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RSP trade ideas

$RSP This chart becomes significantly crucial if the trend line AMEX:RSP This chart becomes significantly crucial if the trend line is breached. "trend line break" refers to a situation where the price of an asset moves beyond or crosses over a trend line that has been drawn on a price chart. Trend lines are used to represent the direction and strength of a trend in a market. A trend line break can signal a potential change in the trend direction or a shift in market sentiment. Uptrend Line Break: An uptrend line break occurs when the price moves below an ascending trend line. This can indicate a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend or a period of consolidation.
AMEX:RSP
by AlgoTradeAlert
Is the rest of the market joining the rally?The weekly chart (on the bottom) shows that SPY and RSP were highly correlated until early March. After March, we have seen the two separate in YTD returns. The correlation coefficient confirms this break in trading. The breakdown in correlation between the RSP and SPY is most evident between May and June when RSP lost value and SPY gained value. In the last week, we have seen SPY clear August '22 high. For many, this confirms that a new bull market has begun. While the RSP is far from its August '22 high, we saw it break a short-term resistance level yesterday (6/13/23). The correlation coefficient is also rising back towards 1. It appears that RSP is beginning a new leg up. I believe a new leg up in the RSP confirms the Bull case for the SPY. With the Fed decision this week and both equities close to a support/resistance line, I am also watching for the invalidation of this breakout in the RSP and SPY. For me, that would be both equities closing below their near support/resistance lines.
AMEX:RSPLong
by Ronald_Ryninger
Stock Market Death Cross, Impending Earnings RecessionRSP was trading below the 200 day moving average in the after hours. I wonder if it is going to open that way tomorrow. Also the 63 day moving average, which represents the quarterly moving average has fallen below the 200 day moving average as well. Not too often does this happen and more downside doesn't follow in the weeks to come. From a pivot point perspective the total market is also trading below the pivot entering the month of June signaling that although mega caps have rallied in a major way, the average analyst consensus is a bearish stance. I say that as we've recently seen recent reports that further margin contraction is under way and an earnings recession later in the year is coming. Check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Amazon and Spotify to learn more about stock trading and investing.
AMEX:RSPShort
by D1Finance
S&P Equal Weight Index (RSP Daily analysis)The volume below is very thin (yellow highlight), and the chart trend is downward and weakening. The equal weight index actually performed a little better than the weighted index during the selloff, retracing only 42% versus SPY 50% during the period of Covid low in March 2020 to all time high in January 2022. There are three lines of potential support, all at volume points of control as well as Gann lines: 138.96, or -1.8% from 5/12 close at 141.52 135.31, or -4.4% from 5/12 close 130.2, or 8.0 % from 5/12 close I'm inclined to believe the 8% scenario is most probable, since typical corrections (which I believe is imminent) range around 7%.
AMEX:RSPShort
by UnknownUnicorn13101
The Deflationary SpiralAll credit booms brought about by Central Bank-induced artificially low interest rates and loose lending standards end in busts. In the recessionary phase that follows the boom, credit becomes much harder to attain and many over-leveraged businesses end up going bankrupt. The recessionary phase reveals the malinvestments and unsound business decisions that were made during the economic boom. Businesses & Consumers deleverage their balance sheets either through paying down debt or through bankruptcy. As loan demand falls & credit conditions tighten, debt issuance falls, which reduces the supply of money into the economy because the vast majority of currency that enters the economy is loaned into existence. When credit growths slows and begins contracting alongside a falling money supply, inventory piles up and profits & margins fall while consumer spending falls. Businesses are then forced to sell at discounted rates to liquidate inventory in anticipation of weak future demand, which further reduces profits & margins and leads to increased unemployment and weaker levels of consumption. The “Deflationary Spiral” subsides and an economic recovery can take place once balance sheets are back to healthy levels which can support debt accumulation, capital investment recovers, and once large amounts of the “bad” debts taken on during the economic boom have been deleveraged. US M2 Money Supply is currently down -4.2% YoY using March 2023 data, the