Bullish Banks despite the gloom.With many calling for a break down in banking stocks I see the possibility of further upside if this correction does in fact end soon. As ever, time will tell.
KBE trade ideas
SPRD S&P Bank ETF daily chart looks bearish50-DMA has topped out and is now sloping downwards.
The rising trend line was breached in mid-May. An attempt to take back the rising trend line failed.
We also have a bearish breakdown of the triangle formation.
The bearish price chart suggests bank stocks could lose altitude in the coming days. This goes will with the flattening of the treasury yield curve.
KBE: SPDR S&P Bank ETF Option Analysis
Today's 1-Day OHLC Volatility for KBE is 22.8. The 20-day average is 16.6, and the 52-week average is 21.2.
The 1-Day OHLC Volatility for SPY is 4.3, while the average over the last 20 days is 9.5, and for the last 52 weeks is 12.0.
Implied Volatility:
The current 30-Day Implied Volatility (IV30) is 18.8, and has moved -6.9% from yesterday. Its IV Ranking is 0.13, and is considered Subdued.
As a comparison, the current IV30 for SPY is 12.6, down -4.6% from the previous day. SPY's IV Rank is Moderate at 0.50.
Over the last 52 weeks, the IV30 Range is 16.1 - 43.2.
Over the same span, SPY's IV30 Range is 8.6 - 26.4.
Based on the IV30, a synthetic put to protect downside risk would cost 2.1%, compared to a 52-week range of 1.8% - 4.9%.
Volatility Skew:
The current downside put implied volatility is trading 1.1% higher than the upside call volatility, which represents a bullish tone when compared to the past year. Over the last year, the downside put has traded on average 18.5% higher than the upside call.
Option Volume:
On the day, KBE traded 5,174 contracts, with 0.1% being put options. This represents a relative volume of 2.2x compared to the last 90 days, when the average volume was 2,409 and 32.5% puts.
Upcoming Dividend:
The next dividend for KBE is on 16-Dec-2016. The amount has not yet been determined, but the indicative dividend yield is 1.25%.
ETF Holdings:
On the day, 61 (95.3%) of KBE's holdings are up. 2 (3.1%) are down.
The following holdings have earnings in the next week:
• USB on 19-Oct-2016 BeforeMarketOpen. The price effect from the previous earnings date was +1.6%, and the option market's implied straddle is ±2.0%.
• BBT on 19-Oct-2016 BeforeMarketOpen. The price effect from the previous earnings date was +0.4%, and the option market's implied straddle is ±2.1%.
• MTB on 19-Oct-2016 BeforeMarketOpen. The price effect from the previous earnings date was -4.1%, and the option market's implied straddle is ±2.4%.
• BK on 20-Oct-2016 BeforeMarketOpen. The price effect from the previous earnings date was -3.5%, and the option market's implied straddle is ±2.4%.
• STI on 21-Oct-2016 BeforeMarketOpen. The price effect from the previous earnings date was -1.8%, and the option market's implied straddle is ±2.4%.
The following holdings have dividends in the next week:
•FRC on 25-Oct-2016, for 0.16
•HOPE on 26-Oct-2016, for 0.12
marketchameleon.com
$kbe Confirm Sell Signal on DailyPrevious $kbe chart a confirm sell signal on Monthly, Now Daily chart confirm
2016 Stock Market CrashWe had an advance warning in 2007-2008 in regards to the Housing Bubble/Financial Crisis another sell signal on SPDR Bank ETF on the monthly chart
KBE (Weekly) Banks. Potential brake_out.KBE Banks. (Weekly)
S&P Banks Select Industry Index.
Bullish Flag brake_out.
Reaching 50% of high.
Above 50,100 sma.
RSI potential momentum brake_out.
Target : 38
KBE - pullback within large h&s pattern>1=ok 0=n/a or no
| Stock : KBE
| Days to Earnings : n/a
Fundamentals | Approximately,EPS Due Date : 0.00%
IBD | EPS Rating : 0
IBD | SMR Rating : 0
Whale wisdom .com | 13F shares % change: : -6.33%
Technicals | Horizontal S&R : 1
1=ok daily .6=ok 60m 0=no n/a=waiting | Channel S&R : 0
| MA S&R 20MA=.2 50MA=.5 200MA=1 : 1
| Pearsons R >87 : 1
Setups: T1=flag T2=double bottom | Price within Fib Ret..62 : 1
T1 Osc -1.38 | T2 Osc divergence : 1
T1 Fbar Stoch turn / crossover >= 80% | T2 Price @ MOB or Fib Ext >1.38<1.62 : 1
Stoch have not yet crossed 50 | T2 Stoch divergence / no Fbar : 100%
strong=1 neutral=0 weak=-1 | Stock XLT : 0
strong=1 neutral=0 weak=-1 | Group Leaders / Industry XLT : 0
| Group Leaders / Industry : kre + xlf
b=buy s=sell d=daily 60=hr | L / S / Strategy / Time Frame : s t1 d
| Symbol : KBE
| Trade Rating : 69%
| NOTES : Banks look weak to me. And shorting ETF's are much safer than stocks.
