OIH/OIL BULLISH BREAKOUT WITH 8 WEEK MA CROSSING 2YR TREND LINE!Time for Oil Services companies to rally BIG TIME...
OIH trade ideas
67% Probability trade on OIH (Put Ratio+Call)With over 20% move to the upside in the last 29 days, I think is time for OIH to have some sort of pullback or correction. The last 5 candles couldn't close outside of the Upper Bollinger Band, so it looks like is losing momentum and most likely retrace at least to the midline.
Implied Volatility Rank is at 54 so I sold the 28/27 Put Ratio Spread (2 Short Puts at 27 Strike Price for each Long Put at 28). And also added some juice with a Short Call at the 30 Strike.
In total I ended up with $0.40 credit for each contract.
I did 5 of those, so it would be 5x10 Put Ratio + 5 Calls.
Between $30 and $28 I would be making $200, and my max profit of $700 would be at the $27 price (around where the 20MA is). This trade will make profits between the $25.60-$30.40 Price, this gives us a 67% chance to make money.
The trade:
Long (1) 28 Put
Short (2) 27 Put
Short (1) 30 Call
Total Credit was $0.40 per contract
Probability of Profit 67%
Energy Services Breakout - Actionable -After months of lagging XLE, and the overall market, OIH is stepping up to the plate.
Underlying holdings like HAL and SLB making moves.
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OIH breaking outOIH is breaking to new highs, potentially breaking out of the wedge it has been stuck in since bottoming. A potential new Arab Spring in Iran and coming disruption in Venezuela should boost prices through the year. As WTI Crude TVC:USOIL continues to hit new highs yet diverge from OIH, I've become to worry that OIH will not see the same gains after hitting a multiple top. This may be an opportunity to buy at a discount. XLE seems to tracking more closely to the price of oil and could be a nice way to diversify closer to crude though at a premium to OIH.
OIH GETTING READY FOR MELT UP WITH 8 & 200 DMA SIGNALSimilar to 8 & 200 Week MA Crossover Signal Last Week in Crude Oil
OIH Long Oil stays relatively strong improving revenues. OPEC has a better control of their supply. Saudi's consolidation of power strengthens OPEC's power. Higher Interests rates and costs of production for the debt-laden shale producers will dampen their response to higher prices.
OIH Long - Time: 6-12 monthsLooking at a recovery over the next year or so. Oil recovering and breaking out over 55. Higher interest rates will dampen the response from debt-laden shale producers. Saudi's consolidation of power should add more stability to their production. TVC:USOIL
Short PutsLooking to continue to move capital around for healthy ROCs.
Sept 15 $24 put is offering 2.33% ROC in 51 days, possibly better if we get a quicker contraction.
Sold Sept 15 $24 put for $.56.
CLOSED: OIH Aug credit spreadThe bear call credit spread strategy gives a decent probability of profit, defined risk, and expresses a bearish opinion that the underlying will move lower.
The IVR on OIH reached above 70% and July 12 with a bearish opinion I sold the 25/26 call spread, 2 contracts @ 36 credit ea.
The $25.36 break even was quickly tested the following days, but eventually I closed a week early at 5c.
In hind sight I should have just closed the short option at 5c and let worthless long call expire to avoid the broker fee.
No risk to the upside trade on OIH (Big Lizard)After a couple of down days in oil OIH have been affected. Now with an Implied Volatility rank of 27 it gives us a chance to sell some premium.
A big lizard (Straddle with no upside risk) is a nice probability trade to do in case it decides to bounce back up.
Trade price $1.24 per contract
The trade:
Sellthe Jul21 24.5 Call
Sell the Jul21 24.5 Put
Buy the Jul21 25.5 Call
Break even is 23.26
Probability of profit 70%
OIH ETF- LONGOnce PA closes on daily candle above MA 20 Black line, will be taking a bullish position with stock options r buying stock. SLB stock, owns 21.7% of this ETF.
The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVISa US Listed Oil Services 25 Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index includes common stocks and depository receipts of U.S. exchange-listed companies in the oil services sector. Such companies may include small- and medium-capitalization companies and foreign companies that are listed on a U.S. exchange. The fund is non-diversified.
Volume: over 8,000,000
Avg. Vol: over 6,000,000
*This might be an ETF to look at, appears to have bottomed out and oversold at this time.
OPENING: OIH JUNE 16TH 24/27/27/28 BROKEN WING BUTTERFLYA slight variation on a Super Bull (short put vertical financing a long put vertical; bullish assumption).
Metrics:
POP%: 71%
Max Profit: 1.12/contract
Max Loss/BPE: 1.88/contract
Break Even: 25.88
Notes: There are a couple of different ways to work this intratrade: (a) take the long put vert off in profit, leave the short put vert to ride; (b) the inverse of that; or (c) look to take it off as a unit. Here, I'll be shooting for 50% max and to take the entire thing off as a unit, but will also watch for opportunities. Filled for a .12 credit, by the way ... . Generally, this isn't my go-to instrument (XOP is more liquid), but I'm working a trade in XOP and don't want to step on that setup.
OIH Iron FlyLittle pops around in oil related underlyings.
Trade Setup:
- 1 OIH Apr 21 26/30/30/34 Iron Fly @ $1.95
DTE: 37
Max Win: $195
Max Loss: $205
Breakevens: $28.05 & $31.95
Trade Management: 25% or about $49-50. Full loser is also comfortable on the trade.
Green is profit zone; Vertical black bar is expiration.
OIH chart of the dayLet’s point that April 5-August 8 of this year under support and broke into the upside and in the middle about the support. Do I think oillers are back? I am on the fence about oil. I don’t like to be in the sector of this part of energy and I will argue why; Think about it in two way one the market vs the street pricing. From the east coast which it is cheap to the west coast is expensive for drivers. “Vegas is in the $2.43-$2.45 range but who wants to drive in vegas besides the residence of the city?” I think that the cold weather months has a effect on the oilers. Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO has gone from $26 to $16.12 that is today’s price for the stock. I’m not a buyer for any liquid i.e. “OIL” I think that We should look at different sectors such as Financial, Healthcare industry and many more besides oilers I’m not telling you to completely avoid the Energy sector only the oil and gas
OIH: Oil Service Sector Looks To Sell-Off With Crude Oil FuturesI am publishing this chart on the oil-service-sector-ETF-OIH.
It stands to reason that if Light-Crude-Oil is going to sell down, the oil-service-sector will be weak also.
One would confirm the other.
Just as with Light-Crude-Oil-Futures, There are many sell signals.
1. Sell Fractals in effect (rectangles on chart).
2. Alligator jaws opened in tandem with sell Fractal.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) (indicates a trend or choppy action) is below the 38.2 shaded area. This indicates a strong trend coming that is down.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is heading higher (one green bar) because of short-term bounce. Look for reversal before zero line.
5. Momentum (middle top indicator) is the 5/34 measure, and this is heading lower.
6. Prices are trading below the Ichimoku Cloud .
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
9. The trend-line is heading down (thick golden line inside the Ichimoku Cloud ).
The sell signal will most likely trigger when RSI/ Stochastic (top indicator) reverses, and the phase energy starts to have red bars.
This has already happened on the one hour chart. For oil-service I believe the path of least resistance is down. Don.
