KWEB Price target $24.25 around April 14th 2022Using this interface is beyond painful. First post blocked do to a URL to my other charts? Whats the link button for?
KWEB trade ideas
Long when pullback20th March 2022
KWEB (Chinese internet ETF)
Since China says it will support Chinese IPOs abroad, calls for closure on tech crackdown last week, we can see most Chinese ADR shares shoot up. If KWEB fall below $20, will not be a good sign.
Otherwise, this ETF is good to enter for long term investor. As for trading, long whenever it pull back.
MASSIVE DISLOCATION between QQQ and China TechAn inflationary scenario could see an absolutely HUGE catchup in Chinese tech relative to the nasdaq. I am LONG KWEB
KWEBI'm going to start buying KWEB aggressively after this has just broke down on that support line
China Tech ETF
Closed: KWEB March 18th 35C/39P Short Strangle... for a 6.67 debit.
Comments: Took the opportunity to close out this inverted setup while I had the chance to scratch it out. Collected a total of 6.77, (See Post Below), so made a whopping .10 ($10) on it, which is better than a loss. Rank/implied remains decent at 62/53.6, so may re-up tomorrow depending on what underlyings float to the top of my screener.
Closing: KWEB March 18th 27 Short Put... for a .12 debit.
Comments: Added this for a .63 credit to my inverted 35C/39P short strangle to rapidify cost basis reduction and improve my break evens. (See Post Below). Since price is back between my short strikes and the short put is approaching worthless, I'm taking it off here. Total credits collected of 6.77 with break evens of 32.23 on the put side, 41.77 on the call.
Rolling: KWEB January 18th 38.42C/40.42P to February 18th ... 35.42C/39.42P short strangle for a 1.04 credit.
Comments: Another inverted that I'm rolling out a tad early and on which I've collected a total of 5.25 in credit. (See Post Below, to which the 1.04 credit received here should be added). Like ARKK, it also experienced a distribution, which ended changing the strike prices. In any event, it's a 4.00-wide inversion on which I've collected 5.25, so I can still make money on it, but will probably scratch it out if I get an opportunity and re-up with an unbroken setup if the implied volatility remains attractive.
KWEB: China tech bottomed?I think it's either the bottom or very close to it. Worth taking a punt here, risk 3 average ranges down and go for the gold .
Let's see how this one works out, I'm not risking big on China overall, but from a contrarian standpoint it is really interesting as to pass on it here. It will be more confirmed once the daily chart flashes a bottom signal, this would take a couple weeks, after not falling lower.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Rolling: KWEB January 21st 47 Short Call to 41... for a 1.13 credit.
Comments: Rolling the short call leg of my short strangle down defensively below my 43 short put, so I'm now inverted to a two wide (the 41C/43P). Total credits collected of 4.21 (See Posts Below), so I'm functionally long the 43's with a cost basis of 43 - 4.21 = 38.79.
$KWEB - Diving board pattern reversal?It has been painful for the bulls. Adding insult to the injury, what seems like a bottoming process suddenly the price dropped through the bottom.
Diving board dictates a consolidation period followed by a sharp drop followed by sharp recovery. Are we seeing that playing out?
Time will tell. If the price break above the $44 level it has a real chance of getting to $54.59 ish.
So what its going to be? Who knows...
Target 1 - $44
Target 2 - $54.59
Risk - failure to break above $44.
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How to read my charts?
- Matching color trend lines shows the pattern. Sometimes a chart can have multiple patterns. Each pattern will have matching color trend lines.
- The yellow horizontal lines shows support and resistance areas.
- Fib lines also shows support and resistance areas.
- The dotted white lines shows price projection for breakout or breakdown target.
Disclaimer: Do your own DD. Not an investment advice.
Time to buy Chinese stocks? Better buy this ETF.I watched the fall in Chinese stocks for almost the entire 2021, and it seems to me now it's worth taking a closer look at buying Chinese stocks. But in order to protect myself from big losses I'm not going to buy individual stocks, instead I will buy this ETF. It's structure is more than perfect to me and I can avoid potential delisting risks of Chinese stocks. Buy zone @ $37.5-40, SL $33.5, TP $50-55. DON'T risk too much on this one.
Rolling: KWEB January 17th 55 Short Call to 47... for an .80 credit.