largest monetary contraction in the USA since the Great Depression. Using data going back to 1870, every time the money supply contracted by over 1% YoY the stock market had a large correction and the economy fell into a severe & lengthy contraction with unemployment reaching at least 7%. A banking panic always accompanied those contractions as well. Commercial bank deposits are currently down around -5% YoY, the most since the Great Depression. Total commercial bank deposits didn’t even contract during the early 1990s Savings & Loan Crisis. With money supply shrinking and the majority of banks unable to pay competitive rates on deposits, deposits will continue falling and more bank failures will occur. The large amounts of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets represent another impediment to loan growth and banks have continued to raise reserves for multiple quarters in response to rising default rates. Fed research from the Fed Bank of Saint Louis show bank lending conditions (measured by percentage of banks tightening lending conditions) are comparable to early 2008 & late 2000. Bank lending conditions are a leading indicator for unemployment. The unemployment rate currently is still below 4%, but with the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index currently at -7.2% and the bond yield curve still inverted, many reliable economic datapoints show that the economy is closer to the beginning of this business cycle downturn and debt deleveraging than the end. Yield curve inversions & Conference Board LEI’s have been some of the best leading indicators for a recession since the 1970s. Since 1968, any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession. The Credit Managers’ Index newly released data for April showed that the index for rejection of new credit applications (within the service sector) was 45.9, its lowest level since March 2009. The US Consumer is beginning to run dry on savings. The majority of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and consumer credit growth (which had been expanding rapidly in 2022) has slowed markedly. Total consumer credit growth has fallen about 50% YoY (using the 3 month average of data from December - February). After falling below 3.2% in the summer of 2022, the US savings rate is still low by historic standards, currently 5.1%. Announced job cuts for the month of March were 89.7K, higher than the first 3 months of the 2008 recession. US large corporate bankruptcy filings (Bankruptcies of companies with over $50M in liabilities) from Jan-April totaled 70, seven more than during the same length of time in 2008. Student loan debt payments are set to resume again this summer, which will further reduce consumer spending. US Consumer sentiment levels measured by University of Michigan hit the lowest levels ever (going back to 1952) in the summer of 2022, and they have been fluctuating around 2H 2008 & 1H 2009 levels ever since. Delinquency rates on things like automobiles, credit cards, and commercial real estate loans are soaring. Cox Automotive found 1.89% of auto loans in January were "severely delinquent" and at least 60 days behind payment, the highest rate since the data series began in 2006. In March, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills was 5.3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.58% in May 2021 and higher than in 2009, the peak of the financial crisis, according to data from Fitch Ratings. Retail sales are an economic metric that track consumer demand for finished goods. US real retail sales down -2.1% and EU real retail sales are -9.9%. German real retail sales for the month of march just came in at -15.8% YoY! According to Bloomberg, Global PC shipments are down close to 30% YoY & Apple computer shipments are down about 40% YoY. In the past 50 years, US Gross fixed capital formation has only gone negative in the US before and during recessions. It is now negative and there has never been a false positive. Data from the Mortgage bankers association showed a -39% YoY decline in Mortgage purchase applications, a decline to its lowest levels in over 26 years. US Building Permits are down -24% YoY. Housing Starts YoY are down -17% YoY. Existing Home Sales are down -22%. Every national housing downturn in the past 45 years has taken at least 4 years from peak to trough prices, indicating that the current housing downturn is likely to continue for at least 2-3 years. Every FED Regional bank report on manufacturing (using a 3 month average of the data) is in a contraction. The April Philadelphia FED Manufacturing index came in at -31.3. Since 1969, Every reading under -30 was either in a recession or a few months away from one. April Richmond FED Service Sector Index registered a -23, the same number as in Nov 2008 & Feb 2009 & worse than Jan 2009 which was -20 (August and September 2008 were -10 for reference). US manufacturing production is down -.5% YoY. March 2023 ISM PMI data was