Platinum An Undervalued Long Looking at platinum, particularly the physical platinum ETF AMEX:PPLT , AMEX:PPLT there are several technical and fundamental factors that make me bullish on this often-overlooked metal.
Precious Metal Rally: Precious metals like gold, silver, and even non-precious metals like copper have been experiencing significant gains. This rally coincides with bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates due to signs of a cooling economy, which can benefit metals as a non-yielding asset class. The global uncertainty surrounding conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war further strengthens the case for precious metals as a safe haven investment.
Falling 10-Year Yield: The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield seems to be breaking down after recent economic data pointed towards a potential slowdown. For instance, the JOLTS job data showed fewer job openings than expected, and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, met expectations. While manufacturing has slowed down, the business services sector remains robust. Rising jobless claims in recent weeks can also signal an economic slowdown. The non-farm payrolls data, due for release tomorrow (June 7, 2024), will be a key indicator of the U.S. job market's health. Any signs of significant cooling could influence the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, potentially fueling demand for non-yielding metals as investors seek alternatives to bonds.
Weakening Dollar: The dollar experienced a breakout on the daily chart but appears to be rolling over, likely along with the 10-year yield, as U.S. economic data cools. A weaker dollar can be bullish for metals as it reduces the purchasing power of the dollar, making precious metals a more attractive investment for wealth preservation purposes.
Platinum: The Laggard
One of the key reasons for my bullish sentiment on platinum is its apparent discount compared to other precious metals like gold and silver. Platinum has consistently underperformed for years due to its relative obscurity. However, I believe that recent technical and fundamental developments are creating a compelling opportunity for platinum to catch up and reclaim its status as a valuable precious metal. The chart below compares platinum to gold and silver.
(Blue Line - Platinum, Orange Line - Silver, Light Blue Line - Gold)
As you can see, platinum has lagged behind silver and gold for years, presenting a potential value opportunity to invest in precious metals without entering at all-time highs.
Bullish Technicals: Looking at AMEX:PPLT , the physical platinum ETF, we can see that it briefly experienced a breakout of the weekly downtrend resistance zone. However, it has since pulled back due to being overbought during the initial breakout, as indicated by the RSI reaching 80 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) displaying an overbought reading. Since then, the price has held at a previous resistance point, potentially transforming it into support. The 50-day moving average also provides additional support, suggesting a potential for a higher low and a continuation of the upward trend. This pullback has allowed the platinum market to cool off after the initial overbought surge, and with the RSI now at a neutral level and the CCI significantly lower, the market may be poised for further gains.
Overall, I remain bullish on platinum due to a combination of fundamental and technical factors. These include a cooling economy that could lead to lower yields and a weaker dollar, both of which benefit metals. Additionally, platinum's underperformance compared to gold and silver presents a potential catch-up opportunity. Finally, the bullish technical indicators on the AMEX:PPLT chart support my long position on platinum.
AMEX:PPLT NYMEX:PL1! TVC:PLATINUM
PPLT trade ideas
platinum Let's talk about #platinum.
What is platinum? Until a long time ago, it was a rare, scarce metal that was used in jewelry and some other technical applications.
It is still scarce but now its use is necessary in electric vehicle batteries. Almost all production is concentrated in #SouthAfrica.
It had its speculative bubble where the price was inflated more in a want than a being; but being has arrived, and what was temporary madness will become mathematical logic.
We are waiting to see a break in that weekly triangle, with the consequent explosive growth that could be seen by the summer of 2024, until the summer of 2026, early 2027.
I have analyzed an #etf that replicates the price of the metal, but you know that there are different ways to invest in #platinum; from having it physically (€840/ounce), to investing in #ETFs or shares of extraction-mining companies.
Platinum (PPLT) rejects the 100 DMA....Dollar fell last week giving a bump last week but the 100 DMA was a cap looking for the PPLT to test the lower bound of an envelope....This would be a possible buying opportunity when the stock market corrects and get to a more buyable washout. Maybe we test 83 then 79 and if really bad news strikes we could get way over sold to hit 78. with the weak dollar that would be an excellent spot to add.
Shark?Or a Cypher. It depends when this reverses but I am watching both levels.
A shark can also go to the 1.113. The Cypher terminates at the .786 but is not as common as a shark.
Peak 2 is higher than peak 1.
Watching and thx again to nuggetrouble (o"
No recommendation/This may not be finished going down just yet.
CMF is still below the 0 line.
Double Bottom on the horizonI wish gold and silver looked as good. Given where it's started, 50 will be a fantastic place for investors, esp for newbs who are looking for a place to start slow, and build. The only thing is, the liquidity of this Aberdeen fund is thin and often volatile. Much success.
