SLV trade ideas
Bullish LongtermSilver is having a hard time with all the decent earnings reports and greed overwhelming wall street.
Longterm however, silver is posed to outperform, and continue performing.
Gotta find me some miners with good dividends.
Suggestions appreciated. :)
SLV - Can Copper's Basebuilding in 1999-2001 Show Silver's Path?
Copper had a long term double bottom similar to what silver. Copper took some time to work through the base and eventually test the previous high and then explode. Interesting to see the interaction of copper price versus the 50 and 250 day EMAs. The crossover of the 50 and 250 also was a key sign of strength. Silver seems to be on a similar path, offering significant upside, if copper's past actions are any clue.
SLV - It's Not as Bad as You ThinkMany lament as gold continues to forge ahead, apparently soon to hit the highs, while silver seems to languish, continuing to get smacked down over and over again. A weekly look comparison however shows that Silver has pretty much tracked gold over time and is poised to break out to the upside.
Again, patience continues to be required as the potential for more sideways action is possible. The weekly line chart shows the possibility of a reverse head and shoulders pattern that can drag this out for yet another month or so before the next leg up. There is no telling on this though. I've been long over the past few years and it seems that whenever I want to throw in the towel and sell some of my paper silver, it shoots up the next day.
I have to keep reminding myself that selling at 17 or 18 is not why I am accumulating a position both in the paper products, mining and streamer shares, and physicals. The very long term channel shows prices hitting 70s and some suggest even 100 or better.
As one commentator on YouTube suggested, it only takes one company producing solar panels or some other product that depends on silver saying that production has slowed due to their inability to get enough silver. At that point, our only risk is that the government confiscates our silver due to National Security concerns. Hope not.
SLV - Post-Slam down ProjectionsMust admit that these regular-occurring slamdowns is even starting to affect me. I had previously been conditioned to "buy" but this has continued on for years now and I stepped back from buying more. Perhaps this can indicate that in general, the bulls are giving up. I suppose that is why I like to frequently buy the physical silver and gold. I look at that a bit differently than the ETF trades.
That being said, technically, SLV has only retraced back to the 50% Fibonacci level from its last major top. In David Halsey's Trading the Measured Move book, this is the level when the algorithms come in to buy. The target is the -.236 mark. If this plays out, the projected channel shows that this target should hit by mid-April.
SLV Continuing ConsolidationThe Head and Shoulders look continues and the measurement shows that a move to around 16.16 is in the cards. Seems like silver is always in a correction/consolidation phase. Quite the opposite feel that we have in stocks where any little dip is immediately bought. Bought some puts when I posted the head and shoulders item. But remain very long both physicals and LEAPs.
A Pirate Adventure: Bull Flag Breakout ContinuationAhoy mates! Let us prepare for perhaps the greatest part of this pirate adventure. The battle against all headwinds seems near an end and our treasure is once again in sight! Time to raise our sails!
TA: Seems like we just muddled through a period of consolidation after breaking out of the bull flag a few weeks ago. Friday, SLV started rising with great RSI strength which is a sign that a much stronger rally lies ahead. Time to hop on but stay cautious to any sudden reversal. Once we are through the previous high, sailing *should* be fairly smooth, at least to the 19.x level.
Good luck mates!
Silver Short SqueezeAfter several years of accumulation, the up move begins with a stop hunt out of the triangle to get everyone short and to stop out weak longs. Now that the weak longs are out of the picture, most of the long positions are in the hands of the strong players who are holding for the big move up. Shorts will be forced to cover once this bull flag completes by the end of the month, adding more buying pressure to breakout of any resistance levels.
SLVs Next MoveSilver analysts are divided on where the Wave count is. Some suggest that we are in a B wave correction to a longer term move down. Others suggest that we are in a wave 5 of a bullish move. I side with this interpretation. If correct, it appears that we may be completing a minor wave 2 of the expected 5 wave move up. As mentioned several times, wave 5 moves in commodities often are the strongest while in most other instruments, wave 3 tends to be the longest.
Usually, according to Elliott Wave theory, either wave 3 or wave 5 extends. In the major wave 3, we do not see any extensions so it's possible that this major wave 5 may be explosive.
Fundamentally, silver supply and demand numbers indicate annual shortages while production numbers continue to decline annually. When looking at the longer term performance of silver versus gold, gold has retraced close to 618% of its decline from the major peak in 2011 while silver struggles to even get to the .236% fib level. The gold/silver ratio reaches toward 90 even though some silver producers report that they are pulling out gold and silver at an 8:1 ratio.
