SLV trade ideas
Silver island reversal confirmed on 30 minutes chart, for nowI have been bearish on silver since a while ago with a few post outlining negative divergences. looks like we did have a October top as of last Friday. We will closely monitor to see if the trend will continue on the downside, until at least early to mid December......
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
Personally I hold both long term long positions and occasionally short term short position, for disclosure purpose.
Long Silver herefaked a sellout. As usually those fakes are usually followed through with lots of people shorting and/or exiting off Silver. Hence the recent rise in SI, ES, NQ. Those should continue as a "NEW" bullish wave started. This wave should last between now and possible election if it can stretch that long.
Long Silver earlier this morning
OPENING (IRA): SLV JANUARY 15TH 18.5 SHORT PUT... for .48/contract.
Notes: Selling some more SLV (30-day at 47.7%), as well as collating my "ladder" into a single post. Will add in a December monthly "rung" once that becomes available, assuming the volatility hangs in there. Collected 1.74/contract in total.
Here's the way I look at this trade relative to one put on in GLD:
Currently, GLD is trading at 178.16, SLV at 22.65, so GLD is about 8 times the notional value of SLV here. The November 20th GLD 15 delta 184 strike is paying 1.14; the November 20th SLV 14 delta strike at 19. .31 and 8 x .31 = 2.48. Consequently, you're getting more than 2 x "bang for your buck" in risk premium as a function of stock price in SLV than GLD here, primarily due to the differential between SLV 30-day IV at 47.7% versus GLD's 20.4%.
SLV - if it looks like a bear.....This correction has certainly been difficult to deal with. I've outlined two possible scenarios, though I lean more towards the bearish one. If SLV breaks the multi-month (magenta-colored) support line, I'd say we're heading down towards th e~$17.50 level where there is also a volume-defined base. However, if the support holds, we could get a "W" shaped ST recovery and continue the bull trend.
SLV Long over $24.24AMEX:SLV Expecting some trouble ahead at $24.24 but once we clear that, we should re-test $27.
MACD crossing over and curling back up points to bullish momentum.
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SLV Silver TrustLooks good so far. Right now projecting around ~26 for this move. Could see some extended waves to push it higher.
More bearish under ~22.4
Breakout or EMA RetestLooks like the wedge is tightening on SLV. If we don’t see a breakout, we’ll retest 50ma and possibly 100ma. Both great zones to buy calls or take long positions.
SLV Upside SLV has been taking a beating towards the latter half of September. It gapped down pretty drastically from the 25 range down to 21s but over the last week, it has been building up nicely.
I will be watching SLV this week, and hoping for a gap up to the high 23's low 24's. Ideally, we can get some action trapped in the box, like we saw during Aug until late September
I think we can get action back up to the mid 25's as RSI looks like it has some more room to run, and received buy signal with MACD. Also price action crossed 20 MA and using 50 EMA as support today.
SLV - chart perking up again!SLV is back in the top half of the flag and looking to take out multiple FIB resistance from $23.50 - $23.75 or so. Filled one gap and working on the next. That should get us back to $25. I think weakness is an opportunity. Daily indicators all looking good!
SLV - One more push down before going for a new high?The wave count suggests we should see one more push lower to finish a 5 waves drop as part of wave (c) of higher degree wave ((iv)).
A drop below 21.60 could get things on track and we finally could see price drop for fifth wave.
Descending Triangle Forming until the ElectionThere is a descending triangle forming until the election, so it will either go up OR down from there. (so not necessarily a short strategy; it could go long) But hopefully, closer to that time, indicators will give a direction.
SLV - still cleaning up!SLV working to clean up the mess inflicted in September. Interesting spot right here at the second gap falloff. Starting to see some higher highs and lows and levels to clear. Indicators are a coin flip but starting to shape up. I like silver to run if stimulus gets done and economy starts to open up.
SLV range bottom setSilver just told us where the bottom of its range will be a couple days ago.
$20.45
$SLV vs $GLD weekly chartratio suggests possibly some more weakness for silver ahead relative to gold with.
SLV updateBroke down below my bearish scenario. Still see possibility of bullish move from here above ~21.5
SLV silver trustLeaning bullish but need to see more wave completion to turn bullish longterm. Also watching for the bearish scenario if it breaks below ~21.7 then possible setup for ~18 range
SLV Making a Move HigherGoing long silver with SLV as it looks to re-test $25 soon.
Not trading advice, do your own diligence.
Happy hunting.
Stimulus News to determine DXY and SLVSLV tried to break the bullish trend and 0.382 Retracement but quickly recovered (no Full bear candle below trend & Retracement). would suggest going into Jan 2021 calls with stop loss at $20. stimulus news remain the main determinant of trend direction. Watch DXY. still learning. let me know your opinions.
Silver seasonality analysis that could helpPlease refer to the following link for a great seasonality analysis from Kitco:
www.kitco.com
If history tells us anything, Silver seasonality shows that October will normally see a bounce up in silver even though it could be short lived . Then from October peak through early December it is normally a down trend. Mid December through February will a good bullish period for Silver, so is end of June through mid September that is the second bullish phase for silver.
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
