Why is High Yield bond space so confident and expensive?To be honest, I have no clue why the High Yield and Junk bonds are performing so well, especially given the fact more than 80 % of these bonds are trading at a negative real yield. Probably there's still too much liquidity in the market, or as it often happens, portfolio managers just keep ignoring all risks, and happy to pick up every penny to make slightly higher yield, though yield spreads over government bonds are super tight and hardly price any reasonable risk premium. Or there might be lot more sophisticated reasoning and factors playing role behind. Anyhow, it is all fine until one major seller pulls the trigger, liquidity dries up, or some forced redemption happens in HYG or JNK, or from hedge funds running similar strategies.
Never mind, a trend is a trend until it ends. However there is a warning signal on this chart of the Short High Yield ETF (SJB), and that is a quite visible positive momentum divergence. Maybe the time of a change in trend is getting closer.
Levels to watch closely are: 17,78 / 17,84 / 18,00