There is no doubt that there are major price dislocations in all of the markets as interest rates remain historically low and the federal reserve continues to inject liquidity, pushing up risk assets ever higher. While silver has not participated in this general rise, a historical price review shows that silver has made major bottoms consistent with stock market bottoms. Silver's major low in 2008 coincides with the low point of the last Recession.
So the bottom line is this, if this is a B wave with a major C wave down to come, don't expect to find a safe haven in stocks. It may in fact be an indicator that the economy is heading in to a recession. WIth the economy currently firing on all cylinders with Trump keeping the pedal to the metal, I'm not seeing any sign of recession. So while the market timing may be distorted, I continue to buy physicals for the very long term and use LEAP options to juice my portfolio. While my long term target based on channels suggest 70s, others suggest that silver can move above $100/ounce. With such a small market, should funds decide to take even small positions in silver, demand will greatly overwhelm supply. Only time well tell if this scenario plays out but there is no denying that silver is undervalued especially when compared to other investment assets (including junk bonds).
SLV Looking for 16.55Consolidation wave in play here with a target of 16.55. Whether this is a complete wave 2 correction or Wave A of an A-B-C correction, is unknown. I'll plan to buy some shorter term duration calls, perhaps March, at 16.55.
SLV - Progress ReportSLV has completed a five wave up move. As my overall price objective for the main move is at least 19.58, it's my assumption that this was just a larger wave 1. A wave 2 may have already completed with a .382% retracement. There do appear to be 3 waves signifying a corrective wave. Or a larger A-B-C correction might take price down to the 50% fib level of 16.33.
I had previously bought Jan 2020 15-17 call spreads and on the rally, sold off the 15 calls, leaving me short the 17s. One more week is left until January expiration. These short calls closed at 0.13 indicating that the market expects SLV to rise to 17.13 next week.
Strong relationships have been noted with stocks rallying and silver and bonds falling, and vice versa. Could be that stocks have completed a major five wave move up and may begin a corrective wave. IF the correlations continue to hold, one can expect strength in precious metals and bonds.
SLV - 2020 is here!I am expecting good things for silver in the upcoming year. Precious metals and commodities are due! XLE has also done nothing for ten years. SLV appears to have broken out of its flag pattern and an important FIB level after a long consolidation. Based on the impulse leg I am looking for $19.63 or so for this move. Silver miners making new highs still but looking a little tired at this point. This is a long term buy and hold for me and 2020 should see some nice gains.
Silver Elliot Wave Trend AnalysisBy this count, it appears we may be in wave 1 of an impulse count. There's a good deal of overhead resistance at previous highs. My expectation would be to eventually break through this, possibly after a wave 2 down, which would initiate a wave 3 on the way to higher highs.
SLV - Weekly Chart BreakoutThe weekly chart for the iShares Silver ETF shows how it has been pulling back from its recent highs back in early September. The stock broke down in early November but was able to find support along the 50-day EMA line. It has managed to break out again this week as it nears volume levels that will not be able to hold much resistance against the price. Continued strength in price should help a Golden Cross occur to confirm the bullish strength behind this commodity.
I would like to see this ETF clear $17.10 just so it gets above and holds that last volume level but definitely looking promising. My potential price targets are noted.
SLV Triggers Weekly Parabolic BuySilver's strong performance this week triggers the Wilder's parabolic indicator signal. As price breaks through the upper resistance marker, one would buy at this point. In future periods, the dotted line will shift from the upper range of prices to the lower. One would stay long until the bottom signal is breached.
My first target remains 19.54 however, I expect price to break through previous highs to complete the double bottom formation.
SLV Good indicator to watchAs SLV starts to rally and quickly becomes overbought due to recent low volatility, A good indicator to watch now is the BBW. I track it in Excel with the formula stdev(range). As this indicator continues to expand, it shows me that price is moving away from the moving average at a pace quicker than the moving average is rising. As long as this indicator is rising, one wants to stick with the trend. When it reverses, price generally will revert to the moving average or sometimes even reverse to an opposite (oversold in this case) extreme.
Happy Holidays everyone
A Pirate Adventure: Bull flag breakout!Ahoy mates! Looks like we have early signs of a breakout on gusting winds. The treasure may still be ours to discover if we can continue sailing in strength!
First target is a break of the prior highs toward the 20 region. Then, reassess to see if it becomes a subdivided third wave or something else.
Always keep in mind that the officials are still close behind and may shoot down our galleon at any time. Use tight stops.
Silver Looking GoodIf we get a little pullback after the big rally this week this ETF could prove to be a nice swing for next week. The ma's look good either way.
