SLV trade ideas
SLV - 17.69 possible resistanceI had been watching the 17.69 level as a possible "neckline" for a reverse head and shoulders formation. Strength continues so just sitting back and letting it play out. As always, I try hard to suppress my optimism but the strength has definitely shown proof that the move is impulsive.
Silver ETF Just Had a Golden CrossAs we cited yesterday, a “ weak dollar ” trend is taking shape in the currency markets. This has been accompanied by strength in commodities like copper, gold and silver.
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) could be the most interesting today because its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) just rose above its 200-day SMA, resulting in a “Golden Cross” for the Silver ETF.
SLV has also squeezed into a tight range for the last 1-1/2 months as copper and gold have run. This creates the potential for a breakout.
Price action has taken the shape of an ascending triangle in the last three weeks. There’s been a series of higher lows and resistance is around $17.
Interestingly, SLV had a similar pattern in April and May before moving above $15.
SLV - Looking ImpulsiveMy expectation for some downside action last week did not occur. On Friday, thought it was going to happen with a quick slam down to 16.30 but by the time I could blink, it was quickly rising back up. Such a bid in the paper market is to say the least, a bit surprising after the long, sustained selling that we have seen for years. I guess I'm not used to it at all.
When looking at the weekly line chart, the two corrections appear to be text book Elliott Wave Theory with the wave 2 correction being a zig-zag and the wave 4 correction being a flat. It's a bit confusing as we see that wave 1 might have only been 3 waves instead of 5. Still expecting some sell at least to complete an A-B-C correction but if the wave 4 is a flat, then we might only expect price to drop to 16.20 completing the formation.
If this is a bullish wave, Wave 5's in commodities are generally the strongest so perhaps a push up to the 20 level can be possible. In the end, for me the signals are mixed and confusing. I continue to accumulate on the physical side and have cut my paper options to only slightly bullish with long 2022 LEAPs. Most of the 2021 LEAPs have been sold or spread off.
SLV : CATCHING UP TO GOLDJust as Gold is breaking out to new highs, Silver is potentially on a juncture where it could continue is intermediate uptrend. Fibonacci Price Extensions and Elliot Wave analysis applied. SIL (silver miners ETF) already breaking out from consolidation observed thru On Balance Volume (OBV) indicating buying pressure.
$SLV Lines Up Potential Bull Market Trend AheadSLV put in a perfect candidate for a long-term cycle low with the dive under $12 in March because it sliced through stops for even the most committed longs, leading to a world where metals are strong and stimulus is through the roof, forcing those same victims of the liquidity crash to stampede back in.
Bulls shouldn't hang on under $13.75 at this point.