Comments: Rolling the short call aspect of my short strangle down to cut net delta in half here on this sell-off. I've collected a total of 3.08 in credits, with the resulting short strangle being the January 17th 43/47.
Opening: KWEB January 21st 55 Short Call... for a .68 credit.
Comments: Selling a delta cutter against the 43 short put I already have on in the cycle (See Posts Below) to cut net delta/directionality, so I've now got a January 21st 43/55 short strangle on with a cost basis of 2.28. The position remains net delta bullish.
Is it time to invest in China?KWEB is a China technology based ETF.
Top 10 holdings by weight:
Tencent Holdings ~ 10.62%
Alibaba Group Holding ~ 10.32%
JD.com ~ 7.21%
Meituan ~ 6.99%
Pinduoduo Inc ~ 6.97%
NetEase Inc ~ 4.71%
Baidu Inc ~ 4.27%
Bilibili Inc ~ 3.83%
Trip.com Group ~ 3.82%
JD Health International ~ 3.32%
Fundamental Analysis
China’s stock market pullback this year has been in line with the average annual drawdown (approximately 30%); historically, this volatility has tended to produce double-digit annualized gains.
In terms of seasonality, over the past 20 years, October has been amongst the strongest months for the Chinese stock market.
Technical Analysis
The 50sma has been tested as resistance 3 times before. A breakout above the 50sma could signal a significant change in trend.
The RSI has shown a positive divergence, as the last three times, we tested the horizontal line (blue arrow), in each case RSI is showing higher lows.
Rolling: KWEB December 17th to January 19th 43 Short Put... for a .56/contract credit.
Comments: Rolling out at >50% max here for a realized gain and a credit and without taking on additional risk. I originally filled this a 1.04/contract credit (See Post Below), so have collected a total of 1.56 relative to a short put value of 1.04 (i.e., realized gains of 1.56 -1.04 = .54/$54).
Implied remains relatively decent here at a 30-day of 45.4%. If it had dropped below 35%, I'd probably just take profit and move on.
$KWEB - Could break out to $64KWEB is forming what could be a reversal triangle. Breaking out of that triangle could propel the stock to $64
Target 1 - $54
Target 2 - $64
Risk - Break below $47
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How to read my charts?
- Matching color trend lines shows the pattern. Sometimes a chart can have multiple patterns. Each pattern will have matching color trend lines.
- The yellow horizontal lines shows support and resistance areas.
- Fib lines also shows support and resistance areas.
- The dotted white lines shows price projection for breakout or breakdown target.
Disclaimer: Do your own DD. Not an investment advice.
Opened (Margin): KWEB December 17th 43 Short Put... for a 1.04 credit/contract.
Comments: 30-day at 45.4% and at or near a 52-week low. Sold around the 20 delta here and will look to take this particular trade off on approaching worthless. 8.9% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect.
China Tech: The Nightmare Could Be EndingThe last year for Chinese technology stocks has been nothing short of a nightmare. But now there could be signs of a turn in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, which holds key names like Tencent and Alibaba.
The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) was under the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since March. But last week, that faster-moving line rose above the slower one for the first time.
Next, KWEB has stabilized around $45. This was near the high in June 2015 and the bottom of its consolidation area in April-May 2020, immediately before a 110 percent rally.
Third, notice the rounded bottom with a low near $46 in July, a deeper low under $44 in August and then a higher low near $45 again this month. That lack of a lower low suggests prices may have bottomed.
Fourth, KWEB ended September with an inside week and began October with a bullish outside week. Such price action is also consistent with a trend reversal (in this case, a six-month bearish trend).
Finally, the Chinese yuan is rising the most against the U.S. dollar today since the first session of the year. It seems to result from confidence that the property-developer debt crisis is easing. While it’s not directly related to the country’s technology sector, renewed strength in the yuan would also provide a tailwind for KWEB.
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Is KWEB finally ready to pushWe've been waiting for the China rally for a while now.
When this trend line breaks, I believe volume will come in.
We are at clear support with a clear price level of significance above.
As well, the 382 fib is showing itself as a target $60.78.
The 200 day is lagging above.
The volume profile is also showing this level as most traded.
Do with this information what you will.
Happy Trading
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