MJ trade ideas
MJ Bollinger Band prediction using recent supportThis sector has been beaten down even though sales are high. Everyone is still buying marjiuana, if not more. This seems like a steal to me.
Although I don't love some of MJ's holdings, its volatility is much better than individual companies within the sector.
I hope to pick up 20 - 25 1/15/21 $24 Calls @.15 each.
Alternative Harvest ETFSymbol: MJ
The cannabis sector. The holy grail of money to be flooded to. These cannabis prices are insane. I've been wanting to buy into this ETF but clearly this has not been a good sign in a while. When market corrects I think the cannabis sector will take off running. Will keep watching to see if it wants to correct lower. Obviously I'm on the weekly so I'm looking for a good transition.
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Trading Edge 2020 Portoflio -Trade #1 - MJ - Under loved Pot ETFTrading Edge 2020 Portfolio trade #1
Ticker: MJ
Position:
- Looking at long dated call options (Jan 15th 2021)
- $15 strike (ITM, gives some degree of protection against theta decay)
- Cost (approximately $460/ contract, at current mid bid and ask, willing to go as high as $5.00)
- 0.72 Delta (ITM)
- Running 2x contracts (allows us to sell one on the way up, also makes a more meaningful position size)
Profit Target/ Exit:
- looking for mean reversion to allow us to sell half to have a riskless trade, this would require a move to around the $22.50 - $23.00 range
- Given the fact the position is a long-dated option, we will not run a technical stop, instead we will let the position run and check to see if it performers or not (i.e. no point running a 50% stop and getting stopped out, 1 month into a 12 month contract).
Rationale:
- Speculative counter trend play on MJ, given the overwhelming negative sentiment
- Simple position to manage, the long-dated nature means that we have 12 months for this ETF to regain it's legs, also means that if we get a market correction, we have the time to ride it out
- Despite the price action, MJ has been a high beta performer, if we are going through a 'melt up' phase, then MJ is likely to be swept up in the euphoria
- Both MACD and RSI signaling a possible bullish reversal (or even just a potential bear rally)
- Moving averages signaling a possible bounce is due, not necessarily a total trend reversal
- TradingEdge
Portfolio spreadsheet available to view here >>> docs.google.com
MJ has been strong as consumers load up on cannabisIt's difficult to pick which cannabis stocks will survive and which will thrive, but the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) provides a selection of the major players in this young industry. The industry has suffered bumps and grinds, but is due for a rebound, consolidation and growth.
Bullish Abandoned BabyNote that it's not a perfect pattern as the last cande before the gap down is not a large down candle.
Anyhow it could signal a reversal of the downtrend if we gap up Monday and moves aggressively to the upside.
It's a good risk reward scenario for a long as we sit right at the support level, which is being tested for the third time if we move up Monday.
MJ volume not high enough...Cannabis stocks have been gaining from the start of this week.
Technical analysis
RSI has been trending upward, but OBV has not, creating a bearish divergence. /Bearish
We saw the same three candlesticks ending on November 21st, 2019, leading to a strong pullback. (Red circle drawn in chart). /Bearish
Fundamental analysis
Since May 2019, cannabis stocks have been shorted creating a downturn for the whole sector.
Many of the biggest companies are undervalued. But stocks can stay undervalued longer than we can accept our losses.
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Keeping on a close watchlist.
Alternative Harvest ETF - Pass the profits to the left hand sideBuy ETFMG Alternative Harvest (MJ.US)
ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks total return performance of the Prime Alternative Harvest Index, which tracks companies likely to benefit from the increasing global acceptance of various uses of the cannabis plant.
Market Cap: $764Million
Cannabis stocks have attracted fresh buying interest in recent days having traded in a terrible downtrend for many months. The ETF has broken out of an ending wedge formation and looks set to unwind some of the short interest that has accumulated over recent months. There are several levels to target on the upside with the ultimate price target being around 52% above yesterdays closing price.
Stop: 15.72
Target 1: 20.15
Target 2: 23.18
Target 3: 27.10
Bullish Daily Chart on $MJDaily Chart is looking like a great long-term buy down here. Watching for a move over the daily 50sma and a continuation higher above $20.
It's been a rough ride down since March of 2019, We trended all the way back down to 2017 support on the North American Cannabis Sector shown here -> charts.stocktwits.com
I'm anticipating for this to hit $50 in the 5 years
GLTA and Reinvest those dividends back into MJ :)
These weed stocks aim go Higher. Very small stop loss and very large profit potential in these. The volume confirmation is clear to see and should bode well well for these week stocks mentioned going forward. The need to break above the suggested levels and stay above if trend reversals will occur as indicated.
Cannabis will reach the US... sooner than later!Recent significant events:
House Passes Bill to Protect Banking for Marijuana Businesses
Measure would prevent federal regulators from penalizing institutions that serve companies operating in states where cannabis is legal. // September 25th, 2019
House committee approves landmark bill legalizing marijuana at the federal level
The House Judiciary Committee (Democratic-controlled) approved a bill that decriminalizes marijuana on the federal level, removing it from Schedule 1 of the Controlled Substances Act.
The legislation, which passed 24 to 10, has a high chance of approval in the full House where Democrats control the chamber with 234 seats. It’s likely to face a tougher battle in the Republican-controlled Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell opposes marijuana legalization. // November 19th, 2019
There is no date for the senate to review the bill; we could see large volatility then. (will update asap)
Technical analysis:
Volume on the ladder of the events created the 3rd largest volume daily since MJ ETF was created (2016).
20SMA is our nearest resistance.
--Keeping cannabis related stocks/ETFs closely watched.
MJ SHORT SEE NO UPSIDEMarijuana Stocks Have Been Pummeled, MJ is about to hit their 52 week low of $18.07. Per Barrons.com Analyst believe things will get better when Canada puts in dispensaries and the introduction of options like vapes. I could not disagree more, less fly by night companies and forget vaping.