where this gets disrupted is a CAN'T SEE THRU scenario - of which "this" is one of those
PLEASE post comments and let's discuss this. it's perhaps the most EV positive trade i've ever seen even if the scenario is a 10% one. i believe it's foolish not to participate in this and/or hedge responsibly. ignore this at your peril and flip the coins. but really - don't. let's help each other stay safe fam.
JETS: Looking to start a positionLooking to start a longer-term position with JETS ETF.
Currently reclaimed its wedge structure from a TA perspective.
Math-wise, I am looking for a mean reversion back up to around the 20$ range.
The current mean is 24$.
Not a short-term idea, but looking to try and find things that have not recovered as dramatically as the rest of the market and provide an opportunity to late entrants.
Just my thoughts!
JETS, a travel ETF rising summer travel season approaches LONGJETS on the reliable daily chart is in trend up since last fall which followed a trend down
during the spring and summer. Travel stocks are booming here and there including TCOM
(Trips.com) in China. The airlines have high volumes and are competing on price and perks.
So are the cruise lines. This ETF is a way to capture some profit from the trends. If has lower
risk but also lower reward than an individual stock JETS is upside range bound by the
second upper VWAP line above it. The predictive algorithm of Luxalgo forecasts a rise
to about 22 before that VWAP line rejects price into a reversal. I am shorts JETS while also
shorting NCLH and going long on AAL. I expect to profit and use funds for some more
frequent travel. The karma in the whole thing is that it is a closed circle. Watch travel
companies including booking agents, spent money traveling get insights and then deploy
capital to work those markets for profit returns to recycle the funds into more travel.
JETS Take-OffDespite travel having recovered significantly since COVID-19 lockdowns, US Global Jets ETF price action is far from its 2019 price. The ETF is up only 11.41% year-to-date and down about 32% in 5 years. The ETF has lagged behind the general market recovery and is trading at a MASSIVE DISCOUNT.
With the 48-month moving average and the higher-lows trendline looking like a potential resistance, the price should break above this double resistance possibility and if it fails, we will be accumulating for the long run.
LONG AIRLINES (JETS, AC, ACDVF, AAL)Technical and Fundamental Reasons for going Long AC Air Canada, and AAL and JETS and DAL AMEX:JETS TSX:AC OTC:ACDVF NASDAQ:AAL NYSE:DAL
We are in a tightening 3 Month range in all airline names (And even in broader markets)
Given how we have come straight down from the highs, a multi week bounce with legs is likely and positioning in here would be a strong Risk / Reward entry.
While DXY the dollar is set for monthly consolidation along with oil (Despite the knee jerk reaction to Israel which will likely fade. Markets are holding up well and have priced in peak rates with yields all coming down sharply after capitulating last week.
While DXY OIL and Yields drop.
Airlines are huge laggards (and after good selling and bad news being well priced in) it is time for major bounces. It is a highly volatile sector so a big drop the way it did warrants a big pop.
With capitulation following analyst downgrades, and company outlook drops to adjust estimates for rising fuel costs and labor costs. The discounts of this bad news is very well priced in and has capitulated with huge volume climaxes Monday after the Israel situation over the weekend.
As with 9/11 and Russia invasion, the knee jerk reaction last about a week, before the entire dip is re bought up. Assuming no escalation in Iran to push oil even higher, airlines will care most about earnings and forward guidance to see demand outlook for Q4 and 2024 company guidance.
With DAL reporting Thursday and more coming in next few weeks, I'd expect that the reported results for Q3 are very strong, and more importantly that Q4 and 2024 outlooks won't be as bad as markets are pricing. Resulting in a swift easy minimum10-15% bounce on many airline names.
Again: The bad news is very well priced in, and markets will begin to find good value for entrance pre earnings and post earnings as we are very oversold and surprised to the upside with earnings that weren't even close to as bad as markets are expecting as well as strong forward guidance.
LONG AIRLINES ACDVF, AC, JETS, AAL, DALTSX:AC Technical and Fundamental Reasons for going Long AC Air Canada, and AAL and JETS and DAL:
We are in a tightening 3 Month range in all airline names (And even in broader markets)
Given how we have come straight down from the highs, a multi week bounce with legs is likely and positioning in here would be a strong Risk / Reward entry.
While DXY the dollar is set for monthly consolidation along with oil (Despite the knee jerk reaction to Israel which will likely fade. Markets are holding up well and have priced in peak rates with yields all coming down sharply after capitulating last week.
While DXY OIL and Yields drop.
Airlines are huge laggards (and after good selling and bad news being well priced in) it is time for major bounces. It is a highly volatile sector so a big drop the way it did warrants a big pop.
With capitulation following analyst downgrades, and company outlook drops to adjust estimates for rising fuel costs and labor costs. The discounts of this bad news is very well priced in and has capitulated with huge volume climaxes Monday after the Israel situation over the weekend.
As with 9/11 and Russia invasion, the knee jerk reaction last about a week, before the entire dip is re bought up. Assuming no escalation in Iran to push oil even higher, airlines will care most about earnings and forward guidance to see demand outlook for Q4 and 2024 company guidance.
With DAL reporting Thursday and more coming in next few weeks, I'd expect that the reported results for Q3 are very strong, and more importantly that Q4 and 2024 outlooks won't be as bad as markets are pricing. Resulting in a swift 10-15% bounce on many airline names.
