RALLY BACK TO 45$Rally back to 45$ is a 70%/30% with the bull flag.
Five counts to the downside, potentially three more counts down or stabilize.
Bull flag, and nice bull pendant on the daily forming today as it bounced perfectly off resistance.
KRE trade ideas
Bearish potential detected for KRELooking at KRE during the final hour of trade this morning on the US markets, KRE represents a potential bearish opportunity should momentum continue and lower highs and lower lows be made past the current position, considering breach of recent support levels aligning with technical indicators of RSI and DMI. Personal stop loss for the trade would be the high of the recent swing on 17-Oct (i.e.: above the high of $42.92) and will track the declining 30 day moving average as the trade continues.
Regional Banks Are Still in Serious Trouble!Traders,
For the second time this year, regional banks are threatening to cross on over an essential support that has carried us through this secular bull market for 14 (going on 15) years! If our support breaks, I fear that regional banks could drag everything else down with it. Remember, it is regional banks that hold the loans for much of commercial real estate. Much of commercial real estate went vacant during COVID. We are only now beginning to understand the wave of bankruptcies that are crashing in hard as a result!
Watch this line closely or stay tuned here and I will keep you up to speed as I observe any significant changes.
Stewdamus
KRE head and shoulders bearish set up, low 30sKRE head and shoulders bearish set up, easy low 30s target, higher rates, wider AL mismatch due to longer durations of Mortgages+MBS, Capital Base deterioration due to CMBS defaults >>>
Fed to the rescue aka Regionals to fold into Big6...continued
Shorted KRE @ 44.37 off the 50 day maLook daily stock side ways below 20% line
Lower highs under the 50 day hit stopped
and below the 200 day
$KRE drift to $40 by Oct ExpThe AMEX:KRE has performed remarkably well since the lows in May. But mounting issues with rates and the Fed not showing signs of dropping rates will continue to prove the index needs to go lower. Options data suggests strong Put pressure into the end of the month at $42 where lower strike prices open by Oct expiration at $40 with strong open interest. If rates stay high, this index will go lower.
KRE ETF – are banking risks resurfacing? While the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has been a key factor in supporting bank equity, the rapid rise in US Treasury bond yields is a concern, and so is the exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). We can see CRE benchmarks rolling over of late and heading lower and this is keeping investors from buying into regionals. One for the radar, but if we see the price continue in the current trajectory then it could see signs of greater risk aversion kicking into markets. Staying in the ETF scene, I am also watching the HYG ETF (iShares High Yield Corp ETF) given we see that falling sharply but seeing some extremely oversold reads.
$KRE: Will a dip through 42.5 occur?KRE has been showing some relative weakness recently especially off the 45 handle. Thee list of weak regional stocks. EWBC, PNFP, FHB, BPOP and more are looking weak so we'll see if this weakness continues. Best of luck traders..
KRELike regional banks short here for a trade. Stop above the 50 sma. Looking for a breakdown below AVWAP from the high volume breakdown in March. This level is also volume POC for the consolidation since March so I'll look to exit quickly if it doesn't break down how I think it should. Looking for $39s.
KRE a banking sector ETF for regional banks LONGWhile tracking regional banks KRE had a bad time in the spring with the
small and regional bank failures/rescues and the federal actions to buttress the faith of
citizens in them. There have been no runs on the banks. Larger banks may be taken
some business from small banks saddled with securities with diminished
value due to rising interest rates and the effect on the face value of those
fixed-rate securities. No matter, things are better now. This is not to say
the whole banking sector stress is resolved. Banks have enjoyed great
returns on credit cards. The 15-minute chart here shows a good overall
uptrend within ascending parallel support and resistance trendlines.
Price is presently at the bottom of that parallel channel. The relative
trend index signal shows bearish trending today providing confirmation of
of a dip which is now available as an entry point. Relative Strength Indicator
which compares with the SPY showing persistent strength
Overall, I see this as a good entry point for a long-swing trade targeting
the top of the channel which I estimate will be about 52 by the
end of next week estimating the trade duration to be 5 trading days.
My reasonable opinion is that next week's volatility will be far less than
this past week and that DPST will do well. I will also take a look at
the KRE and KBE ETFs. I like this as a long setup with a 15% potential
for a very low risk in a stop loss set $.50 below the channel at 47.84
I have uploaded a similar idea on DPST.
$KRE Testing Double TopTechnical Analysis for AMEX:KRE Testing Double Top and 150 day moving average.
Banks are nearing a resistance level. The KBW Bank Index (BKX) and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) have both been on a strong upward trend in recent weeks, but they are now approaching their respective 150-day moving averages. These moving averages are important technical indicators, and they often act as resistance levels.