also very insightful. USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) was 46.3, its lowest level since June 2009 (excl. H1 2020). For reference, in the 08 recession, it wasn’t until October 2008 that the ISM manufacturing PMI fell under 46.3, over 9 months into that recession. USA ISM Manufacturing New Orders (March) was 44.3, its lowest level since March 2009 (excl. January 2023 & H1 2020), USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March) came in at 51.2, its lowest level since Jan. 2010 (excl. H1 2020). The US Stock market is trading at one of the highest Shiller PE ratios & stock market capitalization to GDP ratios in history. Present day stock market valuations are rivaled only by the Roaring 20s Bubble (1929), The Nifty-Fifty Bubble (late 1960s/early 1970s) & the 1999/2000 Dot-com Bubble. All 3 of those examples were followed by the most negative 10 year real returns in USA stock market history going back to 1913. Over 40% of businesses in the Russell2000 are unprofitable and over 1/5 of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Clearly, the stock markets as of April 2023 are still in bubble levels of overvaluation. Looking at the data in aggregate, I believe that a recession is currently occurring. Assuming earnings fall by about 30% peak to trough, using a conservative average from the past 4 US recessions, I assume S&P annualized earnings will fall to around 155. Using a conservative valuation multiple of 14, that gives a target price of about 2,200 for the S&P500 that is likely to be hit in Q4 2023 or 2024. Thank you for reading, Alexander Charles Lambert
AMEX:RSPShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
ALT SP 500 WAVE STRUCTURE IS STILL VALID 4th wave The chart posted is the alt wave structure . there is a cycle low due 12/16 and odds favor the last grasp up into jan 3/10 . I still need time for the 2023 forecast as it is a very neg cycle I am working on the time spirals still and it take hours to back check the data back to 1902 . So for now I still feel that we are now in dec late 1973 . The cycle projection from dec forecast model was spot on for the low due 10/4 to the 20th focus on the 10th and a target of 3510/3490 . I am working on the math > I can tell everyone that 2023 will see another drop and decline with the market going from inflation to a massive deflation cycle as the chart of housing is just starting to roll over. As the 40 plus year bull market in BONDS has ended and we just are going back to mean in RATES I do not see rates ever going back to under 2/2.5 in the 10 yr and I have a view that we will see a debt implosion The final bear market low should be oct 2023 and sideways to down into oct 2024 The DEPRESSION LOW
AMEX:RSP
by wavetimer
ALL INDEXES SAME PATTERN ABC DECLINE INTO .382 AND 50 % IHAVE NOW COVERED ALL NET SHORTS .I am now moving to a net LONG AT 50 TO 75 % as of this morning . In fact TROW model told me we would see this sharp drop into cycle low due now TROW also dropped to a perfect .618 at todays low at 109.40 the low 109.18 I am net long and out of any shorts at this point BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER I will be posting the long term update and forecast as I did in dec 22 2021 over this weekend . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
AMEX:RSPLong
by wavetimer
RSP levelsHere's RSP levels on the 1-day chart before today's FOMC interest rate decision at 2pm: SMA's SMA50 = $140 SMA100 = $141 SMA150 = $141 SMA200 = $144 SMA20 Triangular Trend Channel top = $158 R3 = $155 R2 = $152 R1 = $149 pivot = $146 S1 = $143 S2 = $140 S3 = $137 bottom = $134 Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends... *3x lucky 7s of trading* 7pt Trading compass: Price action, entry/exit Volume average/direction Trend, patterns, momentum Newsworthy current events Revenue Earnings Balance sheet 7 Common mistakes: +5% portfolio trades, capital risk management Beware of analyst's motives Emotions & Opinions FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd Lack of planning & discipline Forgetting restraint Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation 7 Important tools: Trading View app!, Brokerage UI Accurate indicators & settings Wide screen monitor/s Trading log (pencil & graph paper) Big, organized desk Reading books, playing chess Sorted watch-list Checkout my indicators: Fibonacci VIP - volume Fibonacci MA7 - price pi RSI - trend momentum TTC - trend channel AlertiT - notification tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator www.tradingview.com
AMEX:RSP
by Options360