PPLT - Is it time?Long-term super bullish, especially when whichever President prints more monopoly money! Short-term - am I being too optimistic?
PLATINUM QUARTERLY / Q2 2020 / © World Platinum Investment Council Ltd 2020
8th September 2020
Platinum supply and demand – updating 2020
The revised 2020 forecast has moved the platinum market into an annual deficit of -336 koz compared to the prior estimate of
a +247 koz surplus. Total platinum supply in 2020 is now forecast to fall by 14% (-1,159 koz) to 7,102 koz. This reflects a 15%
(-910 koz) decline in refined production and a 12% (-250 koz) decline in recycling supply.
Total platinum demand in 2020 is forecast to be 7,438 koz, 11% (-948 koz) lower than in 2019 due to lower demand from all
four demand segments: automotive (-464 koz), jewelry (-287 koz), industrial (-5 koz) and investment (-192 koz). However, total
investment demand in 2020 is now forecast to be 1,060 koz, 15% lower than in 2019 but 455 koz higher than previously forecast for
the year. Indeed, heightened global risk is expected to continue to drive investor demand for hard assets, with bar and coin demand
forecast to grow by 113% to 600 koz.
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Platinum’s price outperformance of gold is no anomaly. Over the two years from the price lows of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
in late 2008, platinum’s weekly returns outperformed gold’s by between 30% and 65%. Platinum’s performance was not solely due to
growing investment demand; exceptionally strong platinum jewellery demand and limited supply growth maintained positive investor
sentiment despite very weak automotive demand. During 2020, platinum market fundamentals have improved appreciably, as noted
above, with strong buying in China on the SGE and direct platinum imports. Platinum’s longstanding strong correlation with gold has
rebounded to over 0.7 since the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded. Consequently, many more gold investors could consider platinum as
a proxy for gold on that correlation alone, with the added potential outperformance of platinum a further enticement.
Cup and HandleNot a recommendation
Aberdeen Standard Platinum ETF Trust - Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum Shares ETF is an exchange traded fund launched and managed by Aberdeen Standard Investments ETFs Sponsor LLC. The fund invests in commodity markets. It invests in platinum bullions. The fund seeks to track the price of physical platinum. Aberdeen Standard Platinum ETF Trust - Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum Shares ETF was formed on December 30, 2009 and is domiciled in the United States.
The investment seeks to reflect the performance of the price of physical platinum, less the expenses of the Trust’s operations. The fund designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in platinum with minimal credit risk. Advantages of investing in the Shares include Ease and Flexibility of Investment, Expenses, Minimal Credit Risk. Benchmark: LBMA Platinum PM PR USD
Platinum will reign supreme again!Everyone knows platinum is the superior metal to Gold, it's rarer and a lot less of its supply has been mined. However the price hasn't reflected this for a while now which could be due to a few factors such as less demand for industrial use as well as investment and not to mention the world wide pandemic.
Below I've quoted some interesting facts from a report by the World platinum investment council, yes I understand they're biased however I encourage everyone to do their own research.
"First-quarter bar and coin investment surged to 312 koz in Q1 2020 – up over 300% on the quarterly average of 70 koz in 2019. This was driven by a jump in bar and coin demand in both Japan and the US, while demand in Europe also increased albeit from a low base. The increase was largely driven by bargain-hunting following the price fall in March. Bar and coin investment demand is expected to surge by 115% to 605 koz in 2020. "
"While total automotive platinum demand is forecast to fall by 14% (-413 koz) in 2020, automotive demand in China is expected to increase by 14%, despite the effects of COVID-19. The phasing in of China VI standards for heavy-duty vehicles drives an increase in loadings that outweighs the expected decline in units produced. Similarly, the implementation in India of the Bharat VI legislation in April 2020, is also likely to increase demand for platinum, despite the lockdown restrictions that are currently in place. "
Aside from this, we are seeing record levels of inflation in the USD and investors are looking at alternative and speculative investments like precious metals.
Platinum Breaking out of 2 months #rectangle #chartpattern Broke out today on good volume. Minimum price pattern target identified on the chart. Platinum formed 2 months classical #rectangle chart pattern with a breakaway gap in today's session. Expecting higher prices heading towards #rectangle price target.
PPL breaking out and going bullish? Seems like a long term downtrend can break. If it will continue sideways or continue to rise is to early to say. My entrance is 88,8. Lets hope it breaks the 97-100 range. It will then have the potential to become a long term trend to ride. Just an ealry warning :) But maybe smart to wait for confirmation above 97-100.