Again: The bad news is very well priced in, and markets will begin to find good value for entrance pre earnings and post earnings as we are very oversold and surprised to the upside with earnings that weren't even close to as bad as markets are expecting as well as strong forward guidance.
NASDAQ:AAL
TSX:AC
AMEX:JETS
NYSE:DAL
The benefits of JETSWith all of the various airlines having such similar patterns of movement JETS lets you be able to not get the same risk of the higher volatility that comes with holding each airline individually. With that being said there is less spikes in price action here which can also provide a more stable trading environment. When I look at the ETF JETS I have a general more bullish bias over long term as I believe travel trends will only increase in the next coming months with summer starting up now, we can expect to see those revenues reported by end of Q3.
JETS Put BuyerA Regression trend is a statistical method used to identify the underlying trend of a stock's price movement over a specified time period. It involves fitting a line to the data points of the stock's historical prices, which helps to determine if the stock is in an upward or downward trend. On this JETS chart, the regression trend channel starts with March 2021 highs and extends down to January 2023 lows. JETS has had a difficult time breaking and staying above the 200 day moving avg until just recently in January 2023.
The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) provides investors access to the global airline industry, including airline operators and manufacturers from all over the world. Its top holdings are: AAL, UAL, DAL, LUV, ALGT, ALK. The chart also shows numerous -22% to -28% declines in the past year. So is JETS due for another -20 to -30% correction?
On Friday, someone bought the JETS 4/21 19P 15,000x .65. This is a "cheap" put, but in large size ~$975K position on a .35 Delta. On one hand, this could be a hedge, for a fund manager who is long the Airlines or Market...on the other hand, if JETS is due for a correction, on a risk-reward basis, I would want to see JETS get below $17 with a $16.70 target, which is -15% below where it is currently trading and back within our regression channel and mean reversion.
Mean reversion states that stock prices tend to move back to their average or mean over time. The mean is typically calculated using the stock's historical prices, and the idea is that stock prices tend to deviate from their mean only temporarily, and eventually return to their average. In practice, the two concepts can be combined to form a trading strategy that involves buying stocks that are undervalued (below their mean) and selling stocks that are overvalued (above their mean).
Idea - JETS, Feb 3 (short)Keeping an eye on JETS. Fib levels from the previous high and low put the retracement range to being 18.36 to 19.46. If it pulls back, it will likely cross my baseline (Keltner/SSL Hybrid) and have a possible short signal. My CLAMP indicator has also turned blue, which indicates the previous MA has entered a negative direction.
I am not entering this trade yet, since my system is designed to trade trends, not reversals. The price has been consolidating over the last few periods and we're just waiting for a bearish breakout.
Note that JETS also correlates fairly strongly to the S&P. It will likely move down with the rest of the markets if that is the case.
$JETS ETF Inverse head and shouldersAnother inverse head and shoulders we have been following, setting up for a 3 bar play, bullish continuation. A little off the entry on this one but volatility is still rising with momentum and above clear resistance. A check back would be ideal, but its hard to say we will get one this far along.
Widow Makers Airline Stocks Beat the Market by the New YearSince the beginning of the new year, airline stocks have performed exceptionally well despite the very chaotic condition of the US airspace and travel market. Here is the year-to-date performance of a few well-known airline stocks, along with the Boeing stock and the U.S. Global Jets ETF:
● U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS): +18.56%
● United Airlines (UAL): +37.53%. Zacks EPS estimation: 2.07. Earning release: 1/17/23.
● American Airlines (AAL): +33.62%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.60. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● JetBlue Airways (JBLU): +26.40%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.17. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● Alaska Air (ALK): +18.16%. Zacks EPS Est. 0.88. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● Delta Air Lines (DAL): +16.31%. Reported EPS: 1.48 vs 1.29 estimated.
● Southwest Airlines (LUV): +13.15%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.25. Earning release: 1/17/23.
● Spirit Airlines (SAVE): +6.83%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.04. Earning release: 2/6/23.
● Boeing (BA): +10.01%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.29. Earning release: 1/25/23.
● S&P 500: +4.60%
Do You Enjoy Taking Flights On Jets?Do you enjoy taking flights on Jets?
Let's take a trip...together if you will.
Name and Ticker-U.S. Global Jets ETF AMEX:JETS
I've identified a cup and handle pattern on the jet. Perhaps, it will take off or maybe it won't. My prediction is that we will take this flight together.
Where is the confluence? Multiple touches on the 200MA (please see the daily chart ).
What locations (price targets) are possibilities on our itinerary? Minimum move of 1.87 above our handle (or runway if you're onboard this flight) and a maximum of 3.87 above the handle (3.87 includes the cup and handle sizes).
*Special note- Please be mindful that our "JETS" may be grounded if we break below the handle or channel.
Peace & Prosperity,
Al
$JETS to fall to $15 or lowerAs you can see from the chart, price has been consolidating in this channel. After this last rejection trying to break out above the channel, I think it sets up JETS for a move much lower.
I think we're likely to see $JETS break down out of the channel over the coming weeks and find support below the channel at $15 as the first target, but potentially lower if that first support can't hold.
Let's see what happens from here.