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low 33$SPX posted its second consecutive week of gain (+3.95%), reclaiming its 50-day moving average (declining) during the week. $SPX is currently 5.6% away from recapturing its 200-day moving average. There is a growing belief among market participants that the Fed will soften its approach after the November meeting. The policy move from the Bank of Canada this week further fueled this notion. The Bank of Canada raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points versus an expected 75 basis points. The European Central Bank, however, delivered a 75 basis point increase for its key policy rates, as expected. Market participants digested a slew of economic data this week that both supported and undermined the notion that the Fed will soften its approach soon. Some of the data releases included: September PCE Prices 0.3% The key takeaway from the report is that with continued income growth and a slightly hotter than expected Core PCE price growth, the Fed has an argument to maintain its aggressive rate hike course. Weekly Initial Claims 217K The key takeaway from the report is that the initial claims data suggest the labor market continues to hold up well, which of course is something that will continue to draw the Fed’s attention. Q3 GDP-Adv. 2.6% The key takeaway from the report is that it ends a two-quarter streak of negative GDP prints. It also suggests the economy held up well in the third quarter as it started to acclimate to rising interest rates. Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased a solid 3.3%. October Consumer Confidence 102.5 The key takeaway from the report is that consumers’ concerns about inflation picked up again in October on the back of rising gas and food prices. Falling Treasury yields were also a big support factor for the stock market rally during the week. The support to watch for this week is revised up to 3,720 level, a beach of $SPX rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,110, 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,720 level, beaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,490 level.
AMEX:RSP
by jfsrevg
RSP levelsRSP 1 day chart levels: SMA50 = 136.86 SMA100 = 138.58 SMA150 = 142.58 SMA200 = 145.58 SMA20 trend channel top = 143.10 R3 = 140.45 R2 = 137.80 R1 = 135.15 pivot = 132.50 S1 = 129.85 S2 = 127.20 S3 = 124.55 bottom = 121.90 Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends... *3x lucky 7s of trading* 7pt Trading compass: Price action, entry/exit Volume average/direction Trend, patterns, momentum Newsworthy current events Revenue Earnings Balance sheet 7 Common mistakes: +5% portfolio trades, capital risk management Beware of analyst's motives Emotions & Opinions FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd Lack of planning & discipline Forgetting restraint Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation 7 Important tools: Trading View app!, Brokerage UI Accurate indicators & settings Wide screen monitor/s Trading log (pencil & graph paper) Big, organized desk Reading books, playing chess Sorted watch-list Checkout my indicators: Fibonacci VIP - volume Fibonacci MA7 - price pi RSI - trend momentum TTC - trend channel AlertiT - notification tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator www.tradingview.com
AMEX:RSP
by Options360
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight)$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low +17) The stock market came into this shortened week of trading on a three-week losing streak. It looked on Tuesday as if that streak might be extended to four weeks, but there was an abrupt turn in sentiment that powered a strong move in the major indices over the last three sessions from 3,900 support level. The losing streak was eventually broken and both the $SPX and $QQQ had reclaimed a posture back above their 50-day moving averages. The resilience to selling efforts in the face of negative developments has fostered a sense that the market has priced in the near-term rate hikes already after enduring three, consecutive weeks of losses. At Tuesday's low, the $SPX was down 10.1% from the intraday high it saw on August 16, so there has been an added sense that the market had gotten oversold and was due for a technical bounce. At the current juncture, the mid-term downtrend remains intact as $SPX remains trading below its declining 200-day moving average, and AVWAP from all time high. The support to watch for this week remains at 3,900 level, the recent lowest level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,212 AVWAP from all time high. Immediate resistance at declining 200-day moving average and downtrend line. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,900 recent low. next support at 3,800.
AMEX:RSP
by jfsrevg
Breadth has been strong and this week will be critical for $RSPThe market as a whole needs this rally to have healthy breadth and so far that's what it looks like is happening, a broad-based rally. It closed above its 200 DMA for the first time since April 21st (albeit by just 13 cents) which is also when the downtrend started. The downtrend has been thoroughly broken. Looking for 2-3 more strong daily closes above the 200 DMA to be relatively certain that the rally will continue and we could be back in a bull market.
AMEX:RSP
by EBITDAtiger