If the BKX and KRE break above their 150-day moving averages, they could continue to move higher. However, if they fail to break above these levels, they could pull back and consolidate.
For those with quick profits, it may be a good idea to take the money and run. The risk of a pullback is increasing as the BKX and KRE approach their 150-day moving averages.
The circumstance at present for each (the BKX and KRE) can be characterized as “a rally to a difficult level where overhead supply comes into play”. This means that there is a lot of selling pressure at these levels, and it could be difficult for the BKX and KRE to break through.
If you are still bullish on banks, I would recommend waiting for a pullback before buying. This would give you a better entry point and reduce your risk.
Tesla & Netflix Slammed: Market UpdateDiscussing the latest price action in many of the mega cap names.
#tsla #NFLX #DXY #QQQ #SPY
SPDR $&P Regional Banking - IHS The chart has printed a decent inverted head and shoulders pattern.
A successful breakout targets the down sloping 200dma around $50 then R55 for a measured move.
An inverted head and shoulders pattern is a common chart pattern in technical analysis that signals an upcoming bullish trend after a period of a bearish trend or consolidation. The pattern is formed by three successive price bottoms, with the middle bottom being the lowest and the two other bottoms being higher on both sides. The pattern is completed when the price crosses above the neckline, which is formed by connecting the high points of the two shoulders. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is the opposite of the head and shoulders pattern and is used to predict reversals in downtrend
Opening (IRA): KRE June/July/August 36/34/31 Short Put LadderComments: High IV at 39% and change, with weakness to boot. Laddering out here, rather than taking all the risk in one expiry and at one strike.
Bearish Regional Banks -Downside LeaderMore evidence that U.S. stocks could soon begin a significant drop lower comes from the Regional Bank - ETF (KRE).
KRE made a new bear market low on 05/04/23 and has recently rallied to just below a Fibonacci .236 retracement of its 2022 to 2023 bear move.
Daily RSI and MACD have bear crosses.
KRE has a very good chance of dropping back to the 05/04/23 bear market low at 34.52.
If that low does not hold it could decline back to its March 2020 bottom at 27.26.
Stock bulls beware, the S&P 500 post October 2022 rally could soon be coming to an end!
Building a shoulderLooks like the right side shoulder is building on this possible inverse head and shoulder. Accumulate at the neck line.
KRE - Regional Banking Crisis or Opportunity? KRE Regional Banking ETF
We are currently at oversold levels that offered good historic returns even if we only rise 15% to TASE:TASECTORBALANCE (Dec 2018 low) before moving lower.
Given the evolving Banking Crisis we could we revisit the bottom of the long term channel by EOY. This would be a great opportunity.
Throwback to TASE:TASECTORBALANCE dollars current idea... stay frosty on this one traders. Current wick low is your stop.
Safe Trading
PUKA
KRE Regional Banking Sector ETF ( Buy the Dip)Buy the panic in the banking sector then sit wait watch and profit.
See also by KBE idea
KRE: Adios AmigosNot the time to be long. Head & shoulders pattern with open gaps to fill below. No remaining support.
If KRE retraces 50% of it's moveDPST goes to 9~.
Not bad.
Coincides with some resistance.
DivYield is 7% anyways
50% retracement is pretty standard.
KRE Is a reversal underway?KRE the regional bank ETF is down about 50 % YTD, with a couple of bank failures leading the
way. The question that arises is whether there is more downside. Faith and trust in the
the banking system is at risk. The big banks came in their rescue on First Republic. A run on
the little banks can hurt the big banks even Goldman Sacks. Holding treasuries with fixed
rates lower than current rate sucks for sure. The fed will clean up this mess and will
do it right and has started that process. KRE chart with the fisher transform indicator
and the zero-lag MACD tells me that KRE is now " reverting to the mean" & dropped below
the Fibonacci bands of the basis EMA. Line crossovers on the indicators are confirmatory.
I will seize the situation and add to my long position. Due you agree that this is picking low
laying fruit?
Regional Banks on the Brink!Zoom in and you will see that Regional Banks have closed several times now below this critical trend line. If the Fed fails to save them, deflationary recession/depression it is. I am banking on a Fed save. The Fed always protects it's own. Therefore, blow-off top incoming. Followed by hyper-inflationary recession/depression next year.
Should be a show.
Stew
KRE - Patience RequiredKRE has provided some of the most technically-sound short opportunities in recent memory, but it is approaching major support at which point the probabilities flip to the long-side (with disciplined risk management). Expect some choppy price action, but remain patient for one last leg down and a very promising long opportunity
